Post #88,523
3/15/03 10:28:18 AM
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WHO virus warning update, it has spread to canada
[link|http://www.accessatlanta.com/ajc/news/0303/15flu.html|http://www.accessatl...s/0303/15flu.html] In Canada, Toronto's municipal health agency announced on Friday that a woman there, Kwan Sui-chu, had died on March 5 soon after returning from Hong Kong. Five other family members who had not been to Hong Kong recently have since become ill; four are still in the hospital while the fifth, Kwan's son, Chi Kwai Tse, died on March 13, said Mary Margaret Crapper, a spokeswoman for Toronto international air travel, a wonderful vector. thanx, bill will work for cash and other incentives [link|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html|skill set]
questions, help? [link|mailto:pappas@catholic.org|email pappas at catholic.org]</br>
To a lot of people in California hunting anything but the wild tofualope was equivelent to sacarificing babies to satan. S.M. Sterling
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Post #88,533
3/15/03 11:16:33 AM
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Yes. this is big news up here today.
So far, nobody has any real idea what this is. If it's as infectious as they say, it could become very dangerous.
On a side note, has anyone here read "The Last Canadian"?
Regards,
Jack
--\n-------------------------------------------------------------------\n* Jack Troughton jake at consultron.ca *\n* [link|http://consultron.ca|http://consultron.ca] [link|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca] *\n* Kingston Ontario Canada [link|news://news.consultron.ca|news://news.consultron.ca] *\n-------------------------------------------------------------------
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Post #88,535
3/15/03 11:29:14 AM
3/15/03 11:55:50 AM
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Scary
The one point that people are missing is that the WHO is not in the habit of issuing international alerts lightly. This is their first in a decade. For all of the publicity over Ebola, they don't issue this kind of alert for Ebola outbreaks.
We have an unknown highly contagious airborne disease without known cause (suspected viral - anti-biotics don't work and if it is new then treatments will take years to develop) which is frequently lethal and has spread to multiple countries. It has no problem infecting people whose immune systems are not compromised. It started in an area where diseases are known to cross over from animals to people. Hence the periodic worry about "bird flus" there. The last time a strain of flu made that cross-over was around WW I and the resulting plague killed more people than WW I. You see, a disease newly crossed over to people is poorly adapted to its host. A more informative description of a poorly adapted disease is highly lethal. Well-adapted ones walk the line between exploitation and killing. Poorly adapted ones either don't find that balance - if they manage to exploit at all they wind up killing far too often.
This outbreak may wind up contained fast. It may wind up infecting much of the world with most left knowing someone who died from it. The WHO alert is because they fear that there isn't much possibility of anything in between. And the worst case scenario, well historical plagues have been known to kill 25-90% of the population. (The Black Plague killed about a quarter. Estimates of deaths among the natives from flus brought by the Spaniards are in the 90% range.)
If this turns up reported in another 10-20 major cities around the world without any successful treatment being identified, it might be a good time to consider a long hike nowhere near major population centers. If it manages to achieve uncontrolled spread in one or two of those cities, get scared.
Lemme go see what the WHO have to say about this.
Their first alert:
[link|http://www.who.int/mediacentre/releases/2003/pr22/en/|http://www.who.int/m...ses/2003/pr22/en/]
They have an update today:
[link|http://www.who.int/mediacentre/releases/2003/pr23/en/|http://www.who.int/m...ses/2003/pr23/en/]
It has been reported in 8 countries so far. It has been identified on a flight from a 9'th country to a 10'th. The last flight in question originated this morning from the city where I live. Which means that it was at least in the airport. They want all airlines to be aware of the symptoms, and to immediately isolate any person spotted with them. No geographic region at present has sufficiently many cases to justify not travelling there.
That doesn't look good...
Ben
"good ideas and bad code build communities, the other three combinations do not"
- [link|http://archives.real-time.com/pipermail/cocoon-devel/2000-October/003023.html|Stefano Mazzocchi]
Edited by ben_tilly
March 15, 2003, 11:55:50 AM EST
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Post #88,537
3/15/03 11:38:57 AM
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CDC (typical conservative) response
[link|http://www.cdc.gov/travel/other/acute_resp_syndrome_eastasia.htm|http://www.cdc.gov/t...rome_eastasia.htm]
Many fears are born of stupidity and ignorance -
Which you should be feeding with rumour and generalisation.
