Post #202,452
4/8/05 10:37:23 AM
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Food is going to be expensive . .
. . but few will be able to grow their own as housing becomes more dense. It will get expensive enough to change land usage decisions though and more will be grown close in to the markets.
Organic agriculture will become the norm, since current organics growers are developing economically successful methods that depend far less on oil.
All in all, though, there will be a lot less to spend on toys and travel, so expect jet skis, aircraft, off-road vehicles and a lot of expensive electronics to decline rapidly.
[link|http://www.aaxnet.com|AAx]
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Post #202,453
4/8/05 10:44:23 AM
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Electronics may go up.
All in all, though, there will be a lot less to spend on toys and travel, so expect jet skis, aircraft, off-road vehicles and a lot of expensive electronics to decline rapidly. Expensive toys that you have to travel to use will drop, as will travel as a hobby. But I expect electronics may actually go up. More people will be telecommuting, which means more computers and high bandwith in peoples houses. And what entertainment people can afford will be stuff they can keep and use around their now smaller houses and apartments. One of the reasons the Japanese spend more on electronic gadgets is that gadgets are little things that can be kept in an apartment easily. As oil prices go up, the US will be heading in that direction. Jay
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Post #202,470
4/8/05 1:11:05 PM
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Yes, but $3600 'big screens' entertainment centers . . .
. . will probably suffer in favor of more modest units as the cost of food eats into disposable income and the cost of manufacturing electronics increases.
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Post #202,473
4/8/05 1:16:37 PM
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Actually, I would expect purchases to increase
as mobility is curtailed.
"Whenever you find you are on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect" --Mark Twain
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them." --Albert Einstein
"This is still a dangerous world. It's a world of madmen and uncertainty and potential mental losses." --George W. Bush
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Post #202,481
4/8/05 2:02:08 PM
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I'd expect the opposite
Decreased mobility reduces suburbs leads to increased population density and therefore less space per person. Less space makes bulky items less attractive.
I'll bet those $3600 screens are less popular in NYC than in LA.
Cheers,
Ben
I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
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Post #202,491
4/8/05 2:27:35 PM
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Probably talking about different points on the same curve
It has been shown that when fuel prices rise and/or employment gets tight (recent couple years of depression), people begin to shift disposable income to home entertainment options (video games, dvds, etc) from things like vacations, restaurants, and movie tickets. So I think that will be the first trend, but it will likely be transient because, as you note, eventually they will have to downsize their living space as well and then small goodies will supplant large goodies.
"Whenever you find you are on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect" --Mark Twain
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them." --Albert Einstein
"This is still a dangerous world. It's a world of madmen and uncertainty and potential mental losses." --George W. Bush
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Post #202,494
4/8/05 2:33:22 PM
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I think the big screens will still sell
but they'll be plasma and LCD that hang on the wall.
Darrell Spice, Jr. [link|http://spiceware.org/gallery/ArtisticOverpass|Artistic Overpass]\n[link|http://www.spiceware.org/|SpiceWare] - We don't do Windows, it's too much of a chore
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Post #202,498
4/8/05 2:43:31 PM
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I dunno about that...
..plasma TVs are horrendous energy hogs....
jb4
shrub\ufffdbish (Am., from shrub + rubbish, after the derisive name for America's 43 president; 2003) n. 1. a form of nonsensical political doubletalk wherein the speaker attempts to defend the indefensible by lying, obfuscation, or otherwise misstating the facts; GIBBERISH. 2. any of a collection of utterances from America's putative 43rd president. cf. BULLSHIT
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Post #202,503
4/8/05 3:11:00 PM
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LCDs driven by white LEDs
Darrell Spice, Jr. [link|http://spiceware.org/gallery/ArtisticOverpass|Artistic Overpass]\n[link|http://www.spiceware.org/|SpiceWare] - We don't do Windows, it's too much of a chore
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Post #202,495
4/8/05 2:35:52 PM
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Could argue the other way as well.
$3600 flat screens that you can mount on the wall (or project onto a wall) take less volume in a room than a 30" tube sitting on a stand. So they might become more popular.
Whether expensive, giant TVs become more or less popular as oil prices increase is a bit of an open question. Especially since one would expect them to become cheaper over time even if fuel prices increase (the manufacturing plant costs would be amortized, etc.), and since HDTV is eventually going to be the major broadcast format in the US.
Cheers,
Scott.
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Post #202,756
4/10/05 9:55:32 PM
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Another reason for gadgets.
The Japanese also go into miniaturization, especially in Tokyo. Why? So they can use them on the train.
Wade.
Is it enough to love
Is it enough to breathe
Somebody rip my heart out
And leave me here to bleed
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Is it enough to die
Somebody save my life
I'd rather be Anything but Ordinary
Please
| -- "Anything but Ordinary" by Avril Lavigne. |
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Post #202,765
4/10/05 11:16:43 PM
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Yes, and their manufacturers used to be totally mystified .
. . that they couldn't sell their gadgets in the U.S.. They finally deduced that Americans like gadgets that do just one thing and do it so simply you can throw the manual out with the packing materials. They've made progress, but they're not there yet.
Of course this just reinforces the Japanese stereotype of Americans that prevailed during WWII. When an American newspaper published the news that the Japanese Purple Code had been deciphered (and certain people were severely disciplined for that), the Japanese rejected the news as a deception, because "Americans aren't smart enough to do that" and continued using the code, resulting in some distress.
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