15 years after the peak

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Post #243,091

1/31/06 9:48:13 PM

15 years after the peak

In countries with economic dominance like ours in the last 400 years, 15 years after the peak saw civil war in 2, and saw signs of it in the third (interrupted by WW I). Placing our peak at 2000, that suggests that somewhere around 2015 we may have an "interesting" year.

Cheers,
Ben

I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)

Post #243,094

1/31/06 10:03:55 PM

the information age is over

information is now commoditized with no special knowledge needed to diseminate same. Gronk now has the ability to serve up the same stuff as Nook by simply getting a comms line and pricing his access a frog hair lower.
People still dont realize this so a ton of cash and profits can still be made by certain people but the wave is over.
Next wave is consolidation of decentralization. The ability to deliver just in time grenades, fresh milk porn, cornflakes and rebar with no advance notice, timely and priced cheaper than the next guy is where the serious cash will be. Ebay is an early form of this.
The new guy will be like taipans and traders of old with the advantage of airconditioning and subcontracting violence, strikes and elimination of rivals. The arms market is also a forerunner of this. It used to be practiced by semi legit guys selling to papered neer do wells, now with the profusion of rogue states with no dicernable big anti US dogs to carefully balance power it is all up for grabs.Russia recognises this and Putin is doing well acting as a proxy for the old USSR.
thanx,
bill

Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free american and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 50 years. meep

NAE report on the impact of offshoring - (Another Scott) - (42) - Jan. 30, 2006, 12:36:53 PM EST

The report seems to have nailed one aspect of the problem - (jake123) - (5) - Jan. 30, 2006, 08:15:15 PM EST

~9 years before that breakdown is likely -NT - (ben_tilly) - (4) - Jan. 30, 2006, 08:51:44 PM EST

Certainly hope that's a lousy estimate, - (Ashton) - (2) - Jan. 31, 2006, 07:02:25 AM EST

15 years after the peak - (ben_tilly) - (1) - Jan. 31, 2006, 09:48:13 PM EST

the information age is over - (boxley) - Jan. 31, 2006, 10:03:55 PM EST

Rereading that book now. -NT - (inthane-chan) - Jan. 31, 2006, 11:47:53 AM EST

Nasscom - 10% - 20% India Wage Hikes Anually - (gdaustin) - (35) - Jan. 31, 2006, 10:04:30 PM EST

well a co-worker from that part of the globe - (boxley) - Jan. 31, 2006, 10:06:43 PM EST

I had a friend just experience that - (broomberg) - Jan. 31, 2006, 11:23:24 PM EST

Toyota doesn't outsource much - (tonytib) - (32) - Feb. 1, 2006, 11:49:29 AM EST

Their designers are plenty good for me - (ben_tilly) - (23) - Feb. 1, 2006, 08:42:00 PM EST

If I still drove, I would second that. - (Silverlock) - Feb. 1, 2006, 09:34:08 PM EST

Quality vs. Cheap Price - (gdaustin) - Feb. 1, 2006, 11:42:50 PM EST

Ah, so it's YOUR fault the Toyota Camry exists! :-) -NT - (Meerkat) - (20) - Feb. 2, 2006, 01:54:16 AM EST

Not mine alone - (ben_tilly) - (19) - Feb. 2, 2006, 07:05:04 PM EST

Camry isn't ugly, just generic - (tonytib) - (18) - Feb. 2, 2006, 07:59:51 PM EST

If you get a Mazda6, get the MPS. - (Meerkat) - Feb. 3, 2006, 08:20:34 PM EST

I'll believe it after I sit in it - (ben_tilly) - (16) - Feb. 3, 2006, 08:31:16 PM EST

sentra would be okay but my rio would be a chore -NT - (boxley) - Feb. 3, 2006, 10:54:42 PM EST

It's all about the seats. - (pwhysall) - (14) - Feb. 3, 2006, 11:41:39 PM EST

Just spent today as a passenger in a Lexus - (broomberg) - (2) - Feb. 4, 2006, 01:04:45 AM EST

My Dad bought an LS 430. - (Another Scott) - (1) - Feb. 4, 2006, 10:52:47 AM EST

I was in the front seat - (broomberg) - Feb. 4, 2006, 11:33:34 AM EST

Toyota works without tilting the seat - (ben_tilly) - (10) - Feb. 4, 2006, 11:49:13 PM EST

I tilt the seat in everything I can. - (broomberg) - (7) - Feb. 5, 2006, 09:42:06 AM EST

You're probably a lethal danger to everyone else on the road - (CRConrad) - (6) - Feb. 5, 2006, 04:18:04 PM EST

Maybe - (broomberg) - (1) - Feb. 5, 2006, 04:20:06 PM EST

Your driving was surprisingly sane -NT - (ben_tilly) - Feb. 6, 2006, 02:31:37 AM EST

You'd have a coronary seeing Chicago drivers. - (Another Scott) - (3) - Feb. 5, 2006, 04:27:58 PM EST

What was old is new again... - (jb4) - Feb. 6, 2006, 06:03:13 PM EST

those are only the "South Siders" - (lincoln) - (1) - Feb. 19, 2006, 12:06:22 AM EST

What about Pilsen, Little Village, Logan Square... - (jb4) - Feb. 20, 2006, 01:51:40 PM EST

you are short torso, he is longish - (boxley) - (1) - Feb. 5, 2006, 10:55:35 PM EST

Thank you for figuring out why I have more of a problem - (ben_tilly) - Feb. 6, 2006, 02:41:37 AM EST

Honda Already Has - IMO - (gdaustin) - (7) - Feb. 1, 2006, 11:59:19 PM EST

It's still ugly - (tonytib) - (6) - Feb. 2, 2006, 02:16:39 PM EST

Being a Yank, you are allowed to be wrong on these things. - (CRConrad) - (5) - Feb. 2, 2006, 03:48:36 PM EST

Right, I'm not an arrogant euro-weenie - (tonytib) - (1) - Feb. 2, 2006, 04:04:54 PM EST

ICLRPD: Right, I'm not an arrogant euro-weenie (new thread) - (Steve Lowe) - Feb. 2, 2006, 04:12:06 PM EST

coming from a bloody finn! what cheek! - (boxley) - (2) - Feb. 2, 2006, 05:43:42 PM EST

Finn my arse. - (pwhysall) - (1) - Feb. 2, 2006, 05:46:56 PM EST

Is that "misplaced" as in "lost"? - (jb4) - Feb. 2, 2006, 05:57:49 PM EST

Holding my breath, I am...
115 ms