BOfH, 2002 "Episode" 10
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Post #88,543
3/15/03 12:36:19 PM
3/15/03 1:27:41 PM
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How do you assess the risk?
If it is what the WHO fears, by the time you have positive proof, there is no way to contain it.
If you look at is as a disease, we have multiple reports of sick people, no identified disease organism or proof of mode of transmission, and only a handful dead. This is a crisis?
Given the potential consequences I am inclined towards the WHO's frame of mind. Theirs is the public health perspective, not the medical one. And I am minded of the fact that, publicity notwithstanding, public health has saved more lives than modern medicine. (Clean water supplies save more than antibiotics!)
Cheers,
Ben
PS D'oh. I got corrected by my wife. The CDC is a US organization, not a UN one. Both take a public health perspective. My speculation is that since the problem has not been reported in the US, the CDC has to trust that the problem will be contained, so their mandate is to avoid undue public panic and keep a good outcome having been seen as crying wolf. The WHO by contrast needs to motivate resources to achieve containment.
PPS My wife's comment about this is that what is reported so far is scary, and events in the next week are likely to be telling as to whether it dies down and will be succesfully contained or whether it will succeed in achieving a wider distribution.
"good ideas and bad code build communities, the other three combinations do not"
- [link|http://archives.real-time.com/pipermail/cocoon-devel/2000-October/003023.html|Stefano Mazzocchi]
Edited by ben_tilly
March 15, 2003, 01:27:41 PM EST
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Post #88,549
3/15/03 1:47:09 PM
3/15/03 1:47:49 PM
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Next week will tell the tale
We had a mini house council earlier. I live with a bunch of International students, including one from China and two from Korea... though they've all been here for at least two and a half months. OTOH, we've had five people go through the house who were in T.O. in the last week, including one of the tenants. It's extremely unlikely that any of them were exposed, but not impossible.
If we start seeing widespread infection in Toronto next week, it will be time to go from yakking to doing... if it's quiet by the end of next week (say, maybe a dozen or so more infections from contact with the initial family) then it might be OK.
... fixed typo. JT
--\n-------------------------------------------------------------------\n* Jack Troughton jake at consultron.ca *\n* [link|http://consultron.ca|http://consultron.ca] [link|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca] *\n* Kingston Ontario Canada [link|news://news.consultron.ca|news://news.consultron.ca] *\n-------------------------------------------------------------------
Edited by jake123
March 15, 2003, 01:47:49 PM EST
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Post #88,602
3/15/03 9:59:52 PM
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I wouldn't worry about Toronto
If in the next week you continue to hear about isolated cases, but there is no sign in Hong Kong and Singapore of thousands getting sick, and there aren't a long list of cities popping up from which vectors seem to originate, then it almost certainly is contained.
I would personally be concerned if there is a city somewhere which is reporting thousands rather than hundreds. Or if the number of cities with outbreaks of a hundred or so keeps on growing. Either would indicate to me that despite public health efforts, it is continuing to grow towards a critical mass.
So if in a week there are 100 cases in Toronto but no new big centers of outbreak get reported, I would be comfortable. If in a week Toronto is clearly under control but Hong Kong is not, I would be worried.
Also I would like to note that being in a city of millions with an outbreak of hundreds is a small risk. Unless, of course, you are either working in the medical field or the outbreak takes off.
Cheers,
Ben
"good ideas and bad code build communities, the other three combinations do not"
- [link|http://archives.real-time.com/pipermail/cocoon-devel/2000-October/003023.html|Stefano Mazzocchi]
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Post #88,637
3/15/03 11:41:58 PM
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I'm not... yet.
As I said, the next week or so will tell the tale. It's been reported that the family that was sick made two separate visits to emerg before they were taken in; it was only on their third visit that they were admitted and put into isolation. If it's as infectious as it appears, that could mean major numbers of people have been exposed. OTOH, now that the health unit there knows what they're dealing with, they're taking all reasonable steps to find people who may have been exposed and bringing them in.
