Qualified opinions

Post #135,529 by orion 1/13/04 7:08:54 PM Reply	Qualified opinions Yes but what if my opinions on VB are biased, how would you know? What if I got some of them wrong, and you do not know enough about it to tell? What if even I do not know that I am wrong? Consider this, I take my car to an automechanic. In my opinion it needs an oil change (over 3000 miles) and a new air filter. In his/her opinion it also needs a new carborator and distributor cap. Now I never had a problem with those parts of the car before, and while I am no automotive expert, something sounds fishy here. A Qualified Expert told me I need a new carborator and distributor cap, which will cost me a lot more money. So what do I do? Believe the qaulified expert or get a second opinion? Being the skeptic that I am, I go to a second garage and a second mechanic and he/she examines the car and says the carborator and distributor cap are fine. So what do I do when Qualified Experts disagree? I go with the one I agree with and think has the best and truest answer. Same deal with ID and Evolution Scientists. :) *"Lady I only speak two languages, English and Bad English!" - Corbin Dallas "The Fifth Element"*
Post #135,583 by ben_tilly 1/14/04 1:25:20 AM Reply	Shopping for experts Sometimes experts are wrong. Sometimes experts lie. Sometimes the person who you think is an expert, isn't. etc. There are ways to - sometimes - have an idea what is really true. Sometimes you can tell by reputation. Sometimes you know something about what the expert is saying. Sometimes you can compare experts. Sometimes you have to guess. But mostly (admittedly not always) you can find your way with some common sense. Complicating affairs is the common practice of "shopping for the right expert". You go to one expert, and don't get an answer that you like. You go to another expert, and get another answer that you don't like. Eventually you find an expert that gives the answer that you wanted. Can you trust that answer though? This is how Enron selected auditors. This is how drug addicts find doctors who will prescribe whatever they want. This is how PHBs find consultants who will prescribe whatever direction the PHB wants. So how did you do your selection process? You know full well what any standard scientist would say. You know full well what the people here who have learned the most about science have to say. However you found people who sound really authoritative who happen to say something that you want to believe. Obviously they don't generally have the scientific credentials that you might like, but they sound like they have lots of details, and they have some fancy websites. They don't really agree with the scientists, but they claim to be experts and sound convincing about why scientists should agree with them. Voila! You have your expert! And when other people (many of whom obviously have put more energy into this than you have) doubt the quality of your expert, you get to retreat into saying, "Well how can I tell? These experts disagree, and if experts disagree, how can I know who to believe?" Oh, better yet. You call them both Qualified Experts. What are their qualifications? How did you judge that? So yes. You have found people that you can call experts. They give answers that disagree with some standard experts. You obviously don't know enough to choose based on your knowledge, and have decided that you aren't interested in learning for yourself. Nor do you wish to listen to advice from people you know who have put out the energy. Wonderful. You are studying business administration? Let me guess, you are hoping to go into management, and possibly become a PHB? Well you seem to already have the mindset down... Regards, Ben "good ideas and bad code build communities, the other three combinations do not" - [link\|http://archives.real-time.com/pipermail/cocoon-devel/2000-October/003023.html\|Stefano Mazzocchi]
Post #135,626 by Ashton 1/14/04 8:13:37 AM Reply	Heh.. I wasn't even gonna touch That one.. I mean - Where would one start? (let alone finish) Brave! (or something) A.
Post #135,663 by orion 1/14/04 10:52:17 AM Reply	Searching for experts So yes. You have found people that you can call experts. They give answers that disagree with some standard experts. You obviously don't know enough to choose based on your knowledge, and have decided that you aren't interested in learning for yourself. Nor do you wish to listen to advice from people you know who have put out the energy. Wonderful. You are studying business administration? Let me guess, you are hoping to go into management, and possibly become a PHB? Well you seem to already have the mindset down... Wrong, I am interested in learning for myself, I just do not have the time or the money to do so. My time is being used to learn something that can benefit my career. Also the people who put out the energy to give advice, how can I tell if they are wrong or not? Using your previous argument about experts, of course. Complicating affairs is the common practice of "shopping for the right expert". You go to one expert, and don't get an answer that you like. You go to another expert, and get another answer that you don't like. Eventually you find an expert that gives the answer that you wanted. Can you trust that answer though? This is how Enron selected auditors. This is how drug addicts find doctors who will prescribe whatever they want. This is how PHBs find consultants who will prescribe whatever direction the PHB wants. About Enron, we studied it in class. President says to VP, there is $25M in it for you if you balance our books in the black. Reward without the risk almost always leads to fraud. VP tells his people what to do to balance the books, takes the $25M and retires to a small island somewhere. President and other executives find out about it, but cover it up and hopes that nobody else finds out about it. That was their mistake, not correcting the problem before it got out of hand. Through common sense and guessing, I was able to suspect that the car did not need a new carborator and distributor cap. That Mechanic #1 may be trying to sell me something I did not need in order to earn more money from me. If I paid the money and took the old parts to 10 different mechanics who all tell me that the parts are still good, then there is a very good chance that Mechanic #1 ripped me off. What are the odds that Mechanic #2 is ripping me off? I am not being told I need to buy something extra, and the opinion seems to be to be of value. What would you do in such a situation? Would you side with Mechanic #1 or Mechanic #2, and why? How did you reach that conclusion? Remember, you are not an automotive expert and have to base your decision on what these two experts say. Often a Manager has to make decisions based on opinions of others. In Classical Management this is true. Too bad I am not learning Classical Management, I am learning Organizational Management. In OM, we empower the employees to make decisions that affect their workplace. So an employee that works in a team of experts will make the decision based on their own certified opinions, the more diverse the team, the better the choices will be to choose from. If I had to choose between ID and Evolution, I would have a team made up of ID Scientists and Evolution Scientists and have them reach a decsion for me using empowerment. This new style of management will hopefully eliminate the PHB with servant leadership and stewardship. *"Lady I only speak two languages, English and Bad English!" - Corbin Dallas "The Fifth Element"*
