Excel error blows up the world.

http://blogs.reuters...ausality-edition/

ThatÂs what youÂre seeing in the charts. Both of them have the same axes: GDP growth on the y-axis, and debt/GDP on the x-axis. Both of them plot the correlations in the dataset, with the dark line being the signal and the dotted lines showing the 95% confidence interval. And just as in the main dataset, the correlations are much clearer at low levels of debt/GDP than they are at higher levels.

But the two charts are different, all the same, especially at levels of debt/GDP above that 90% level. If you look at the left-hand chart, it shows that it really doesnÂt matter how much debt you have: youÂre likely to average about 3% GDP growth a year over the next three years. On the other hand, if you look at the right-hand chart, it shows that the more debt you have, youÂre significantly more likely to have experienced low growth in the past three years.

In other words, the causation here seems about as clear as causal analysis can ever be: low growth causes high debt, rather than high debt causing low growth. Indeed, once you get past 90% of GDP, your debt load doesnÂt seem to have any significant effect on future growth at all!

IOW, R&R got the causality wrong, and ignored the strongest part of their evidence.

Cheers,
Scott.

link, a ways down
http://www.ssa.gov/p...ngpapers/wp31.pdf

An indication of JUST HOW mathematically-removed-from Reality IS: virtually every "formula" within the pseudo-science loosely called, Economics.
[Aside/not to speak ill of the departed/maybe some reason why ... I never could get Beep to answer for me, "Just What. Is. It. that ... 'conservatives' want to conserve??]

This paper is a litmus for the 'fact' we see in all related bloviations:
The Sheer Quantity of words.. words.. employed merely to demonstrate the defects within a previous [Language Murder?]
makes the case for placing Econ firmly in the realm of astrology--but without the necessary assist of Owl entrails [for checksum-error calcs. maybe?]

Ed: PS, on another page.. the LRPD always achieves concision VS verbiage ...
It's like reading nadsat, only without the clarity.
--Thou Sayest, GRR

