Post #3,122
7/30/01 7:24:33 PM
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That's what we have now.
"Please God, don't let them nuke us!!"
"By God, if you nuke us, we'll blow you to hell!"
Addison
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Post #3,504
8/1/01 5:56:18 PM
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Exactly How Hard Do you think it is...
to hit a target that's broadcasting it's location with a GPS on board?
You'll have to admit its really sad about the intimidation techniques at MIT.
(From Salon.com)
The rigged missile defense test The target destroyed in the "successful" defense shield test contained a global positioning satellite beacon that made it easier to detect. Why has the media mostly ignored the story?
- - - - - - - - - - - - By Joe Conason
July 31, 2001 | The Pentagon and the Bush administration are determined to sell the American people a national missile defense system that will probably increase tensions with allies and adversaries and will surely cost more than $100 billion. Their latest marketing exercise took place on the evening of July 14, when a "kill vehicle" launched from the Kwajalein Atoll in the Pacific smashed into a rocket sent up from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.
Precisely according to plan, the target was instantly vaporized on impact -- and along with it, or so the Pentagon's uniformed salesmen hoped, the perennial concern that missile defense won't work. With the cooperation of major news organizations and conservative pundits, that test provided an enormous propaganda boost to the Bush proposal, which conveniently enough had been brought up to Capitol Hill by Defense Department officials just two days earlier.
There was only one thing that all the happy salesmen forgot to mention about their latest test drive. The rocket fired from Vandenberg was carrying a global positioning satellite beacon that guided the kill vehicle toward it. In other words, it would be fair to say that the $100 million test was rigged.
No wonder, then, that Lt. Gen. Ronald Kadish, the Air Force officer who oversees the NMD program, told the Washington Post on the eve of the test that he was "quietly confident" about the outcome. The general knew about the GPS beacon, while the reporters didn't.
This rather significant aspect of the July 14 mission remained hidden in the fine print until a few days ago, when the Pentagon confirmed the role of the GPS device to a reporter for Defense Week magazine. But of course most Americans still don't know why the test functioned so smoothly, because the Defense Week scoop was either buried or ignored by the mainstream media, which had so obediently celebrated the technological breakthrough two weeks earlier.
And as Kadish later acknowledged, each of the previous three tests -- two of which failed anyway -- had also involved the use of a guidance beacon. (To longtime observers of the missile-defense effort, this latest news recalled the notorious "Star Wars" scandal, when investigators discovered that a target had been secretly heated to ensure that it would be picked up by the interceptor's infrared sensor.)
Reuters was among the few news organizations that bothered to cover the Defense Week story. The wire service quoted a Pentagon official who "conceded that real warheads in an attack would not carry such helpful beacons." Probably not, although we can always hope that the Iranians or the North Koreans or the Chinese will attach to each incoming nuke a loudspeaker that screams "come and get me!"
Unfortunately, weapons experts agree that even the most primitive enemy missiles are more likely to carry a very different kind of accessory, namely, decoys designed to fool the computerized sensors aboard the kill vehicle.
While the missile launched from Vandenberg on July 14 did spit out a single Mylar balloon as a symbolic decoy, that scarcely challenged the kill vehicle's capacity to select the correct target -- particularly because there was no GPS beacon on that shiny balloon. In real warfare, an incoming missile is expected to deploy multiple decoys of varying shapes and sizes to lure the kill vehicle astray. Past tests have indicated that these simple fakes work far more reliably than the complex technology designed to detect them.
Eventually, the truth about the inherent problems of national missile defense may emerge in congressional hearings. But meanwhile, the Pentagon and the Bush White House mean to stifle any dissent about the capabilities of their favorite toy. They have repeatedly sought to reclassify documents that show that the system doesn't function as advertised. And within the past few weeks, they have blatantly attempted to intimidate Theodore Postol, a professor at Massachusetts Institute of Technology who is the country's leading critic of missile defense.