Post #135,677 by ben_tilly 1/14/04 11:25:42 AM Reply	Any possibility of useful conversation has ended Actually it did a while ago, but a pathetic curiousity about how far you would take this lead me to drag it out to the end. I now sympathize with Ross after his attempts at talking with you. You don't know anything. You don't care to know anything. And you aren't bothered by this. I won't waste any more typing on the subject. Good day, Ben "good ideas and bad code build communities, the other three combinations do not" - [link\|http://archives.real-time.com/pipermail/cocoon-devel/2000-October/003023.html\|Stefano Mazzocchi]
Post #135,705 by orion 1/14/04 1:39:53 PM Reply	Obviously you are mistaken Actually it did a while ago, but a pathetic curiousity about how far you would take this lead me to drag it out to the end. So you had motives to egg me on and see how far I would go? I now sympathize with Ross after his attempts at talking with you. You don't know anything. You don't care to know anything. And you aren't bothered by this. I disagree I do know something, not as much as other people might, but I am not without at least some information. I at least have my observations. As far as caring to know anything, I care a lot, but as I explained my energies are focuced on learning a different subject than the one we are currently discussing. If I had infinite time, I would have the time to learn the Sciences behind the theory. Reality and fact is that my time is finite, and I have to manage my time carefully. This is not the same as saying I do not care to learn anything, the fact is that my priorities are currently elsewhere. Now some time in the future after I finish earning my current degree, I may learn something else. I did express a willingness to learn, but I preferred to learn from a college rather than via email or whatever method was proposed. I believe that I did state that if I had won the lottery, my finacial situation would be resolved and that I could afford and have the time to learn Physics from Stephen Hawking, etc. I won't waste any more typing on the subject. Can I hold you to that? Many people have promised me that, but later broke their promise or word. *"Lady I only speak two languages, English and Bad English!" - Corbin Dallas "The Fifth Element"*
Post #135,753 by orion 1/14/04 4:55:15 PM Reply	Let me put it another way why should I bother to learn from people who either ignore my questions, avoid them, or react to me in such a way that upsets me? Will I be able to learn something from this person without going through a hard time and getting stressed out in the process? My answer to that question was a "No" based on replies to my posts on this thread. It is very likely I will ask a question that will cause problems between me and that other person. The question won't be answered, I will not be able to learn, and we will both be wasting our time. *"Lady I only speak two languages, English and Bad English!" - Corbin Dallas "The Fifth Element"*
Post #135,772 by JayMehaffey 1/14/04 6:03:45 PM Reply	Re: Let me put it another way Let me put it another way why should I bother to learn from people who either ignore my questions, avoid them, or react to me in such a way that upsets me? Will I be able to learn something from this person without going through a hard time and getting stressed out in the process? A certain amount of stress is unavoidable, anything that challenges a persons worldview creates mental stress. The technical term is "cognitive dissonance", I found a decent short description here [link\|http://www.dmu.ac.uk/~jamesa/learning/dissonance.htm\|Learning] Jay
Post #135,784 by Another Scott 1/14/04 7:52:21 PM 1/14/04 8:22:08 PM Reply	Please review the thread from the beginning. why should I bother to learn from people who either ignore my questions, avoid them, or react to me in such a way that upsets me? Let's break it down: why should I bother to learn from people Because it's easier to learn from people than to try to figure out everything by yourself. who either ignore my questions, avoid them or react to me in such a way that upsets me? You can't control how others react. You can only control your own reactions to others. I'd suggest reviewing the thread and trying to understand that several people here were trying to help you. If you do so, you'll see that in [link\|http://z.iwethey.org/forums/render/content/show?contentid=133420\|#13420] you made statements about "theories" of Creationism. I and others gave you information on what theories are, what science is, etc. In [link\|http://z.iwethey.org/forums/render/content/show?contentid=133581\|#133581] you ask some [link\|http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=rhetorical%20question\|rhetorical questions]. You constructed [link\|http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=straw%20man\|straw men] about gold in China (hint - no one ever said there was no gold in China and it's not a [link\|http://z.iwethey.org/forums/render/content/show?contentid=134806\|"theory"]. What a theory is was discussed in [link\|http://z.iwethey.org/forums/render/content/show?contentid=133458\|#133458]). And so on until in [link\|http://z.iwethey.org/forums/render/content/show?contentid=135663\|#135663] you say: Wrong, I am interested in learning for myself, I just do not have the time or the money to do so. My time is being used to learn something that can benefit my career. Also the people who put out the energy to give advice, how can I tell if they are wrong or not? Using your previous argument about experts, of course. In this little snippet once can find evidence that you're not interested in learning things here, you're just interested in [link\|http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=sophistry\|sophistry]. People usually find sophistry annoying after a while, and that's likely why Ben eventually got upset with your posts. You should be happy that Ben spent the time to write to you and should have tried to learn from the information he provided. If you can spend the time posting replies here, you can spend the time to read and try to understand what you're responding to. It doesn't take that much more "time or money" to do so. EOT. [edit - clarified the last sentence in the next to last paragraph.] Regards, Scott. Edited by Another Scott Jan. 14, 2004, 08:22:08 PM EST Expand All History
Post #135,832 by rcareaga 1/14/04 11:45:10 PM Reply	Die, Norman! Die! (new thread) Created as new thread #135831 titled [link\|/forums/render/content/show?contentid=135831\|Die, Norman! Die!]

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