Post #373,899 by Another Scott 4/16/13 9:34:23 PM 4/16/13 9:50:51 PM Reply	Excel error blows up the world. http://www.motherjon...or-destroys-world From Mike Konczal, summarizing a new study that says Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff made a coding error in a famous paper claiming that economic growth slows down in countries with debt levels above 90 percent of GDP: [...] PK has more - http://krugman.blogs...ing-error-batman/ and http://krugman.blogs...rogoff-continued/ <sigh> :-( [edit:] Ryan McCarthy at Felix's blog has a roundup - http://blogs.reuters...ties-beef-rogoff/ Cheers, Scott. Edited by Another Scott April 16, 2013, 09:50:51 PM EDT Expand All History
Post #373,911 by boxley 4/17/13 10:07:46 AM Reply	interesting you have 90% of your financial income garnished by debt, so by working hard and servicing that debt while paying living expenses and saving what is left you are much better off than a guy who only has 50% debt, paying living expenses and saving what is left. Good to know Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 58 years. meep
Post #373,920 by Another Scott 4/17/13 12:28:05 PM Reply	Meh. The national debt is like a 50 year mortgage at a low interest rate. It's the (low) cost of having a modern society. Nobody is going to "call" the debt and demand that it all be paid at once. That's also why people don't become bankrupt when they take out a 30 year mortgage that is several times their annual salary. HTH. Cheers, Scott.
Post #373,922 by boxley 4/17/13 12:31:05 PM Reply	they do go bankrupt when the debt service is 90% of their salary Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 58 years. meep
Post #373,923 by Another Scott 4/17/13 1:16:39 PM Reply	And where has that happened?
Post #373,924 by boxley 4/17/13 1:28:31 PM Reply	Re: And where has that happened? https://www.google.c...&client=firefox-a Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 58 years. meep
Post #373,926 by Another Scott 4/17/13 3:42:37 PM Reply	US cities control own currencies?
Post #373,928 by folkert 4/17/13 3:53:29 PM Reply	Of course... in "Bocksley-nation" -- greg@gregfolkert.net PGP key 1024D/B524687C 2003-08-05 Fingerprint: E1D3 E3D7 5850 957E FED0 2B3A ED66 6971 B524 687C
Post #373,930 by crazy 4/17/13 3:59:52 PM Reply	boxleystan It's gotta be one of the 'stans.
Post #373,932 by mmoffitt 4/17/13 4:23:33 PM Reply	My favorite stan is musial.
Post #373,943 by malraux 4/17/13 5:57:10 PM Reply	Snrk. Regards, -scott Welcome to Rivendell, Mr. Anderson.
Post #373,944 by boxley 4/17/13 6:05:16 PM Reply	hemenahemanahemana 10 points if you dont need der google Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 58 years. meep
Post #373,934 by boxley 4/17/13 4:33:48 PM Reply	weimar ring a bell? Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 58 years. meep
Post #373,936 by Another Scott 4/17/13 4:56:30 PM Reply	Let me know when you have a $1,000,000 bill.
Post #373,938 by boxley 4/17/13 5:09:34 PM Reply	have to wait till I get home where I have a color printer Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 58 years. meep
Post #373,939 by boxley 4/17/13 5:23:08 PM Reply	they have them in kentucky http://www.youtube.c...tch?v=sDgSYtV9d8Y Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 58 years. meep
Post #373,948 by Another Scott 4/17/13 7:45:33 PM Reply	Heh. :-)
Post #373,950 by crazy 4/17/13 9:28:44 PM Reply	NC
Post #373,951 by Another Scott 4/18/13 12:05:32 AM Reply	Felix: Chart of the day - Reverse Causality Edition http://blogs.reuters...ausality-edition/ ThatÂs what youÂre seeing in the charts. Both of them have the same axes: GDP growth on the y-axis, and debt/GDP on the x-axis. Both of them plot the correlations in the dataset, with the dark line being the signal and the dotted lines showing the 95% confidence interval. And just as in the main dataset, the correlations are much clearer at low levels of debt/GDP than they are at higher levels. But the two charts are different, all the same, especially at levels of debt/GDP above that 90% level. If you look at the left-hand chart, it shows that it really doesnÂt matter how much debt you have: youÂre likely to average about 3% GDP growth a year over the next three years. On the other hand, if you look at the right-hand chart, it shows that the more debt you have, youÂre significantly more likely to have experienced low growth in the past three years. In other words, the causation here seems about as clear as causal analysis can ever be: low growth causes high debt, rather than high debt causing low growth. Indeed, once you get past 90% of GDP, your debt load doesnÂt seem to have any significant effect on future growth at all! IOW, R&R got the causality wrong, and ignored the strongest part of their evidence. Cheers, Scott.
Post #373,952 by crazy 4/18/13 7:17:39 AM Reply	It won't matter Math challenged people will move on to a new piece of paper to pray to and believe in, because they know what is RIGHT, and they KNOW someone will give them their "evidence", sooner or later.
Post #373,955 by folkert 4/18/13 9:16:36 AM 4/18/13 9:19:11 AM Reply	Re: It won't matter Just like I seen nut-bags already collude the Boston Marathon Bomb and the Waco Texas Ammonium Nitrate factory explosion as being related. As in: Oh NOES! The terrierists has gotten us twice in the past few days! WE NEED ATTACK THEM! EFF OFF <INSERT RACIAL OR COUNTRY SLUR>!!1!1!11! YOU ARE DEAD!!!!1!!1! And those Boston Bombing is related to the Waco Texas Explosion, much the same way the way that Alaska's Temperature gradient matches the Amazon River's water flow through sediment carry. (As in not) You know... meh. -- greg@gregfolkert.net PGP key 1024D/B524687C 2003-08-05 Fingerprint: E1D3 E3D7 5850 957E FED0 2B3A ED66 6971 B524 687C Edited by folkert April 18, 2013, 09:19:11 AM EDT Expand All History
Post #373,956 by hnick 4/18/13 9:55:30 AM Reply	Uh huh... A fertilizer factory blows up in a state where half the deep thinkers are schnauzers and they need terrorists? Maybe they were thinking of terrierists?
Post #373,961 by folkert 4/18/13 10:48:09 AM Reply	haha... You said Deep Thinkers in Texas... -- greg@gregfolkert.net PGP key 1024D/B524687C 2003-08-05 Fingerprint: E1D3 E3D7 5850 957E FED0 2B3A ED66 6971 B524 687C
Post #374,002 by Another Scott 4/18/13 9:20:10 PM Reply	Finally: The explanation is found. Clippy did it. http://crookedtimber...ducible-research/ Cheers, Scott.
Post #374,004 by a6l6e6x 4/19/13 12:56:11 AM Reply	And something I can understand! :) Alex
Post #374,018 by drook 4/19/13 10:46:57 AM Reply	Beautiful comment http://crookedtimber...h/#comment-462277 -- Drew
Post #374,125 by Ashton 4/22/13 2:57:45 PM 4/22/13 3:10:51 PM Reply	..which leads to Another: link, a ways down http://www.ssa.gov/p...ngpapers/wp31.pdf An indication of JUST HOW mathematically-removed-from Reality IS: virtually every "formula" within the pseudo-science loosely called, Economics. [Aside/not to speak ill of the departed/maybe some reason why ... I never could get Beep to answer for me, "Just What. Is. It. that ... 'conservatives' want to conserve??] This paper is a litmus for the 'fact' we see in all related bloviations: The Sheer Quantity of words.. words.. employed merely to demonstrate the defects within a previous [Language Murder?] makes the case for placing Econ firmly in the realm of astrology--but without the necessary assist of Owl entrails [for checksum-error calcs. maybe?] Ed: PS, on another page.. the LRPD always achieves concision VS verbiage ... It's like reading nadsat, only without the clarity. --Thou Sayest, GRR Edited by Ashton April 22, 2013, 03:10:51 PM EDT Expand All History
Post #374,061 by Another Scott 4/20/13 6:20:31 AM Reply	Here's Thomas Herndon's paper, and the data files. http://www.peri.umas.../publication/566/ Cheers, Scott.

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