--\r\n-------------------------------------------------------------------\r\n* Jack Troughton jake at consultron.ca *\r\n* [link|http://consultron.ca|http://consultron.ca] [link|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca] *\r\n* Kingston Ontario Canada [link|news://news.consultron.ca|news://news.consultron.ca] *\r\n-------------------------------------------------------------------
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Post #88,539
3/15/03 11:50:34 AM
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Yes, this is not good, not good at all
Just read today's WHO update. \r\n\r\n We're overdue for a "flu" outbreak... this could be it. \r\n\r\n The really bad news is that apparently the people in Toronto made it to their house before they got sick. Potentially, all the people they were in contact with, from passersby at the airport, transportation (bus, taxi), and, depending on how long they've been back in the country, any oother people they may have contacted since then. \r\n\r\n Even more disturbingly, it's also been reported in British Columbia. \r\n\r\n The [link|http://www.cbc.ca/stories/2003/03/15/pneumonia030315|news story on the CBC website] also mentions that the number of health care workers in Hong Kong who got infected from the US businessman on his arrival from Vietnam has now risen to over 50. It looks like this disease is highly contagious. --\r\n-------------------------------------------------------------------\r\n* Jack Troughton jake at consultron.ca *\r\n* [link|http://consultron.ca|http://consultron.ca] [link|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca] *\r\n* Kingston Ontario Canada [link|news://news.consultron.ca|news://news.consultron.ca] *\r\n-------------------------------------------------------------------
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Post #88,553
3/15/03 2:16:49 PM
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and so it begins
I don't know whether anyone takes the Gaia hypothesis seriously anymore, but to the extent the world and its collective biology can be considered to function as an organism, is it so far-fetched to imagine that humanity's antics might provoke the planetary equivalent of a vigorous immune response?
co-co- (cough, cough)- cordially,
"Die Welt ist alles, was der Fall ist."
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Post #88,600
3/15/03 9:47:43 PM
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Well..I actually *understand* it...
The Gaia hypothesis as originally stated is that many of the things that have remained constant over the millions of years that the Earth has existed have done so because there are homeostasis mechanisms maintaining them. The question then becomes identifying them.
This hypothesis surprised people, but is at heart noncontroversial. What lies behind it is a generic observation about equilibrium - things don't tend to remain the same through other changes by accident. Identifying those mechanisms then becomes important. As does figuring out what the limits of those mechanisms are.
However this hypothesis got picked up by people with a virtually religious view. The view of the entire world system as dynamically maintaining its state causes a lot of people to think that there is some intention behind it. Which is wrong. The homeostasis mechanisms are more on par with your house's thermostat than any kind of intelligence. But be that as it may, the result is a lot of mystical misunderstanding of the planet as a thinking creature, and one which presumably has lots of reasons to want to get rid of us.
Which is fun for speculation, but in the same vein as astrology. It should not be mistaken for being based in reality.
So the answer to your question is, "No." We should anticipate that our actions will cause unanticipated reactions. But thinking of the world as being actively malicious towards us is unjustified.
Cheers,
Ben
"good ideas and bad code build communities, the other three combinations do not"
- [link|http://archives.real-time.com/pipermail/cocoon-devel/2000-October/003023.html|Stefano Mazzocchi]
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Post #88,604
3/15/03 10:13:39 PM
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as useful as Navaho traditions
when a shooting star is seen in the sky, go "pha Pha" and wave it away. Creation myth linked to Yucatan impact crater. As far as the whitecells attacking the bacteria theory goes, we are comprised of shit piss snot and blood in a badly designed container. As a bacteria we are unsuccessful and cannibalistic.
thanx,
bill
will work for cash and other incentives [link|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html|skill set]
questions, help? [link|mailto:pappas@catholic.org|email pappas at catholic.org]</br>
To a lot of people in California hunting anything but the wild tofualope was equivelent to sacarificing babies to satan. S.M. Sterling
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Post #88,605
3/15/03 10:17:53 PM
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We may be speaking at cross-purposes...
thinking of the world as being actively malicious towards us is unjustified.
I don't attribute to the planet anything like the intentional stance when I speak of an immune response. You and I may detest the rhinovirus that afflicts us in this season's cold, but the cellular reactions that are brought to bear to expel and destroy the viral particles have no hard feelings: they're merely doing what proteins do in a given biochemical environment. Our own hard feelings toward the infectious agents count for zip. I certainly attribute nothing more to "Gaia."
My original point was suggested by a riff on--suppose the biosphere does tend toward homeostasis? Suppose that humanity is, in this larger view, nothing more than a component of this virtual macro-organism, and that, just as a few human cancers provoke an effective immune response once they first register in the organism at large, we have--merely by our natural activities (peasant agriculture + international air transport)--given rise to a super-virus that takes the species down several pegs? This doesn't have to happen because the world hates us, any more than we recover from a cold because we want to.