In early July, according to the Chronicle of Higher Education, Defense Department officials asked MIT to confiscate the reclassified report from Postol and to "investigate [his] actions." At first MIT president Charles Vest, no doubt worried about millions of dollars in defense research grants to his university, moved to comply with that request. Only when Postol protested publicly did MIT back down.
Bogus tests and bullied critics are the hallmarks of a defense establishment that fears facts. With billions in contracts at stake and bellicose ideologues in power, the salesmen for national missile defense must conceal the many defects in their dangerous product. And the press corps, reverting to the bad habits of the Cold War, has done little so far to penetrate the Pentagon's propaganda.
So when the next "successful" missile-defense test is announced with fanfare and fireworks, don't necessarily believe what you hear. You are the buyers targeted by this massive sales effort -- and you should most certainly beware.
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Post #3,513
8/1/01 6:29:31 PM
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Thanks, Mike - wouldn't have found that one. LRPD below:
Can those of you in the back hear me? I tell ya - the LRPD Knows All.
Pentagon sharing Ad agencies with M$ now? Summary of the Salon article:
Oh what a tangled web we weave, when first -
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Post #3,514
8/1/01 6:35:05 PM
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Eerier and eerier. LRPD speaks again:
How much more blacker could this album cover get? None more blacker.
! ! !
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Post #3,522
8/1/01 7:03:57 PM
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Only one question
Was the defensive missile homing in on the GPS, or was the GPS just there for the Runners of the Test to accurately track the incoming missile?
In other words, if the defence missile didn't use the signal, then all your feathers are fluffed up for nothing.
French Zombies are zapping me with lasers!
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Post #3,552
8/1/01 9:57:56 PM
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Also..
...it depends on what the test was about. If they were testing target acquisition *and* the missle could home in on the GPS, then the test was mybe bogus
Even then, maybe not. How many people here write software and test it only in production for the first time? Not many, I hope Sometimes you test with mocked up data simply to test other processes than data collection. Think about how many tests and regression tests you run on your software before fielding it...now think about that development process applied to a problem this difficult?
Think about it, hitting a target that far away moving that fast with a bullet also moving that fast is no easy feat in itself, even if you do no where it is. It's completely understandable to test your ability to hit the target knowing it's GPS coordinates before testing your ability to aquire the target independently.
For that matter, knowing GPS coordinates probably only gets you in the right part of town, are GPS coordinates accurate to within inches for targets moving several hundred miles an hour?
Jay O'Connor
"Going places unmapped to do things unplanned to people unsuspecting"
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Post #3,546
8/1/01 9:05:18 PM
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Pretty hard.
Because I don't know what that beacon was doing.
I don't know if it was "homing" on it (and actually, a GPS beacon would be *less precise, I would think*, than a radar signal.
I don't know if it was there for range safety. Many missile tests are conducted with remote-controlled planes - does that mean that they home on the RF, or what they're supposed to?
Its possible it was "rigged". But even so, that's still damned impressive. :)
If you're simulating things that aren't yet built - I don't know. There's lots of unknowns here. Worth asking about.
But when you write programs, ever dummy up some code, make some placeholder code, becuase you'll put it in later?
Is it then a "scam" that it compiles?
Or are you testing things, not just that code?
Lots of reasons, you're presuming the worst.
Addison
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Post #3,567
8/1/01 11:49:02 PM
8/2/01 12:07:27 AM
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I more interesting in why this was mentioned after the test.
If you're simulating things that aren't yet built - I don't know. There's lots of unknowns here. Worth asking about. But when you write programs, ever dummy up some code, make some placeholder code, becuase you'll put it in later?
Is it then a "scam" that it compiles?
If I write code to debug something, I'm up-front about it. My boss knows that the work is in development and that I've got critical sections stubbed out. If the GPS was just a debugging tool, why wasn't the military up-front about it. It doesn't appear that they were since the GPS wasn't mentioned until after the test was complete. Personally, I feel a lot better about this anti-missile system if the Pentagon had been more forthwrite about the effectiveness of the patriots missiles in Desert Storm. Now they remind me of Clinton promising never to touch a women again.
