Putin the revanchist

Post #387,745 by rcareaga 3/19/14 9:10:36 PM Reply	Putin the revanchist I don't think many Americans can appreciate the sense of dislocation and resentment that Russians of Putin's generation and younger (I know a couple of Russian kids, still in their twenties, who are hypernationalistic) must feel over the developments of the last twenty years, although history may yet vouchsafe the USA something like that enlightenment. The USSR was a big swinging dick prior to its terminal decline. Like the USA, and to an even greater extent, it was geographically and culturally separate and self-sufficient; like the USA it was suffused and besotted with a sense of its own virtue and the inevitability of its historical mission and destiny. These are illusions not lightly surrendered. Since 1991 the Russian Federation, the rump USSR, has been variously ignored and condescended to by capital regnant. Most of its former client states have fled its embrace, and smiling NATO has absorbed some former provinces. Attempts to support its historical allies in Serbia were brushed aside. And now Ukraine is making goo-goo eyes at the EU? Consider how the USA might regard Mexico falling under the sway of Zombie Muammar Gaddafi, or however he spells it when he's not drilling his virgins. We don't have to like what VVP has done to Ukraine, but we can certainly recognize that he feels altogether justified in conducting his aggression, and that there is a significant and popular grievance underlying his action. cordially,
Post #387,746 by Another Scott 3/19/14 11:04:05 PM Reply	Even accepting all of that... Yes, too little attention was paid to the feelings in Moscow and the downsides of NATO expansion, for the reasons you outline. If this Wikipedia page is accurate, NATO membership was never a majority opinion in the country. But some politicians there (likely with at least some pushing from the USA), certainly were pushing for it. I didn't realize that Iraq allegations was lurking in the background, too.. http://en.wikipedia....%93NATO_relations In 2002 relations with the governments of the United States and other NATO countries deteriorated after one of the recordings made during the Cassette Scandal revealed an alleged transfer of a sophisticated Ukrainian defense system to Saddam Hussein's Iraq.[20] At the NATO enlargement summit in November 2002, the NATOÂUkraine commission adopted a UkraineÂNATO Action Plan. President Kuchma's declaration that Ukraine wanted to join NATO (also in 2002) and the sending of Ukrainian troops to Iraq in 2003[20] could not mend relations between Kuchma and NATO.[20] Currently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are working with NATO in Iraq.[25] After the Orange Revolution in 2004 Kuchma was replaced by President Viktor Yushchenko [the guy who was poisoned with dioxin] who is a keen supporter of Ukraine's NATO membership.[26] In January 2008 the second Yulia Tymoshenko [the woman just released from prison] cabinet's proposal for Ukraine to join NATO's Membership Action Plan was met with opposition. A petition of over 2 million signatures has called for a referendum on Ukraine's membership proposal to join NATO. The opposition have called for a national referendum to be held on any steps towards further involvement with NATO. In February 2008 57.8% of Ukrainians supported the idea of a national referendum on joining NATO, against 38.6% in February 2007.[27] Ukrainian governments proposal to join the NATO Membership Action Plan On January 16, 2008 United States Senator Richard Lugar announced: "Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and Parliamentary Chairman Arseniy Yatsenyuk have signed the statement calling for consideration on Ukraine's entry into the NATO membership action plan at the Bucharest summit."[28] The Ukrainian parliament headed by chairman Arseniy Yatsenyuk was unable to hold its regular parliamentary session following the decision of the Parliamentary Opposition to prevent the parliament from functioning in a protest against joining NATO. The parliament was blocked from January 25, 2008 [29] till March 4, 2008 (at 29 February 2008 factions leaders agreed on a protocol of mutual understanding).[30] US President George W. Bush and both nominees for President of the United States in the 2008 election, U.S. senator Barack Obama and U.S. senator John McCain, did offer backing to Ukraine's membership of NATO.[31][32][33] Russian reactions were negative. [...] Prime Minister Vladimir Putin allegedly declared at a NATO-Russia summit in 2008 that if Ukraine joined NATO his country could contend to annex the Ukrainian East and Crimea.