Just speculation...but I didn't want the impression left that I was some kind of animist...
cordially,
"Die Welt ist alles, was der Fall ist."
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Post #88,607
3/15/03 10:20:53 PM
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No, not animist, analist would be more apt :)
will work for cash and other incentives [link|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html|skill set]
questions, help? [link|mailto:pappas@catholic.org|email pappas at catholic.org]</br>
To a lot of people in California hunting anything but the wild tofualope was equivelent to sacarificing babies to satan. S.M. Sterling
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Post #88,611
3/15/03 10:27:37 PM
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Re: No, not animist, analist would be more apt :)
and your point, in the context of this thread, is?
"Die Welt ist alles, was der Fall ist."
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Post #88,612
3/15/03 10:34:29 PM
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your description of what others might think of you
Viega states Just speculation...but I didn't want the impression left that I was some kind of animist... wouldnt want you to think that some how you were thought as an animist. Thought I would clear that up for you. thanx, bill PS I dont know your background but to ME (and possibly Me only) IWETHEY is the longest bar in the workd where people come to meet greet and argue over important and equally unimportant ideas to the benedetriment of all. These are conversations in threaded form not letters or declarations. Those fine things can be found at /, among others. thanx, bill will work for cash and other incentives [link|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html|skill set]
questions, help? [link|mailto:pappas@catholic.org|email pappas at catholic.org]</br>
To a lot of people in California hunting anything but the wild tofualope was equivelent to sacarificing babies to satan. S.M. Sterling
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Post #88,615
3/15/03 10:45:10 PM
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The "Viega" tag..
...which is, I gather, intended as a term of disparagement, is utterly lost on me, since I have no idea what it's intended to convey--rather like calling me "motherfucker" in Cretan Linear B: there are no extant tools with which to translate the abuse.
cordially,
"Die Welt ist alles, was der Fall ist."
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Post #88,624
3/15/03 11:07:39 PM
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no problem I find it amusing and that is the only criteria
No matter it amuses me and thats what counts. It is not ed zachery disparagement but a rather accurate perception of your writing style and a superficial resemblence to the portrayal.
thanx,
bill
will work for cash and other incentives [link|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html|skill set]
questions, help? [link|mailto:pappas@catholic.org|email pappas at catholic.org]</br>
To a lot of people in California hunting anything but the wild tofualope was equivelent to sacarificing babies to satan. S.M. Sterling
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Post #88,631
3/15/03 11:28:31 PM
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why then, if it amuses you
...that's good enough for me--I wouldn't dream of interfering with another man's self-abuse.
cordially,
"Die Welt ist alles, was der Fall ist."
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Post #88,633
3/15/03 11:30:07 PM
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thank you sir for your understanding
will work for cash and other incentives [link|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html|skill set]
questions, help? [link|mailto:pappas@catholic.org|email pappas at catholic.org]</br>
To a lot of people in California hunting anything but the wild tofualope was equivelent to sacarificing babies to satan. S.M. Sterling
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Post #88,660
3/16/03 6:09:35 AM
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Well.. I guess it might amuse me that
you think it important to give permission for someone to clarify a remark - in such an obv. umm oblique fashion, but I always say -
Let him who is least in need of an editor - correct the student papers. Oh.. maybe that's the amusing part (?) ;-)
Ashton Snidely Whiplash
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Post #88,673
3/16/03 10:30:22 AM
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I would have thought by now you of all people
would have got the viega designation. He does look like the good doctor.
thanx,
bill
will work for cash and other incentives [link|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html|skill set]
questions, help? [link|mailto:pappas@catholic.org|email pappas at catholic.org]</br>
To a lot of people in California hunting anything but the wild tofualope was equivelent to sacarificing babies to satan. S.M. Sterling
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Post #88,751
3/16/03 11:07:27 PM
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Who He?
Nope, sorry - never hoid o' the gent..
Bu s'OK - apparently lots haven't heard of Sinclair Lewis either, and I tended to think that most had. Too. ;-)
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Post #88,757
3/17/03 12:07:04 AM
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inna movie i sentya :-) busy lad ashton
will work for cash and other incentives [link|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html|skill set]
questions, help? [link|mailto:pappas@catholic.org|email pappas at catholic.org]</br>
To a lot of people in California hunting anything but the wild tofualope was equivelent to sacarificing babies to satan. S.M. Stirling
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Post #88,761
3/17/03 12:59:08 AM
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Well.. yeah: the Worm in the Apple, or maybe the asp
When a newbie (on Apple) is ""assisted"" by a pre-newbie but willful SO in er 'configuring' stuff.. a One who Foolishly Clicks On, "Set Up Your [AOL, MSN Compuserve??] Internet" - and one apparently gets just the same viral spread of unremovable wormlets throughout, as in #@$&* Beastware! - well, you know.