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Post #3,571
8/2/01 12:13:18 AM
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Re: I more interesting in why this was mentioned after the t
I don't tell my boss the system works flawlessly and then mention the fact that it wasn't running on real data.
Not quite the same thing.
We don't know what the purpose of the GPS signal was. (Personally, I don't think it would be useful for targetting at those speeds).
What we have is the press - who doesn't understand most of these things, saying "AHA!" Well.... they don't get Virus alerts right, why do you think they bother to check the math on their presumptions?
They said the test was a success. That it might well be.
(They also have had complete failure and claimed success up until the project was killed) [link|http://vectorsite.tripod.com/avcruz3.html#m6|Best reference] I could find on short notice - the Skybolt - all tests were reported as successes - despite the fact that apparently all that we tested was the law of gravity).
But if Marketing asks you "how's the project going along" - do you say "fine, coming along great, all the tests are working" or "well, as soon as we get around to adding all the functionality we haven't, we'll know"?
If the GPS was just a debugging tool, why wasn't the military up-front about it. They weren't, the GPS wasn't mentioned until after the test was complete and they claimed it worked flawlessly.
I don't know that at all.
I know that a Salon writer claims that. I've also seen Salon print some utter trash. I don't recongnise the author.
I don't know that they disclosed their whole system. They might well have mentioned it - this isn't necesarily a "secret". (If it was, then why are you complaining that it came out)?
You're presuming that it was a coverup, that its bad, etc. etc. etc.
Well, you (and I) don't have the INFORMATION to know.
claimed it worked flawlessly.
I don't know what they were testing. That's why they call it "secret".
I mean, hells bells, this was going to happen. No matter HOW well it *did* work, SOMEBODY was going to raise hell about the fact they fired it from a known launch site at a known time, etc. etc. etc.
Well, shit. That's why they CALL IT TESTING.
Now, there's a possibility that yes, there was something nefarious about that. But not necesarily... *All such tests* pump out TONS of telemetry data. Are you saying that putting a broadcasting "black box" on the *test* is nefarious?
I feel a lot better about this anti-missile system if the Pentagon hadn't been shown to be lying back with the patriots missiles in Desert Storm.
Well, get over it already.
The Patriot wasn't built for anti-missile. It was built for anti-aircraft, and it works not-so-bad for that. They *might* intercept missiles, and so they were deployed *for political use*.
Technical abilities be dammed.
Now, I think you're one of us who derides the common issue of some dumbass doing something that technically is dumb as hell, and that you shouldn't measure the solution as "bad" because of PHBs in the works.
Well, that's the Patriot system. It was put out where it didnt' belong, where it wasn't specced to be, and AFAIK, it worked *as well as it was designed to*.
(Which wasn't built for city defense)
Yes, they might be lying their ass off about this test.
No, the fact that they had telemetry coming from the target doesn't mean that they definately were.
Addison
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Post #3,597
8/2/01 9:08:50 AM
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Actually it *IS* the same thing.
Not quite the same thing. [...] What we have is the press - who doesn't understand most of these things, saying "AHA!" Well.... they don't get Virus alerts right, why do you think they bother to check the math on their presumptions? They said the test was a success. That it might well be.
My boss doesn't understand what I do. He's exactly like the press in this manner - even to jumping on an 'AHA!' when they think they understand what happened, and it wasn't what they thought. But if Marketing asks you "how's the project going along" - do you say "fine, coming along great, all the tests are working" or "well, as soon as we get around to adding all the functionality we haven't, we'll know"?
If you fake them out, by saying buying a plasma flat screen and then claim it's the LCD panel your company has been working on, you get fired and you don't get any more money from your investors. There was a LCD panel maker that just ran into this.
