Here's how it will work (or, more accurately, NOT work):
1) Micros~1 will hear "through the grapevine" of some system successfully virtualizing Vista. (The "grapevine" being some bigmouth blogger who just cant resist shooting of its mouth, or a hit on a bot that trolls eBay looking for someone selling virtualization solutions).
2) Micros~1 will then buy a copy for $pittance of said virtualization software.
3) When they determine that said virtualization software does indeed work, they will then figure out its fingerprint in much the same way that anti-virus makers detect a virus's fingerprint.
4) Micros~1 will then deliver countermeasures through their automatic-update-that-you-cannot-shut-off-without-violating-the-eula-remember-all-your-hardware-are-belong-to-us
"facility". Suddenly, said virtualization fails to work. (and probabaly downloads your MAC address to Microsoft through their phone-home-that-you-cannot-shut-off-without-violating-the-eula-remember-all-your-hardware-are-belong-to-us "facility".) (If they were smart [don't we all wish], they'd delay their de-virtualization patch activation until some time later than the download that actually bombs the virtualizer, so that one couldn't easily associate which download contained the bomb....
jb4
"When the final history is written in Iraq, [link|http://images.ucomics.com/comics/tmate/2006/tmate060926.gif|it'll look just like a comma.]"
— George W. Bush, 24 Sep 06