Post #175,274
9/20/04 5:47:02 PM
10/30/04 5:43:56 PM
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US Presidential Election Predictions
Use this thread to post your predicted outcome.
Here’s mine:
Bush wins by a respectable but not landslide margin.
[Edit: I’m bumping this thread so that y’all can (maybe) reconsider in the light of the debates]
[Edit: Final bump for closing predictions]
Peter
[link|http://www.debian.org|Shill For Hire]
[link|http://www.kuro5hin.org|There is no K5 Cabal]
[link|http://guildenstern.dyndns.org|Blog]
Edited by pwhysall
Oct. 14, 2004, 07:27:20 AM EDT
Edited by pwhysall
Oct. 30, 2004, 05:43:56 PM EDT
US Presidential Election Predictions
Use this thread to post your predicted outcome.
Here's mine:
Bush wins by a respectable but not landslide margin.
[Edit: I'm bumping this thread so that y'all can (maybe) reconsider in the light of the debates]
Peter
[link|http://www.debian.org|Shill For Hire]
[link|http://www.kuro5hin.org|There is no K5 Cabal]
[link|http://guildenstern.dyndns.org|Blog]
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Post #175,276
9/20/04 5:49:24 PM
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Easy prediction: We lose.
Well, if we weren't at war, this president would be rated as the all time worst. As it is, the war is the only thing saving his ass.
Think election will be decided in the last 3 weeks. Impossible to call till then.
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Post #175,279
9/20/04 5:53:56 PM
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Here's mine
Bush wins a squeaker.
Massive voting irregularities, almost always in favor of Bush, are found in the e-voting machines.
No idea what happens next.
Powered by the Hammer of the Gods
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Post #175,297
9/20/04 6:50:54 PM
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Re: US Presidential Election Predictions
In accordance w/ Thane, vote tabulations are highly suspect resulting in a(n apparent) Bush win. Lawsuits abound regarding disenfranchisement, a la 2000.
Wash. Rinse. Repeat.
And what happens then is.. well... nothing... for all their angst on "the left", they've yet to muster the right-wing-hate which would result in a true call to arms.
thanks
mx.
"I'm man enough to tell you that I can't put my finger on
exactly what my philosophy is now, but I'm flexible."
-- Malcolm X
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Post #175,301
9/20/04 7:33:32 PM
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Give that 11 more years
And what happens then is.. well... nothing... for all their angst on "the left", they've yet to muster the right-wing-hate which would result in a true call to arms.
The civil war speculated about in Wealth and Democracy should happen 15 years from the apparent peak of US dominance. Which is about 11 years away.
Given a 5 year margin of error, that's anywhere from 6-16 years off.
No, I'm not joking. However I'd also give that civil war no better than about 2/3 odds of actually happening, even when I feel pessimistic.
Cheers,
Ben
About the use of language: it is impossible to sharpen a pencil with a blunt axe. It is equally vain to try to do it with ten blunt axes instead. -- Edsger W. Dijkstra
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Post #175,305
9/20/04 8:38:09 PM
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There may be a spoiler.
Nukes. However accidentally, deliberately via Terrierist, intentionally by Putin - nobody could imagine the retaliation sequence + next day-day US Fatherland status, methinks.
I have yet to snare Wealth & Democracy, feeling that the more apt it is the likelier more depressing. It's on the list, despite. When I get self to local store. And before any more Terry P's [I tell myself].
Oh.. just finished Interesting Times by TP. He Knows us. And also our Death-guy. Will see if Mr. Phillips' overlay can possibly augment Mr. Pratchett's bullseye on the core-Valuez.
moi
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Post #175,344
9/21/04 12:01:15 AM
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That's a given.
I have yet to snare Wealth & Democracy, feeling that the more apt it is the likelier more depressing. Ben recommended it. Of COURSE it's going to be depressing. :P Powered by the Hammer of the Gods
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Post #175,346
9/21/04 12:38:09 AM
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Well at least it's always Honestly depressing
Some help here..
I'm trying to find that silver lining that might short out enough transistors in the Diebold Concentrators (unless != Power OK sets a Bush-Wins flag, too).
..guess we'll still be relying on some random Iraqis to get those Undecided folk unconfused.
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Post #175,314
9/20/04 9:31:50 PM
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Kerry with zero margin of error
My best guess at this point is that Kerry will win the popular vote by a small but significant margin. The electorial vote however is a tossup, with a margin of victory for whichever wins less then the large scale errors introduced by voting machines and fraud. Things get tied up in court, and no telling what happens after that. We could easly see a repeat of the debacle in Flordia happening in multiple states, with subtle differences in state voting laws throwing the election in various directions.
Oddly enough, the debates could end up deciding this election, as both sides scramble for the last few wavering voters and try to get out the party base.
