PERIOD.

Nor can most-anyone else. That which you regularly tar as guesses demonstrates ignorance of the means by which EVERY THEORY ever got formulated into words via which most intelligent persons can -at least- catch the drift of the underlying science:

1) That 'done' already/tested/'verified" ... [only-EVER!] ... to the extent that: all of the then-perceived Gotchas [about said 'Theory'] have been addressed.. When one of These prevails: then THAT Theory needs further work/or dismissal.

2) However beautiful the theory and its passing of obvious first tests, it is never the Last Word: that process for attacking its foundations remains as a major tool for the perpetual 'grazing of 'a field' for error-weeds, maybe missed n the euphoria of.. IT WORKS!

This is How science uses all means of ALL competent Players ... in a constant aim to minimize all biases of researchers (and nit-pickers.. and even of.. the utterly-clueless-but-LOUD.) Go back and review how Relativity was "received": by various gradients: from the Utterly-flummoxed/auto-didacts/on through the established, credentialed, authentic other pukka-Scientists.

(Many years later--when techno caught up--re A.E.) the gravitational-displacement of light from a distant star--by Sol: added yet another Proof of the basic-soundness of Relativity. And now the Proofs are too numerous for most people to carry them all around: in their heads. [It is still not to be The Last Word.]

SO YES: a "guess" IS the incubator for the early-on crafting of a tenable hypothesis ... the rest is mind-sweat-equity, usually in the hundreds of thousand (Wo-)Man-hours spent from the first Aha!!
The common-thread of all your nitpicks (most-all, anyway) is your snide self-assurance that You somehow stand atop the pile of researchers-who-stand-atop Giants--and see further and clearer "ahead".

Which is utter B.S.-bloviation and/or mere megalomania (?)

We have the Proofs of Relativity [which, indeed someday shall be supplanted]--as was Newton--by a more cohesive Grand Theory-to-be-Tested: with much better comprehension of the Graviton (say) and other problems 'twixt the Weak-force the Strong-force etc. etc.

(Amateurs too have contributed Lots--especially in Astronomy, where their contributions are obvious even to the barely-informed.) All 'Theories' Grand- or ho-hum- achieve their Proof/or do-Not achieve their Proof--via subsequent testing as Takes Time.

As to a matter which Can/Will/is-already-doing: Alter the basic Earth environment, in ways almost entirely detrimental: not just to our pig-headed, mindlessly energy-wasteful species, but for ALL species, and especially mammals:

To Wait For a very-high-Confidence-level of Proof before Taking This Seriously: IS NOT EVEN A SERIOUS OPTION--to any but the befuddled, the manically-egoistic and the deranged. Had you even the training, years of experience doing authentic Science (not scientism) and other veritable-Chops
--your "take' on the entire Topic and how, currently it is being addressed is no more incisive-thus-Useful than.. a teaPartier ranting that a zygote should get a vote to kill its Host-live-person-on-"Principle".

DON'T YOU YET SEE ANY OF THIS? Manifestly you are not stupid, nor incapable of accurate thought, but your sniping is too damn close to the level of the aforementioned folks who will kill Doctors to Save a Zygote--and after the sucker is birthed, say: Fuck 'im; let the tyke pull self up by own bootstraps. Because Self-Sufficiency/Responsibility and ... the sociopath makers of stupid-ignorant slogans.

You Don't Get No Respect for emulating some of the prime-idiots ever to appear-and-be-quoted ... since hieroglyphics got invented. Not in 2013 when all the meeja are replete with people who should be barred-for-liff from ever using a fucking microphone. Your tack evokes those and nothing so sublime as Don Quixote

..or that (recent, relatively) Russki General who kept his finger off the Retaliate-button when all around him believed that a handful of US missiles had launched. THIS HAPPENED. One Man saved us-all from our paranoia. Next time..???

THERE's Our Hero and not just of, the former-Soviet Union--amongst the naysayer-Class.

Call me when ya gots yer Meteorology chops/validated by more than internal-mental-processes, 'K?
IMO, merely: you are NOT immune from the cumulative effects
of %time spent with My Gramma/and on that plethora of modrin junk sites ... aimed at the disenfranchised of all stripes.
We Are the 'impressions' we willingly seek-out.


I, feeling nibbled-to-death by your incessant schizophrenic ducks. Quack, Quack--yourself!