Post #220,032
8/18/05 10:29:39 PM
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Note...
Most people these days are buying houses with a lot less than 20% down. Think 10%. Or 5%.
I won't comment on how wise that is, but the question these days is whether you can afford the mortgage payment, not whether you have enough down.
As for whether it gets better, it definitely can. If you're making more than you're spending, then it is already getting better. If you're out of debt, then you're in a position to start making money on what you've saved. Build up an emergency cushion, then start investing. It is hard to see the rate of change, but when it takes off, it takes off nicely. If you are investing a constant sum every year and your investments average 10%/year, then after 5 years of investing, you've made 54 cents for every dollar invested, after 10, 85 cents for every dollar that you put in, after 15, 140 cents, and after 20 years, 320 cents.
If the investment return is only 5%, then those figures become 36, 42, 58 and 79 cents respectively. (Followed by 104 and 136.)
If you've worked off a debt, then you are right now climbing out of an inverse hole with a higher interest rate.
In recent decades, stocks return about 10%/year. But after tax returns are going to be lower, and they vary a lot. Plus you're not going to want all of your savings in something that risky.
I don't know how old Susan is, but most women can safely push off baby plans into their 30s. Starting at 35 you're supposed to have extra tests. For most women, the clock stops ticking around 38 - at the start of that year most can have a baby, at the end most can't. If you don't think you can afford a baby yet, you may not have to.
Of course looking forward to the future is always risky. You can lose your job. You may find that your salary options improve unexpectedly. House prices generally go up. But lots think that they may go down quite a bit soon. (Which won't mean that they are more affordable - housing prices and interest rates are inversely correlated so that the mortgage payment and rent stay connected.)
Random book recommend: Smart Couples Finish Rich.
Cheers,
Ben
I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
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Post #220,052
8/18/05 11:30:45 PM
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My wife's mother was 42 when she was born in 1961.
There are always counter-examples. I just thought I'd throw one out.
It does get riskier as the woman gets older though. And it can be hard on the children to have old parents...
Cheers,
Scott.
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Post #220,056
8/18/05 11:32:34 PM
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Re: My wife's mother was 42 when she was born in 1961.
Aging parents is really hard on children. I'm at the other end of the scale; I'll be 38 when my son is 18, and I'm really glad it worked out that way.
Peter
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Post #220,057
8/18/05 11:35:05 PM
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They ain't called "tax deductions" for nothin' :)
Just thought I'd point out that while you do have to spend money on the little buggers, at least you end up with a tax refund in April. And, even though you are looking at the expense of childcare, that too is deductible.
FWIW,
Amy
"The notion of limited government and frugal government has been shattered by this administration, which cares far less about limited government than it does in building conservative government - a government with huge payoffs to corporate America," Allan Lichtman, a presidential historian at American University in Washington.
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Post #220,058
8/18/05 11:39:22 PM
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Not in the UK, you don't.
Peter
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Post #220,067
8/18/05 11:51:00 PM
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Sux 2BU :-D
"The notion of limited government and frugal government has been shattered by this administration, which cares far less about limited government than it does in building conservative government - a government with huge payoffs to corporate America," Allan Lichtman, a presidential historian at American University in Washington.
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Post #220,061
8/18/05 11:42:43 PM
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Yup.
I went to high school with a guy who got his girlfriend pregnant, and married her, before he graduated. I'm sure it was hard on them early on, but I'll bet they were very glad their offspring was out of the house by the time they were 35. Physically, we're much better equipped to handle the stress of raising children when we're younger. (Usually not financially and often not emotionally though.)
In my wife's case, she was always worried about her parents dying, even when she was a little girl. "They were always so old!" Her father was over 60 when she graduated from high school....
There's also the example of the fellow at work who adopted a young child when he was about 55. Although I applaud him for wanting to help raise a child in need, I also really wonder about his thought processes...
Cheers,
Scott.
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Post #220,066
8/18/05 11:48:17 PM
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Teenagers shouldn't have to care for their parents, imho
When the hormones are raging, you're trying to pass your exams and the whole world is agin ye, the very last thing on earth you need is parents who need caring for.
While I can see why people do leave it late to have children (financial security, etc) I'm half-inclined to think that's a selfish attitude.
Peter
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Post #220,069
8/19/05 12:09:08 AM
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People are living too long.