Jay
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Post #175,318
9/20/04 9:49:34 PM
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Re: Kerry with zero margin of error
The polls are a dead heat again, so yes, the debates will decide - and thankfully that moron couldn't debate a 5 year old about The Little Mermaid vs. Buzz Lightyear. If it was a fight, Kerry should come out smoking in the first round.
-drl
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Post #175,324
9/20/04 10:05:06 PM
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Don't count the chicks early
If Kerry's group gave too much on the debate format it could favor Bush. If Bush can keep things simple and scripted, he can come across pretty well in the eyes of people ignorant of politcs and those in his party, and those are the ones he is playing to at this point. And those that are undecided at this point are ignorant of politcs, news, and world events in general, and thus liable to be swayed by facile slogans even if wrong. His average dopy guy apperance will help him in that regards.
The same hold true for Kerry. To win, Kerry must be aware that he is playing to the Democratic base and the outsiders. How he comes across to Republicans doesn't matter now.
Kerry's best shot is the town hall debate, where they are likely to get hit with some questions that don't fit the script. Kerry should be able to handle the unexpected far better then Bush.
Bush also had a big advantage in 2000 in that the press played down expectations of his debates so much that he was scored better then Gore for simply not fumbling the debates. This is liable to help him again this year, but one would hope not as much.
Jay
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Post #175,331
9/20/04 11:12:27 PM
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Expectations or no, Bush beat Gore in the debates.
I'm not confident that Kerry will beat Bush in the debates. Remember his open-mike comments about Bush and his clique in the spring? "They're crazy!" I'm not confident at this point that he'll be able to defend his record. Kerry too often seems to be afraid of Bush and Rove's apparatus.
Kerry's got a lot of debate experience, but Bush has done well in just about every debate he's been in. Gore couldn't decide who he wanted to be in the 2000 debate (the exasperated grownup, or the attack dog, or the likable successor). If Kerry seems to be 3 different people in the debates, it'll look bad for him. If Kerry can't convince people that he really does stand for something, then he'll be in trouble. On the other hand, if he can convince people that his plans are really workable and that he really does have core beliefs that people can relate to, then Kerry still has a good chance. Kerry can't just say "Bush is wrong and I would do everything differently!" That's pablum.
I don't think the popular or electoral vote will be as close this time as last. At the moment I think Bush is going to win 53:46:1 in the popular vote. (I couldn't give you numbers on the Electoral vote yet, but it won't be close.) If Kerry does well in the debates, I think he still has a good chance of winning. I've felt for a long time that the election was Kerry's to lose, and so far he's losing.
The debates are key. Bush has the advantage of low expectations. Kerry can't go in there thinking that Bush is an idiot and that it's a cakewalk. If nothing unexpected comes out in them, and if Kerry can't connect with people in clear terms, then Bush will win. That's my guess at the moment anyway.
Cheers,
Scott.
(Who thinks that things would probably be a little better under Kerry, mainly due to the divided government stuff that Ben talked about earlier.)
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Post #175,383
9/21/04 10:29:00 AM
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Debate format favors Bush (as expected)
Only one town hall format, with prescreened questions. All three debates do ot allow the candidates to even look at each other, and they cannot directly address each other. According to [link|http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/09/20/presidential.debates/index.html|this CNN article] one of the sticking points was that the Duh camp didn't want a town hall forum at all (figures): According to sources familiar with the negotiations, the Bush team initially wanted just two debates, skipping the town hall forum in Missouri. jb4
shrub\ufffdbish (Am., from shrub + rubbish, after the derisive name for America's 43 president; 2003) n. 1. a form of nonsensical political doubletalk wherein the speaker attempts to defend the indefensible by lying, obfuscation, or otherwise misstating the facts; GIBBERISH. 2. any of a collection of utterances from America's putative 43rd president. cf. BULLSHIT
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Post #175,374
9/21/04 9:30:05 AM
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My Prediction: Peter's right and I'll want to live elsewhere
bcnu,
Mikem
"The struggle for the emancipation of the working class is not between races or religions. It is one of class against class. Every trace of anti-Semitism, or any form of race hatred cannot assist the oppressed, it can on the contrary only aid the exploiters. Workers of all nationality, religion or creed must stand together against the common enemy: capitalism."
-Ted Grant
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Post #175,453
9/21/04 3:16:15 PM
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Kerry has a history
of pulling things together in the 11th hour.
He did it in the Democratic Primaries where he was not the front runner most of the time (seriously, I wrote the guy off early as having no compelling message vs Dean and some of the others).
His senate races ran similarly. He's apparently like Elway's Broncos (who were most likely to win if they were losing at the end of the first half)*.
Its too close to call and will most definitely be decided in the debates. I'm putting my money on Kerry.