[75] But even accepting that Putin made his feeling clear years ago, that doesn't give him a pass on what he's done. Euromaidan wasn't about joining NATO. There have been some recent noises that the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement - http://en.wikipedia....ciation_Agreement - has some sort of secret pre-NATO membership language or something, but I don't see it. It looks like Putin was pissed off that Ukraine wouldn't be under his economic and political thumb any more. NATO, and "Nazis", were a convenient excuse. Grabbing Crimea wasn't necessary (the ports and bases there were never in danger), but it was a relatively easy way to punish Ukraine and stick his thumb in the eye of the EU and NATO. Grabbing Crimea risks pushing the rest of Ukraine closer to the EU and maybe, eventually, toward even closer relations with NATO (but not membership). So he may come to regret it. Some (e.g. Lawrence Wilkerson on Chris Hayes's show tonight) are saying that everyone needs to get together, stop talking in apocalyptic language, and agree that Ukraine is a border state that it won't join NATO. Maybe. Talking's good, but Ukraine needs a say on its future. Too much of its recent history has seemingly been overtly dictated by Moscow (poisoning a candidate for head of state isn't subtle) and cold-warriors in DC. However, I don't see Putin feeling that he needs to negotiate anything this soon after "winning" this round. What happens next is anyone's guess. Already Syria is feeling less constrained since they think that Russia won't pressure them along with the west any more. Maybe that will get worse, or maybe things will change in a few months. The G8 meeting was to be in Sochi in early June. Maybe after expressing their disgust by not showing up, maybe things will settle down and head back toward normal shortly afterward. But maybe not. The US election season will start heating up a few weeks later, and Putin may think it would be "fun" to cause some trouble so Obama's party has more troubles. Who knows... Interesting times. :-( FWIW. Cheers, Scott.
Post #387,748 by boxley 3/20/14 12:24:42 AM Reply	delving into a little history russia has a love hate relationship with the west. After the last two go rounds an abiding distrust of letting europe creep close to what it thinks is her natural borders. Ukraine was interested in Nato but europe sensibly put them off. Between Napoleon, germany funding Lenin's spree and Adolph I would suggest that they have a reasonable cause to keep the front door as far away from moscow as possible. That has nothing to do with democracy but realpolitik. Just because we pretend to have a democracy here in america, doesnt mean the rest of the world doesn't see thru the oligarch's that control the american dream. Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 58 years. meep
Post #387,750 by Ashton 3/20/14 12:41:37 AM Reply	Jeez, Box! ..Wish you'd stay in this mode a %greater-than ..that Other-mode, oft associated with creatures who hide under t(r)oll-bridges. Eh? ;^>
Post #387,760 by folkert 3/20/14 11:45:55 AM Reply	I keep telling y'all... He can be this way. I know you see it... but nobody holds his feet to the fire... and in fact well... encourages the other mode. -- greg@gregfolkert.net "No snowflake in an avalanche ever feels responsible." --Stanislaw Jerzy Lec
Post #387,749 by Ashton 3/20/14 12:26:16 AM Reply	Interesting times.. Apparently none of these (legitimate and not-so-much) concerns have--in fact--been hashed-out via any one-to-one, private exchanges. Clearly such face-time Cannot be rebroadcast to anyone (in either camp.) It is the nature of diplomacy that it doesn't work when everyone gets a script. Thanks for a cohesive presentation of a few other aspects--to issues which we may Not/probably cannot resolve via any 'reasonable' public disclosures. (Except at IWE, of course.) ;^> For my own part, I hope that Putin--against his Public-macho displays of aggrieved 2nd-Class status bereavement --is possessed-of a built-in sanity-Editor, one capable of Patience (that is.) Should he go 100% with Ivan (the Terrible one), and with all those enhanced-nukes: global-warming could be enhanced a few thousand mega-tonnes thermal equivalents. :-/ May (also) BHO refrain from any Ultimata; it's the anti-gemütlichkeit path to Perdition City. {{sigh}} Why fight over Real Estate? when the planetary-bearer of those squiggles on a chart shall trump as surely as ... the deck-chair rearrangement on that large ship didn't. Scale!! without relativity? is meaningless.