Time for an RRR. This Mac turned into a wineSap.. kinda like runnin yer Hemi on kerosene (to use the technical definitions).
So I haven't had time Yet to view your (it better be) Masterpiece.
But can you believe that #%^^%@# Dell installed W98 on her laptop originally, in '98 (the one with bad memory - now good memory) with 16-bit FAT + default "no-DMA" on the CD, 2 GB partition size etc. The lazy bastards musta just erased the W-95 install and loaded the W98 'upgrade'; w/o #@$%& OSR-2. 32 KB CLUSTERS !!
Anyway Two Busted machines, one Muslim t'other Catholic, in one week.
(Now she says the Dell works better than it ever has == well yeah, too: it has 144 MB instead of 80 and 32-bit FAT and a clean install + dejunking. Also because I Am A God.)
Cheers,
I, Reboot
The Microsloth frog says reboot reboot reboot
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Post #88,758
3/17/03 12:17:52 AM
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since I feel sorry for ya Viega
Viega is the good Doctor in a flic starring James Coberg and Rod Stieger
[link|http://www.afistfulofreviews.com/abcd/afistfulofdynamite.htm|http://www.afistfulo...fulofdynamite.htm] you have a passing resemblance to him visually and your posting style would be his if he were real in todays world.
thanx,
bill
will work for cash and other incentives [link|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html|skill set]
questions, help? [link|mailto:pappas@catholic.org|email pappas at catholic.org]</br>
To a lot of people in California hunting anything but the wild tofualope was equivelent to sacarificing babies to satan. S.M. Stirling
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Post #88,762
3/17/03 1:15:06 AM
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Re: since I feel sorry for ya Viega
Can't say I caught that one; nor have I a particularly vivid memory of the actor from Garden of the Finzi-Continis, seen 30 years ago. Incidentally, the character's name is likelier to have been "Villega."
cordially,
"Die Welt ist alles, was der Fall ist."
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Post #88,765
3/17/03 1:28:18 AM
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Joys of the unfettered associative-brain:
The great Mexican trumpeter, Rafael M\ufffdndez - was kidnapped as a young boy, by Pancho Villa, who had heard of his virtuosity and wanted him around as bugler and musician. (He let him go, after a time, so he could pursue his art - or, well - no story)
Viega >> Villega (Gringos just Don't Get that two-l-s together == y) >> Villa!
Or maybe Voyager, the paint-erased space probe in an early STrek potboiler.
Venceremos!
Las muchachas Mexicanas son mas sabrosa que las otras..
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Post #88,767
3/17/03 1:42:15 AM
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Re: Joys of the unfettered associative-brain:
More association: My paternal grandfather, Alvaro Careaga, was a paymaster for Villa's army. The particular group he was attached to having been manhandled by a detachment of Black Jack Pershing's troops, he decided that life would be less hectic north of the Rio Grande, whence he relocated--grubstaking himself, according to family lore, with the payroll. Small wonder he was nearly sixty years returning to Mexico (and, oddly enough, dying there on that visit in 1974).
cordially,
"Die Welt ist alles, was der Fall ist."
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Post #88,824
3/17/03 2:02:42 PM
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since I only heard it, it sounds like Viega with a bad Irish
accent so could well have had 2 ll's in the middle. However the character is a good rightious socialist until he finds out he's only human after all. That seems to fit my immpression of you.
thanx,
bill
will work for cash and other incentives [link|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html|skill set]
questions, help? [link|mailto:pappas@catholic.org|email pappas at catholic.org]</br>
To a lot of people in California hunting anything but the wild tofualope was equivelent to sacarificing babies to satan. S.M. Stirling
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Post #88,886
3/17/03 6:02:46 PM
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socialist? hardly
a good righteous socialist...seems to fit my impression of you
This judgment would astonish and offend my old schoolmate Henry Cleveland of the "Young Socialists Alliance" ca. 1971, whose characteristic response to my taunts and jeers was to assure me that come The Revolution (which rough beast as I recall he was expecting to arrive by 1973 at the latest) he would personally see to it that I was put up against a wall. Henry didn't doubt for a minute that he'd be in a position to effect this after The Revolution; even had I shared this belief I'd still have taken heart at the thought that, given the numbers of other folks to whom he'd delivered this threat (the guy was lots of fun at parties), I stood an excellent chance of making middle age before he got round to me.