* Donald Trump pointed this out in an interview last week when he insisted that you cannot count Kerry out.
That was lovely cheese.
--Wallace, The Wrong Trousers
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Post #175,497
9/21/04 5:16:53 PM
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Kerry is history...
If he has to "win" at the debates. I have a sad observation to pass along to you, Todd. Only partisans watch the debates. Noone is swayed. Most independents feel that there needs to be compelling reason to change in an incumbent election. The Democrats have provided no compelling reasons, just the same tired diatribes. This is over except for the crying. It reminds me of Dole in '96. Few would argue that he wasn't a great statesman, but the majority of the people had little will to "change" presidents in that election either, even though many felt that Pres Clinton was incompetent.
Contrary to the popular diatribes found in these fora, this election is Bush's to win or lose. Barring a major scandal/guffaw, this incumbent will be re-elected by a decent margin.
Just a few thoughts,
Danno
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Post #175,509
9/21/04 5:42:35 PM
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Reporting on debates
While the actual viewing of the debates is less then could be hoped, the impact can be significant. The press reports on how they think it worked out, and the public impression created by that does have a significant impact on the wavering voters.
This is why the minimize the expectations game is so important. If you can convince the press to say your guy did better then expected, despite doing badly, it can come off pretty well because the undecided are often basing their impressions on second and third hand reports.
As for comparing it to Dole, it should be remembered that Dole was tilting at windmills from the start. Despite Republican fury and thunder, Clinton was very popular with the public his entire time in office.
Jay
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Post #175,510
9/21/04 5:45:57 PM
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Not to much that the economy was doing pretty good...
...under Clinton. Under the current administration, the economy sucks, oil prices are at all time highs, the deficit is going sky high (both government and trade), medical insurance rates have double digit rates, terrorism is on the rise.....
Like I said, if we weren't at war, Bush would be toast.
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Post #175,623
9/22/04 9:47:10 AM
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We have a winner.
bcnu,
Mikem
"The struggle for the emancipation of the working class is not between races or religions. It is one of class against class. Every trace of anti-Semitism, or any form of race hatred cannot assist the oppressed, it can on the contrary only aid the exploiters. Workers of all nationality, religion or creed must stand together against the common enemy: capitalism."
-Ted Grant
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Post #175,512
9/21/04 6:10:38 PM
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"Barring a major scandal/guffaw"? HAHAHAHA!!!!
Quousque tandem abutere, Dubya, patientia nostra?
We've already had four years of increasingly outrageous scandals and increasingly stultifying guffaws; I think the only thing that could possibly cause the Bush machine to waver would be if they came out in favor of breaking up the media concentrations -- and they'd sooner admit to eating poor people for lunch.
A margin big enough to avoid triggering recounts, but not so big as to clash too heavily with the most recent twisted polls. Exit polls will prove to have had serious methodological flaws.
Giovanni
Have whatever values you have. That's what America is for.
You don't need George Bush for that.
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Post #175,521
9/21/04 6:51:40 PM
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Don't agree
I expect that the younger voters (that new segment in the other message) will watch.
Anyhow, its widely believed that Gore lost the election in the debates. But we'll have to see. I don't think its too late for him to turn it around.
That was lovely cheese.
--Wallace, The Wrong Trousers
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Post #175,536
9/21/04 8:10:48 PM
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Gore lost the election in the Supreme Court
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Post #175,502
9/21/04 5:26:19 PM
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I should point out...
...that I'd like to be wrong.
Peter
[link|http://www.debian.org|Shill For Hire]
[link|http://www.kuro5hin.org|There is no K5 Cabal]
[link|http://guildenstern.dyndns.org|Blog]
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Post #175,585
9/22/04 1:06:55 AM
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I foresee two possible outcomes
#1 Bush wins, but it is more like 55% as the surveys show.
#2 Due to the airing of F911 on Network TV, Kerry wins by 60%, just enough to swing some 15% of the vote over to Kerry.
Either way the USA is doomed. I've got a good mind to write-in "Mickey Mouse" like some people did when Nixon ran. :)
"When a true genius appears in the world you may know him by this sign: that all the dunces are in confederacy against him." - Jonathan Swift
[link|http://www.xormad.com:4096/district268|I am from District 268].
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Post #175,639
9/22/04 10:54:18 AM
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Oh my God, they killed Kenny
F911 has run it's course. More likely that the new [link|http://www.teamamerica.com/|Team America: World Police Force] will sway more voters.
Unfortunately, most Americans will fail to comprehend the notion of satire, and Bush will pick up votes as a result.
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Post #181,845
10/30/04 9:48:13 PM
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I predict lawsuits
I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
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Post #181,987
11/1/04 12:17:07 PM
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That's a hard one. :)
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