Like it or not, it's a trust issue. The pentagon claimed, for whatever reason, that the Patriot was working near perfectly. Originally they claimed success rates during Desert Storm were 98%+ percent. No one FORCED them to say this. Outside investigators looked into the matter and began to question these reports. A Congressional Hearing was opened up and the Pentagon was forced to admit that it's success rates were far too high. (They claimed it was closer to 50%...outside investigators claimed it was closer to 1%.) But the point of the matter was that the Pentagon wasn't forthcoming in the success rate of the missile system. They had to be forced to admit that their eariler numbers were too high. Which takes us to this test. The discovery of the GPS system after the test might not affected the test - but then again, it might have. You are correct, we don't know. But why wasn't the existance of the GPS mentioned up front? Furthermore, the attempted squelching of critics (especially expert critics) is not a good sign. BTW: you claimed that hitting the missile in flight, with GPS was HARD. I didn't claim it was or wasn't, but the truth of the matter is that you DO NOT KNOW. You are assuming again.
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Post #3,611
8/2/01 11:07:09 AM
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What I read...
Take it with a grain of salt, it was someone else's post on /.:
The test was intended to test the final portion of the flight. The GPS information (which was talked about during the test, very openly) was fed through the missile's radar systems to simulate the first stage tracking (which isn't done, and wasn't being tested).
The final burn for the impact was a fully operational system, and that's what was being tested.
It certainly sounds like a valid test to me, since they were up front about it.
Regards,
-scott anderson
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Post #3,622
8/2/01 1:20:43 PM
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Scott, it's certainly possible.
This was the first I've heard of the GPS system (same article) but it's certainly possible it was ignored by the media until recently. Furthermore, it's possible, even probable, that GPS wasn't used in any way, shape, or form by the system as a guidence system. Truely, I don't know. Furthermore, the only source of the military bashing what's-his-name at MIT is in the article. That needs more investigation - a single source just isn't enough. But my real point on the matter was that this type of stuff happens everywhere. PHB's want demos that show what they're buying and, when push comes to shove, you've got to demo it. There always seems to be a group of people who'll fake the test rather than show they've got nothing but vapor (like what's-his-name buying the plasma screen). The allegation that the test was faked/rigged shouldn't be dismissed out of hand.
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Post #3,635
8/2/01 3:03:16 PM
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No, it shouldn't.
The allegation that the test was faked/rigged shouldn't be dismissed out of hand.
But neither is it proof of the vast Bush/Cheney/Supreme Court conspiracy to enrich the War Machine. :)
It shouldn't be dismissed, but right now, there's too much political nonsense going on, hiding any real tech issues.
And the story that came out was of the "AHA! They were hiding something" stage... and I think its the "Aha! the reporter doesn't get it". :)
Addison
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Post #3,640
8/2/01 3:48:16 PM
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Certainly.
But neither is it proof of the vast Bush/Cheney/Supreme Court conspiracy to enrich the War Machine. :)
Absolutely. At best (worse?) this would be proof of fraud. (Not that anyone is likely to ever be charged with anything.) It shouldn't be dismissed, but right now, there's too much political nonsense going on, hiding any real tech issues. Welcome to the kitchen. Real issues are ignored in politics why political 'nonsense' goes on. You expected differently? And the story that came out was of the "AHA! They were hiding something" stage... and I think its the "Aha! the reporter doesn't get it". :)
Possibly. But then again, I'm not ready to jump to conclusions about the test as we don't know. I'm certainly not going to judge the reporter and claim "he doesn't get it" until those facts are out. What truly amazes me is that you yourself have jumped onto others for jumping to conclusions without facts. You don't know if the test was rigged or not, but you willing to judge the reporter. You've said that the test was hard, even with GPS, without facts. Yet if anyone else provides an opinion without being based on facts, you've jumped on them rather hard. You shove down their throats that they do not know. Amazing....actually. You seem to be doing the same exact thing. I guess your rules just don't apply to you.