Post #387,752 by rcareaga 3/20/14 1:36:49 AM Reply	Imagine Canada ...withdrawing from NATO, recalling its ambassador from Washington, inviting the Russians to establish air and naval presences in their provinces. We'd arrange for the overthrow its government, with a new US-installed regime rescinding these arrangements, in a New York minute. In a world governed by the Lollipop Guild, these trespasses against the sovereignty of a weaker neighbor by a stronger would not occur, but...get real. cordially, (recall that in the aftermath of 09/11/01 there was talk in the Cheney Shogunate of pulling Canada "inside our security perimeter," with some of our gauleiters speaking quite openly about the necessity of our northern neighbor yielding a measure of its police powers to US oversight)
Post #387,754 by Another Scott 3/20/14 7:23:21 AM Reply	One could imagine that. There has been talk of the eastern Canadian provinces joining the US if Quebec ever votes to become independent. I don't know how serious the talk is, but it wouldn't involve a US invasion. The UK air force was effectively under SAC military control in the 1950s before they had their own nuclear forces - http://en.wikipedia...._Operational_Plan (some scary stuff is in there!). Lots of weird war planning went on, showing the US feeling and acting like BMOC. We all know that Cheney was (or was reported to be) a war monger. Lots of people apparently went insane after 9/11. Recall the mumblings about putting off the 2004 presidential election "in case" there was a terrorist attack - http://www.nytimes.c...f-vote-delay.html Yes, if there was a sudden change in Canada's leadership that caused it to change alliances, etc., then there would be consternation in DC. Maybe even some plans involving military actions would be drawn up in response. But remember that France left NATO - http://en.wikipedia....French_withdrawal (but, yes, it did not join the Warsaw Pack) without too much consternation from neighbors or the US. But even if that did happen to Canada, I can't see us deciding that we needed to take Windsor, ON, or something. Slicing off parts of a country without going through a slow, well-defined, and reasonably democratic process raises lots of red flags. My $0.02. Cheers, Scott.
Post #387,756 by rcareaga 3/20/14 10:00:48 AM Reply	my scenario was deliberately lurid and obviously implausible, but the intent was to provide a sense of the Russian mindset (into which I do not claim any special insight) as it plausibly appears to me. As to the independent Quebec scenario, I suppose some Anglophones there might stream south as cultural refugees, but the other provinces? How deluded would these commonwealths have to be to bind their fates more closely to that of this savage, predatory, authoritarian oligarchy, this doomed experiment? (The late Robertson Davies had some amusing things to say about Canada, the USA and Mother England. I'll see if I can find them today.) cordially,
Post #387,757 by Another Scott 3/20/14 10:37:38 AM Reply	On Canada... IIRC, one of the arguments was that by being physically separated from the rest of Canada, they would have "no choice" but join the US. A contemporary article (from 1990) - http://articles.chic...meech-lake-quebec Newfoundland joined Canada in 1949 - http://www.ucs.mun.c...ederation1949.htm Yeah, governments have had wild swings in the last 100 years or so, but many in Canada probably wouldn't look too askance at leaving Harper's clutches these days... :-/ Cheers, Scott.
