Age Groups in the 2010 Election

Over the years, the propensity of older persons to turn out to vote at a higher rate than younger age groups has been stronger in midterm elections than in presidential elections (McDonald, 2010). Even in this context, the turnout of voters aged 65 and older was exceptional in the 2010 election, suggesting that they had an especially strong interest in this particular election. Their participation rate increased sharply compared with the 2006 midterm election. They cast 16% more ballots in 2010 than in 2006, while the overall turnout rate of increase (which included these seniors) was just 5% (Minnite, 2010).

What elicited this special interest of older voters in this particular election? To be sure, all Congressional elections are affected somewhat by local considerations and the particular array of candidates for the 435 seats at stake in the House of Representatives. Nonetheless, aggregate nationwide data gathered in the 2010 National Election Pool Poll conducted by Edison Research provide very useful information regarding the opinions and voting preferences of eight age group categories. For a detailed account of the methods used in this national poll, see Edison Research (2010).

In 2012 - according to exit polls - House Democrats won 60 percent of voters ages 18-29, 51 percent of voters ages 30-44, 47 percent of voters ages 45-64, and 44 percent of voters ages 65 and older. That combination was enough to win them a 49 percent to 48 percent plurality of all votes cast for House (even if Republicans still kept a comfortable majority thanks to Democrats' inefficient distribution on the map and redistricting).

But had Democrats won the same levels of support among each age group in 2010, Republicans would still have won a clear plurality of all votes cast that year. How? Voters under the age of 30 were 19 percent of all voters in 2012, but just 12 percent of all voters in 2010. Likewise, voters 65 and up were 17 percent of all voters in 2012, but 21 percent of all voters in 2012 [I think he means 2010]. Herein lies the biggest danger for Democratic candidates in 2014.

Midterm elections have always drawn older voters, and usually drawn white voters, to the polls in disproportionate numbers. Older voters are less transient, have grown deeper roots in their local communities, and pay much more attention to non-presidential elections than their younger counterparts. In the 1980s, that didn't hold partisan consequences. Today, that amounts to a built-in midterm turnout advantage for Republicans.