I think our bodies evolved very well for a species that lived to ~ 40 years of age.
1) Born.
2) If you survive the childhood diseases, etc., you've got it made!
3) Hormones kick in. WooHoo! Fun times!
4) You have your children at 18-22 years old.
5) Raise kids, impress rivals with strength and cunning.
6) Kids start to grow up, help with chores, help protect the homestead.
7) Kid notices unattached beauty down the road. They get hitched.
8) Kids turn 18, just in time for them to take over running the homestead.
9) You enjoy your golden year or two, wander off into the woods, and get eaten by a bear.
10) The end.
If doesn't make sense for kids to have hormones running at 11 for a few years, have to wait a few more years to be able to start their adult life and to be able to support their offspring, then live another 50-70 years. We should have shorter life expectancies or the mating instinct should come later. But as it is, [link|http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/cgi/content/full/108/2/347|girls are maturing earlier] than they were years ago. Things are heading the wrong way on both ends.
We're going to have to start fighting (or changing) our biology on a major scale, or society is going to have to change in major ways, because otherwise there are going to be too many children raising children.
The missus and I have always felt that we didn't want children. There is the little issue about what we'll do in our "golden years".... I've joked with her that we can adopt some 17 year old kids when we're ready to retire.
"Hey missy and sonny, take care of us and you'll get a nice reward!"
:-/
Cheers,
Scott.
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Post #220,079
8/19/05 7:57:34 AM
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lrpd 1-10 please
"the reason people don't buy conspiracy theories is that they think conspiracy means everyone is on the same program. Thats not how it works. Everybody has a different program. They just all want the same guy dead. Socrates was a gadfly, but I bet he took time out to screw somebodies wife" Gus Vitelli
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free american and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 49 years. meep
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Post #220,087
8/19/05 9:38:05 AM
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ObCRC-ism:
How do you get to be 42yo at birth?!? I guess being born in 1961 does things to you....
;-\ufffd
jb4
shrub\ufffdbish (Am., from shrub + rubbish, after the derisive name for America's 43 president; 2003) n. 1. a form of nonsensical political doubletalk wherein the speaker attempts to defend the indefensible by lying, obfuscation, or otherwise misstating the facts; GIBBERISH. 2. any of a collection of utterances from America's putative 43rd president. cf. BULLSHIT
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Post #220,094
8/19/05 10:02:03 AM
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Erg.
In 1961, my wife was born. Her mother was 42 at the time. My wife's mother was 42 when she - my wife - was born in 1961. My MIL was 42 when my wife was born in 1961. Or, more succinctly[link|http://bau2.uibk.ac.at/sg/python/Scripts/MeaningOfLife/MontyPythonstheMeaningofLife|:] Now before I begin the lesson will those of you who are playing in the match this afternoon move your clothes down on to the lower peg immediately after lunch before you write your letter home, if you're not getting your hair cut, unless you've got a younger brother who is going out this weekend as the guest of another boy, in which case collect his note before lunch, put it in your letter after you've had your hair cut, and make sure he moves your clothes down onto the lower peg for you. HTH. Cheers, Scott.
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Post #220,104
8/19/05 11:26:00 AM
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On the coasts, rents & mortgages are no longer connected
so that's one reason why many think we're in a housing bubble.
Also, look at the percents for various types of mortages; in prime bubble areas, the riskier loans are common, e.g. this year SFBA I/O loans are over 50% of new mortages.
Tony
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Post #220,124
8/19/05 1:14:22 PM
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They are very much connected
Money is being concentrated into fewer and fewer pockets and those pockets need to do something with it. The wealthy are competing with each other to buy homes, driving the price of homes way up.
They must do something with those homes and about all you can do with them is rent them out. This has resulted in a glut of homes for rent with rusulting downward pressure on rent.
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Post #220,127
8/19/05 1:37:11 PM
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Partially right
The truly wealthy have reduced real instate investments.
However, there is a lot of speculation in real estate, people buying homes based on assuming that the price will go up. That's the only way an I/O loan makes sense. And it's not the wealthy that are taking out all those I/O loans here; my guess is that it's a mix of speculators and people feeling "If I don't buy now I'll never be able to buy, and I'll be able to refinance in five years".
Only time will tell what happens, but it seems a lot like the dot-bomb boom to me.
Tony
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