Post #387,783 by Ashton 3/21/14 5:38:41 AM 3/21/14 5:54:18 AM Reply	If we suppose that Putin's take on our corrupt authoritarian oligarchy is similar to yours (and mine), then probably he has little interest in the diplomacy dance, at all. Haven't much idea how many Canadians have pierced the bespattered-veil/shroud? of our self-congratulatory Exceptionalism--do Canadians watch as much crap-TV as Muricans? Next moves? Can.. our plutocrats, via their slogans and $Ts overcome Putin's disdain to sign our dance-card? via similar financial machinations (as created and maintain our 0.001% Overlords,) Disingenuous jingoism -vs- real politik 2014. May the dis-USA Military 2015 be comprised of 90% scions of the Ruling Class: What a Glorious New War! eh? It would be nice to find someone to root-for, trapped as I am, within the belly of one of the beastliest-ever, (scanning all previous dysfunctional empires--just to check.) Guatemala, perhaps? Their Prez appears to be a mensch; lives at home, even. Maybe doesn't possess the requisite two swords to rattle. (Probably with feet-of-clay too; it's all the rage now.) Russkies and their cohorts in the diaspora Will march in solidarity.. Muricans? Hah! what's to fight/die-for Here, which engenders allegiance, such as we have Become. Resignedly... but Cheerfully. Ed: punct. Edited by Ashton March 21, 2014, 05:54:18 AM EDT Expand All History
Post #387,806 by jake123 3/22/14 9:29:46 AM Reply	The likelihood of the Maritimes joining the US in the event of Qc separation is very low. For one thing, there's no guarantee that Quebec would be able to hold on to its Grand Nord; the vast majority of the people that live there are Cree, and they've already stated they would not be interested in remaining within an independent Quebec, many times over many years. As for the Maritime provinces... I think it's highly unlikely that they'd be willing to consider joining the US. For one thing, periphery states don't do so well in the US federation. I could see them deciding to go on alone, but join the US? Not very likely. The likeliest outcome would be continuing to send MPs to the House, with the Grand Nord and Labrador forming the physical connection. If the Quebecois didn't like it, well, it wouldn't be difficult for the Cree to turn off their electricity. It wouldn't take long after that. Mind you, my take is that the likelihood of any of that coming to pass is slim at best. Marois is spinning cotton candy dreams and I'm pretty sure most of the people there know that. What she's really doing is trying the Republican approach of finding an issue to drive a particular segment of the citizenry to the polls, in the hopes of (in this case) picking up some rural ridings so she can get her majority. My feeling is that she's doing a great job of destroying the separatist movement by splitting them down the fault line of the hard nationalists and the folks that actually care about civil liberties.
Post #387,815 by boxley 3/22/14 12:40:21 PM Reply	Maritimes? not likely. I could see Alberta maybe the maritimes would more likely want to be commonwealth and return to the crown if it would have them Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 58 years. meep
Post #387,816 by jake123 3/22/14 12:45:55 PM Reply	Right now Alberta is in a class of its own` I have family out there. They're quite frankly pissed at how things are going. It's not anyone's fault other than their province's, though; the person mostly responsible is an Albertan... and relevantly similarly to how W was a Texan. First as tragedy, second as farce.
Post #387,823 by Another Scott 3/22/14 1:24:00 PM Reply	Very interesting. Thanks.
Post #387,817 by rcareaga 3/22/14 12:50:40 PM Reply	Robertson Davies on Canada The late, great Canadian magical realist had this to say about his country just about thirty-seven years ago: Perhaps we have been a little late in coming to self-recognition. Sometimes when I think of the great world family of English-speaking peoples, I think of Canada as the Daughter Who Stayed at Home. I mean that in 1776 Columbia, a self-willed girl with a strong sense of her own independence, left her motherÂs house, after some high-pitched family rows, and set up a household of her own. At that time Canada elected to stay with Mother. It was not a simple decision, for Columbia offered us all the inducements that naughty girls have at their command; we have not forgotten the bags of gold (we suspect they were of French origin) with which some of your very persuasive citizens—including that extremely persuasive, somewhat ambiguous character Benjamin Franklin—visited us, hoping that we might be bought. But, to continue this simplified version of history, we said: ÂNo, Mother needs us, and we shall always be true to Mother; so long as she needs a faithful daughter, we shall never desert her.Â So what happened? Just what everybody with a knowledge of family behaviour might expect to happen: Columbia, the naughty daughter, prospered mightily and Mother (who always had a sharp eye for success) became very fond of her. And the Good Daughter Who Stayed at Home became, in the course of time, rather a bore. Many years have passed since that decision and that outcome: Mother has been having a rough time, and has taken up with all sorts of rowdy Continental companions. And the Good Daughter has begun, somewhat belatedly, to have some very serious thoughts about her future. Where does it lie? cordially,
Post #387,822 by Another Scott 3/22/14 1:23:40 PM Reply	Excellent. Thanks.
Post #387,831 by Ashton 3/22/14 6:09:03 PM Reply	{{Chortle, long guffaw..}}

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