Re: Kerry with zero margin of error

Post #175,318 by deSitter 9/20/04 9:49:34 PM Reply	Re: Kerry with zero margin of error The polls are a dead heat again, so yes, the debates will decide - and thankfully that moron couldn't debate a 5 year old about The Little Mermaid vs. Buzz Lightyear. If it was a fight, Kerry should come out smoking in the first round. -drl
Post #175,324 by JayMehaffey 9/20/04 10:05:06 PM Reply	Don't count the chicks early If Kerry's group gave too much on the debate format it could favor Bush. If Bush can keep things simple and scripted, he can come across pretty well in the eyes of people ignorant of politcs and those in his party, and those are the ones he is playing to at this point. And those that are undecided at this point are ignorant of politcs, news, and world events in general, and thus liable to be swayed by facile slogans even if wrong. His average dopy guy apperance will help him in that regards. The same hold true for Kerry. To win, Kerry must be aware that he is playing to the Democratic base and the outsiders. How he comes across to Republicans doesn't matter now. Kerry's best shot is the town hall debate, where they are likely to get hit with some questions that don't fit the script. Kerry should be able to handle the unexpected far better then Bush. Bush also had a big advantage in 2000 in that the press played down expectations of his debates so much that he was scored better then Gore for simply not fumbling the debates. This is liable to help him again this year, but one would hope not as much. Jay
Post #175,331 by Another Scott 9/20/04 11:12:27 PM Reply	Expectations or no, Bush beat Gore in the debates. I'm not confident that Kerry will beat Bush in the debates. Remember his open-mike comments about Bush and his clique in the spring? "They're crazy!" I'm not confident at this point that he'll be able to defend his record. Kerry too often seems to be afraid of Bush and Rove's apparatus. Kerry's got a lot of debate experience, but Bush has done well in just about every debate he's been in. Gore couldn't decide who he wanted to be in the 2000 debate (the exasperated grownup, or the attack dog, or the likable successor). If Kerry seems to be 3 different people in the debates, it'll look bad for him. If Kerry can't convince people that he really does stand for something, then he'll be in trouble. On the other hand, if he can convince people that his plans are really workable and that he really does have core beliefs that people can relate to, then Kerry still has a good chance. Kerry can't just say "Bush is wrong and I would do everything differently!" That's pablum. I don't think the popular or electoral vote will be as close this time as last. At the moment I think Bush is going to win 53:46:1 in the popular vote. (I couldn't give you numbers on the Electoral vote yet, but it won't be close.) If Kerry does well in the debates, I think he still has a good chance of winning. I've felt for a long time that the election was Kerry's to lose, and so far he's losing. The debates are key. Bush has the advantage of low expectations. Kerry can't go in there thinking that Bush is an idiot and that it's a cakewalk. If nothing unexpected comes out in them, and if Kerry can't connect with people in clear terms, then Bush will win. That's my guess at the moment anyway. Cheers, Scott. (Who thinks that things would probably be a little better under Kerry, mainly due to the divided government stuff that Ben talked about earlier.)
Post #175,383 by jb4 9/21/04 10:29:00 AM Reply	Debate format favors Bush (as expected) Only one town hall format, with prescreened questions. All three debates do ot allow the candidates to even look at each other, and they cannot directly address each other. According to [link\|http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/09/20/presidential.debates/index.html\|this CNN article] one of the sticking points was that the Duh camp didn't want a town hall forum at all (figures): According to sources familiar with the negotiations, the Bush team initially wanted just two debates, skipping the town hall forum in Missouri. jb4 shrub\ufffdbish (Am., from shrub* + rubbish, after the derisive name for America's 43 president; 2003) n. 1. a form of nonsensical political doubletalk wherein the speaker attempts to defend the indefensible by lying, obfuscation, or otherwise misstating the facts; GIBBERISH. 2. any of a collection of utterances from America's putative 43rd president. cf.* BULLSHIT

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