One needn't be a socialist or a revolutionary--and Henry C. would vigorously deny my right to either badge--to feel a hearty contempt for George Bush's Imperial Amerika.
cordially,
"Die Welt ist alles, was der Fall ist."
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Post #88,827
3/17/03 2:05:49 PM
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Nit
James Coburn
Support our troops. Protest the war and try to bring them home.
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Post #88,835
3/17/03 2:17:14 PM
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Romolo Valli
Here he is in "The Garden of the Finzi Continis"
[image|http://www.sonypictures.com/classics/garden/multimedia/garden6.jpg||||]
That movie was from Sergio Leone of "Good, Bad, Ugly" fame. In Italian, the movie is called "Duck!" (Giu` la testa! Probably renamed to piggyback on Leone's 60s spaghetti operas.
-drl
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Post #88,616
3/15/03 10:46:48 PM
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We may indeed be speaking at cross-purposes
A metaphor can always be stretched, and it is true that any wide-ranging species with effective travel and contacts with many novel environments is a prime target for being recognized as an opportunity by new parasites. If you wish to regard that as an immune system preventing such species from becoming dominant, you may.
However the truth is that there is no evidence that our planet has ever given rise to a technological species before ourselves. Therefore there is no reason to believe that any mechanism blocking us exists.
Incidentally Von Neumann gave a famous argument that indicates that our entire galaxy has never had a successful spacefaring species. His argument was that such a species would eventually build self-reproducing machines that could spread. If those machines reached 1% of the speed of light (not unreasonable, all things considered) then it would spread over the galaxy over a geological eyeblink (10 million years). So the fact that they are not here means that either they never existed, or we have a heck of a coincidence...
Cheers,
Ben
"good ideas and bad code build communities, the other three combinations do not"
- [link|http://archives.real-time.com/pipermail/cocoon-devel/2000-October/003023.html|Stefano Mazzocchi]
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Post #88,618
3/15/03 10:49:54 PM
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huh??
the truth is that there is no evidence that our planet has ever given rise to a technological species before ourselves. Therefore there is no reason to believe that any mechanism blocking us exists
How on earth or elsewhere did you get to there from my post??
bewideredly,
"Die Welt ist alles, was der Fall ist."
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Post #88,625
3/15/03 11:12:59 PM
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Quite simply...
I was answering the question of whether or not there is any reason to believe from the Gaia hypothesis that there are natural mechanisms which are inimical to technological civilization.
The answer is that there is not, because there is no evidence that the Earth has faced any stressor resembling that in the past.
Cheers,
Ben
"good ideas and bad code build communities, the other three combinations do not"
- [link|http://archives.real-time.com/pipermail/cocoon-devel/2000-October/003023.html|Stefano Mazzocchi]
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Post #88,628
3/15/03 11:24:26 PM
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Re: Quite simply...
there is no evidence that the Earth has faced any stressor resembling that in the past
and so the Earth could not perforce develop a response in the present day? See Darwin's Dangerous Idea, Daniel Dennett, 1995.
cordially,
"Die Welt ist alles, was der Fall ist."
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Post #88,632
3/15/03 11:29:16 PM
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pick up yer local copy of the bible
happened to noah's generation as well as a mention in Isaiah for several other reboots. Glad to see you are a fundamentalist.
thanx,
bill
will work for cash and other incentives [link|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html|skill set]
questions, help? [link|mailto:pappas@catholic.org|email pappas at catholic.org]</br>
To a lot of people in California hunting anything but the wild tofualope was equivelent to sacarificing babies to satan. S.M. Sterling
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Post #88,642
3/15/03 11:52:12 PM
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You seem to have missed the point
The point is that the past stability of the Earth is not evidence that the Earth has any correction mechanism for us. There is therefore no reason to believe that there is any correction mechanism against us.
The Earth can develop a response to our presence, but there is no reason to believe that its response will be massively out of line with what other successful species (ourselves in the past included) face routinely.
