CDC (typical conservative) response

Post #88,537 by tseliot 3/15/03 11:38:57 AM Reply	CDC (typical conservative) response [link\|http://www.cdc.gov/travel/other/acute_resp_syndrome_eastasia.htm\|http://www.cdc.gov/t...rome_eastasia.htm] Many fears are born of stupidity and ignorance - Which you should be feeding with rumour and generalisation. BOfH, 2002 "Episode" 10
Post #88,543 by ben_tilly 3/15/03 12:36:19 PM 3/15/03 1:27:41 PM Reply	How do you assess the risk? If it is what the WHO fears, by the time you have positive proof, there is no way to contain it. If you look at is as a disease, we have multiple reports of sick people, no identified disease organism or proof of mode of transmission, and only a handful dead. This is a crisis? Given the potential consequences I am inclined towards the WHO's frame of mind. Theirs is the public health perspective, not the medical one. And I am minded of the fact that, publicity notwithstanding, public health has saved more lives than modern medicine. (Clean water supplies save more than antibiotics!) Cheers, Ben PS D'oh. I got corrected by my wife. The CDC is a US organization, not a UN one. Both take a public health perspective. My speculation is that since the problem has not been reported in the US, the CDC has to trust that the problem will be contained, so their mandate is to avoid undue public panic and keep a good outcome having been seen as crying wolf. The WHO by contrast needs to motivate resources to achieve containment. PPS My wife's comment about this is that what is reported so far is scary, and events in the next week are likely to be telling as to whether it dies down and will be succesfully contained or whether it will succeed in achieving a wider distribution. "good ideas and bad code build communities, the other three combinations do not" - [link\|http://archives.real-time.com/pipermail/cocoon-devel/2000-October/003023.html\|Stefano Mazzocchi] Edited by ben_tilly March 15, 2003, 01:27:41 PM EST Expand All History
Post #88,549 by jake123 3/15/03 1:47:09 PM 3/15/03 1:47:49 PM Reply	Next week will tell the tale We had a mini house council earlier. I live with a bunch of International students, including one from China and two from Korea... though they've all been here for at least two and a half months. OTOH, we've had five people go through the house who were in T.O. in the last week, including one of the tenants. It's extremely unlikely that any of them were exposed, but not impossible. If we start seeing widespread infection in Toronto next week, it will be time to go from yakking to doing... if it's quiet by the end of next week (say, maybe a dozen or so more infections from contact with the initial family) then it might be OK. ... fixed typo. JT --\n-------------------------------------------------------------------\n* Jack Troughton jake at consultron.ca \n [link\|http://consultron.ca\|http://consultron.ca] [link\|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca\|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca] \n Kingston Ontario Canada [link\|news://news.consultron.ca\|news://news.consultron.ca] *\n------------------------------------------------------------------- Edited by jake123 March 15, 2003, 01:47:49 PM EST Expand All History
Post #88,602 by ben_tilly 3/15/03 9:59:52 PM Reply	I wouldn't worry about Toronto If in the next week you continue to hear about isolated cases, but there is no sign in Hong Kong and Singapore of thousands getting sick, and there aren't a long list of cities popping up from which vectors seem to originate, then it almost certainly is contained. I would personally be concerned if there is a city somewhere which is reporting thousands rather than hundreds. Or if the number of cities with outbreaks of a hundred or so keeps on growing. Either would indicate to me that despite public health efforts, it is continuing to grow towards a critical mass. So if in a week there are 100 cases in Toronto but no new big centers of outbreak get reported, I would be comfortable. If in a week Toronto is clearly under control but Hong Kong is not, I would be worried. Also I would like to note that being in a city of millions with an outbreak of hundreds is a small risk. Unless, of course, you are either working in the medical field or the outbreak takes off. Cheers, Ben "good ideas and bad code build communities, the other three combinations do not" - [link\|http://archives.real-time.com/pipermail/cocoon-devel/2000-October/003023.html\|Stefano Mazzocchi]
Post #88,637 by jake123 3/15/03 11:41:58 PM Reply	I'm not... yet. As I said, the next week or so will tell the tale. It's been reported that the family that was sick made two separate visits to emerg before they were taken in; it was only on their third visit that they were admitted and put into isolation. If it's as infectious as it appears, that could mean major numbers of people have been exposed. OTOH, now that the health unit there knows what they're dealing with, they're taking all reasonable steps to find people who may have been exposed and bringing them in. --\r\n-------------------------------------------------------------------\r\n* Jack Troughton jake at consultron.ca \r\n [link\|http://consultron.ca\|http://consultron.ca] [link\|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca\|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca] \r\n Kingston Ontario Canada [link\|news://news.consultron.ca\|news://news.consultron.ca] *\r\n-------------------------------------------------------------------

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