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Post #3,644
8/2/01 4:48:47 PM
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Pot, Kettle, and Black.
What truly amazes me is that you yourself have jumped onto others for jumping to conclusions without facts. You don't know if the test was rigged or not, but you willing to judge the reporter. You've said that the test was hard, even with GPS, without facts.
If you'll note - the jumping exercise here (and I'm sure you won't) was you.
And yes, its hard, GPS or no GPS. I *know* this. We can debate my knowledge level about that, but hitting 2 targets, moving at those speeds, with the variances to be expected, yeah, that's hard.
I'll accept that as a fact. If you want to think its easy, well, go ahead, but your opposition to the ABM program will look silly if you think its easy, and we shouldn't do it. :)
Do the math for yourself if you don't believe me. I won't be insulted. But its hard.
But then again, I'm not ready to jump to conclusions about the test as we don't know.
You already *did*. So did the reporter. And its my supposition that the reporter did exactly that, for much the same reason you did.
I'm certainly not going to judge the reporter and claim "he doesn't get it" until those facts are out
Note that I'm just mentioning that as a possibility. In response to your (implications) that the military isn't honest about its systems.
I guess your rules just don't apply to you.
Right.
Sorry. Forgot, anti-Republican good good good, pro-republican bad.
And me forgot to bash bash bash.
No happen again.
Addison
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Post #3,652
8/2/01 7:12:51 PM
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Nope. Sorry. Not the same at all.
And yes, its hard, GPS or no GPS. I *know* this. We can debate my knowledge level about that, but hitting 2 targets, moving at those speeds, with the variances to be expected, yeah, that's hard.
You know this. Yet, you have provided no facts to back it up. You haven't proved your knowledge. I suppose I'm just supposed to grovel in your expert knowledge. (Of course, God forbid you accept anyone else's expert knowledge without proof.) I'll accept that as a fact. If you want to think its easy, well, go ahead, but your opposition to the ABM program will look silly if you think its easy, and we shouldn't do it. :) Do the math for yourself if you don't believe me. I won't be insulted. But its hard.
Let me get this straight: You're saying that my opposition to the ABM program is silly if hitting a missile with a GPS installed is easy? Do our enemies' missiles come with a GPS? Of course, I've been silly! Thank you addison, I agree. My opposition to the ABM system (where did this come from?) is hereby GONE! Our enemies will of course install GPS systems in their missiles JUST SO WE CAN DESTROY THEM! Correct me if I'm wrong, but that was your point, wasn't it? For the record (again) I haven't claimed that it's easier or harder to nail a target with a GPS installed. (You did.) I STATED quote: [...] you claimed that hitting the missile in flight, with GPS was HARD. I didn't claim it was or wasn't [...] (emphasis added.) Since I haven't claimed anything, I have nothing to prove. And now, according to you, I'm in opposition of the ABM system. Gee, thanx for asking my opinion. You already *did*. So did the reporter. And its my supposition that the reporter did exactly that, for much the same reason you did.
Excuse me, but what conclusion(s) have I jumped to? (Please be specific.) Note that I'm just mentioning that as a possibility. In response to your (implications) that the military isn't honest about its systems.
Amazing: I think it's the "Aha! the reporter doesn't get it" equals "mentioning that as a possibility". Yeah, sure, one of them isn't a judgement call. What was it you said to me, something about "well, sorry, but that's not what you said."? BTW: My implications that the military may not be honest about it's system are at least backed up with facts. I've documented where the military HASN'T been honest about it's systems in the past. (See, I claim this, so I willing to prove it.)
I guess your rules just don't apply to you.
Right. Sorry. Forgot, anti-Republican good good good, pro-republican bad. And me forgot to bash bash bash.
Where did that come from? Who said ANYTHING about Republicans?
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Post #3,653
8/2/01 7:30:19 PM
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Fine.
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