Second Stream
The revolution in computing with "Services" is in the second stream.
Companies want computers that can qualify loans. Decide what kind of a risk you are, and what the macroeconomic conditions are. Decide who is a threat, and who is OK. This kind of "profiling" will just proliferate.
The next 5 years are about getting rid of managers who used to make these decisions, and getting computers to do them. And order stuff, and schedule people and equipment, and machine time, and hospital beds.
The banking and mortgage industries are way ahead. Other industries are catching up quickly.
In 25 years, the economy bus will have already crashed, you won't be able to get off. In 25 years, computers will largely decide "if you qualify", "if you are someone".
I want to get off, too. But, I'd like to get off now. Or at least in 10 years. But, that's my problem. I just refinanced a 30 year mortgage, with the hope that I can somehow get it finished in 15 or even 10. I won't retire until 2032, but I'm being told that my best earning years are behind me at age 39.
You need to get your money and put it away in the next 10 years. Pay off debt, don't buy so much more stuff.
Hold off on buying electronics as long as possible as the prices for that will fall, as Moore's Law continues to work. But, beyond technology products, the quality will just get worse, as the work is exported. Furniture, refrigerators, washer/dryer, carpet, homes, etc. Buy the best quality of those that you can afford.
A large portion of the baby boomers retire in 10 to 15 years. Consumption HAS to fall in the U.S., as these people need to save for whatever retirement they'll have. Social security (and possibly the whole U.S. gov't) will be broke in 15-20 years. Exports have to RISE to save our economy. We have to produce and convince other countries to buy.
I don't know how that really happens. The dollar may have to fall very dramatically. We have to convince others to buy U.S. goods vis a vis foreign goods.
My father proposed that we enact laws "requiring" a balance of trade. In other words, if China imports 10 billion in goods to us, then we must export 10 billion in goods to them. If Japan wants to sell 100 billion here, they must buy 100 billion from us. The idea is to not let the balance of trade go so far askew that we net export billions out of our economy, like we do now.
I don't know what the answer is. I just know it has to change.
Glen
Edited by
gdaustin
Sept. 20, 2003, 11:13:05 AM EDT