That said, what has been routine in the past would be viewed with horror by our society. But what we consider horrendously unacceptable casualty levels would not come close to wiping us off of the face of the Earth. It would come as a massive shock to complacent masses who believe that evolution no longer applies to us (if, that is, they believe in evolution at all), but the species is likely to go on.
About the book that you recommend. I have read plenty of books about evolution theory and sat in on biology courses on the same. Why do you specifically recommend that popularization on the topic? Is there something specific about that book which is not covered elsewhere, or did you think that I needed to be introduced to evolution theory?
Cheers,
Ben
"good ideas and bad code build communities, the other three combinations do not"
- [link|http://archives.real-time.com/pipermail/cocoon-devel/2000-October/003023.html|Stefano Mazzocchi]
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Post #88,648
3/16/03 12:14:15 AM
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Re: You seem to have missed the point
You (and I in my responses) are perhaps making too much of a notion I threw out initially in a fanciful and metaphorical spirit. As to past responses of the earth's hypothetical immune system, the argument could be advanced that the impact of humanity upon the larger biosphere has only just registered.
what we consider horrendously unacceptable casualty levels would not come close to wiping us off of the face of the Earth
Probably not, if no worse than the 1918-19 pandemic. Even if substantially worse, would probably leave enough of us (I have no use for "diversity" as a socio-political concept, but it would certainly come in handy here as a genetic fact of life) to keep the species going, but might briefly put paid to the more cancerous side effects of technological civilization.
Why do you specifically recommend that popularization [Dennett] on the topic? --For his discussions of the adaptive responses of organisms within the practical dimensions of "design space." And Dennett, one of the extraordinary thinkers of our age, should not be lumped in with the "popularizers."
But--just so we understand each other--I don't propose that the Gaia hypothesis be extended beyond the basic notion of global homeostasis I gather we both agree upon, although I find some of the more ambitious speculations tempting.
cordially,
"Die Welt ist alles, was der Fall ist."
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Post #88,710
3/16/03 6:03:26 PM
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I think that I have read enough evolution theory for now...
Some other time I will go back and pick up more books on the topic when I am properly motivated.
So much to learn, so little time to do it...
Cheers,
Ben
"good ideas and bad code build communities, the other three combinations do not"
- [link|http://archives.real-time.com/pipermail/cocoon-devel/2000-October/003023.html|Stefano Mazzocchi]
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Post #88,663
3/16/03 7:22:33 AM
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Methinks the hypothesis could not be tested.
There may even be 'proof' that it is of this class of concept, for those who do not believe in, "by inspection".
That is: a unique phenomenon in the yet-known milieu (life) is the situation. One need not anthropomorphize the planet to embellish 'Gaia' - nor may we dismiss the concept via any notion of 'statistical reasoning'.
Corollary: A collection of metaphors chosen by one group, is followed by repeated efforts to kill off members of another group (with slightly different ones) - an observable characteristic of the only example extant of this life phenomenon, at least among the most imaginative of the creatures. (Who are like us - therefore must be important)
Thus, re this tendency of homo-sap to create *personal* Gods in Our Likeness and infuse these with personalities, via our vivid imaginations: what is one justified in concluding from even this similar phenomenon, given the aforementioned Sample-of-One instance? We cannot study the process of Origin of this One sample. But we know how to design HVAC feedback loops and we naturally extrapolate that demonstrable knowledge of a process.
What we can't know from this Sample - is whether or not 'Gaia' (for ex.) is a mere thermostatic device or if it is umm Something Else upon which "some loop is closed" - perhaps something so unfathomable to us in our primitive state of knowledge, as to seem Magical.
IMO Gaia is as potentially useful a concept as is the Carnot cycle (a 'thing' which exists only in human mentation too - like so much else about which we tend to make the map/territory error). It needs less imagination than the construction of Gods and it derives from physics knowledge of process.
It's A-l-i-i-i-v-e !!! makes for good theatre, we note in our entertainments. *What* is to say that this One Known biosphere is not also alive ?? After all, one Can say, "as above so below" - as easily as not say this.
(And we both know well enough that, 'proof' is a word with rather limited application: perfectly applied only within rigorously stated mathematical axioms - damn near meaningless when applied to human behaviour; varying degrees of success in between. No?)
Postulates on the Gaia hypothesis:
1) It is incapable of resolution. Yet. It will depend upon whether or not the species survives long enough to mature.
2) At maturity, we may apperceive that the hypothesis can be resolved - or even superseded.
