We don't know that much about transmission, and there is some evidence that it may be somewhat easier than initially thought, but the death rate is currently being estimated slightly lower than before (3.5% vs 4%):

[link|http://www.cnn.com/2003/HEALTH/03/29/mystery.illness/index.html|http://www.cnn.com/2...llness/index.html]
[link|http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/30/health/30INFE.html?ex=1049605200&en=515394677ffb382d&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLE|http://www.nytimes.c...62&partner=GOOGLE]

As for Toronto, what appears to have changed is that there is a public panic. They not only have to deal with the medical problem, but also the panic. If someone thinks that they might have it and you think that they don't, why not just tell them to isolate themselves? No real harm done, and they are out of your hair. A more detailed report describing how they were swamped:

[link|http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1035780018110&call_pageid=968332188492&col=968793972154|http://www.thestar.c...&col=968793972154]

And, speaking of panic, this is a very good time to re-read [link|http://www.vmyths.com/fas/fas1.cfm|http://www.vmyths.com/fas/fas1.cfm], all of it. It talks about a different kind of virus, but the phenomena that it talks about is universal. I also note that mere geographic proximity to an outbreak doesn't actually confer any actual expertise on the topic in question.

Yes, this disease is a serious public health threat. But when all is said and done, and the corpses are tallied, I am willing to bet that the panic over the disease will cost an order of magnitude more than the disease itself did - with little reduction in the actual long-term spread because of it.

Of course that bet is being made by a moderately informed person armed with no more than a broad general background, decent intelligence, and undue verbal facility. Insert appropriate levels of skepticism...

Cheers,
Ben

PS I actually am finally getting around to reading [link|http://www.lauriegarrett.com/index_betrayal.html|http://www.lauriegar...dex_betrayal.html] and I reiterate my recommendation to read it. It is a very good book that is extremely relevant to the current situation.

PPS If the name Laurie Garrett rings a bell, it is because she is the person who wrote the infamous description of what happened at the WEF...

As for SARS, an impending rise is a good reason to get more serious. As I said at first, with an untreatable disease either you succeed in confining it at the start, or you have to live with the consequences of failing. If current policy is not containing it, then it is better to go drastic early than to wait.

The more than 100 number is also confirmed at [link|http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20030329.umask0329/BNStory/National|http://www.globeandm.../BNStory/National].

Ben