
Well, I think you're still looking at the trees too much...
but it's a fair assessment of the forest. There was a fairly nice upswing in the early 80's followed by a normal decline (which Bush senior got blamed for, imo). Clinton caught the end of the downswing and rode it back on the up and the economy as a whole has been about ready to go back to a downswing. (These downswing generally last 2-4 years, imo).
But then again, I don't think Presidents can have any effect on the economy. Blaming Bush for the economy is as silly as praising Reagan for his.
What I find interesting is that certain people are changing their tunes...