Ashton, or something
(What is meant by maturity ? [Hah])
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Post #88,665
3/16/03 9:31:54 AM
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In other words, it's a statement of faith.
--\r\n-------------------------------------------------------------------\r\n* Jack Troughton jake at consultron.ca *\r\n* [link|http://consultron.ca|http://consultron.ca] [link|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca] *\r\n* Kingston Ontario Canada [link|news://news.consultron.ca|news://news.consultron.ca] *\r\n-------------------------------------------------------------------
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Post #88,684
3/16/03 11:26:56 AM
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blazing metaphors
Corollary: A collection of metaphors chosen by one group, is followed by repeated efforts to kill off members of another group (with slightly different ones) - an observable characteristic of the only example extant of this life phenomenon, at least among the most imaginative of the creatures. (Who are like us - therefore must be important)
See Dawkins 1976 and Dennett 1991 for discussions of memes and how they propagate and compete.
cordially,
"Die Welt ist alles, was der Fall ist."
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Post #88,759
3/17/03 12:33:37 AM
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Good reminder..
IIRC he had a bit of a blast with the faith dysfunction, though certainly not denying.. the also plentiful endorphins one experiences with guilty pleasures -
Like -- as someone once quoted from that neat dead language -- "Certuum est quia impossibile est". It is certain because it is impossible. Mayhaps an explanation for the marlowe-phantasm's Digital-faith in Peace Through Massive Bombardment cha cha cha
Also Hofstadter on viral sentences and self-replicating structures (not sure if that was in GEB or elsewhere) - surely a Registry-cleaner for overloaded neuron agglomerations..
But then, is there really anything new (The Hundredth Monkey) under our virus-attracting conceptual-Sun -?- "Give me a child until it is six and I'll fuck up the little sucker for life.." to coin a phrase.
Ashton
Is The Rev Foulwell a Holygram or a dEvil Dog (spelled backwards is fun)
Is the catalog of all works in the library to contain 'The Catalog' ?
(Or must we perform asanas to the meta?)
Is we edjaKatin our Yout yet?
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Post #88,712
3/16/03 6:07:08 PM
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What value do you seek from the hypothesis?
If it is amusement and sounding mystical, then proceed.
If it is a useful paradigm which motivates research and enables you to organize your understanding of multiple areas of science, then a more concrete comprehension of the topic is worthwhile.
My desire is for the latter...
Cheers,
Ben
"good ideas and bad code build communities, the other three combinations do not"
- [link|http://archives.real-time.com/pipermail/cocoon-devel/2000-October/003023.html|Stefano Mazzocchi]
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Post #88,763
3/17/03 1:15:47 AM
3/17/03 1:30:54 AM
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You might wish to be careful re the assumption that
these are mutually exclusive (or even separate) goals :-\ufffd
Merely because organized religion has been so abysmally filled with treacle - doesn't mean that the Gaia metaphor is required also to conform to our historical standard of Execrableness. Capital-r Reality [whatever That might Be] is hardly likely to be accessible via merely the likes of Mr. Booles's handy stone knives & bearskins. (In my lexicon, anyway. YMMV)
Render unto C\ufffdsar Physics that which physics can manage: mapping the world of appearances and the Impressive! illusion of 'substance'. Dismiss the possibility of the ineffable at own risk ;-)
Ashtonanda
Subsidiary of, sat chit ananda
Edit: sp
Edited by Ashton
March 17, 2003, 01:30:54 AM EST
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Post #88,640
3/15/03 11:48:00 PM
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Re: We may indeed be speaking at cross-purposes
That's the really scary thing - this von Neumann argument is as far as I can tell, unassailable. It doesn't even depend on something like a propagation speed and so is independent of the limitations of relativity.
-drl
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Post #88,586
3/15/03 7:35:11 PM
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Iraq must've launched one of its bio-weapons.
bcnu,
Mikem
Osama bin Laden's brother could fly in US airspace 9/15/01, but I had to wait for FBI and CIA background checks, 'nuff said?
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Post #88,837
3/17/03 2:41:21 PM
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New case in Toronto
The family doctor of the people that brought it from Hong Kong.
So far, so good.
--\n-------------------------------------------------------------------\n* Jack Troughton jake at consultron.ca *\n* [link|http://consultron.ca|http://consultron.ca] [link|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca] *\n* Kingston Ontario Canada [link|news://news.consultron.ca|news://news.consultron.ca] *\n-------------------------------------------------------------------
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