The US might be a pariah of Europe, but it will have a few allies throughout the world who aren't from the Western school of thought that invasions require UN approval, especially in the Third World. A black market of goods will flow through these countries to the US, and from the US to countries which aren't officially doing business with the US but aren't stopping illicit imports either. These black market center countries get rich. The big question mark is China, which largely relies on trade with the United States and vice versa.

The embargo would be on Britian as well, and possibly other countries joining the invasion. Djibouti, Israel, Taiwan, Australia are not likely to give up US support even with a UN resolution. Ports of call there will keep US sea supremacy, leaving the US's ability to fight a war halfway around the world only marginally effected.

The US would probably leave the United Nations if such a resolution passes; I'd give a 40% chance of Congress doing this immediately after the embargo and if not, a >90% chance after GIs find Iraqi WMDs in a bunker in the desert. Israel might follow, as the UN actively works against its existence. Don't know if Bush is stupid enough to completely sever ties with the UN, but I expect someone with a brain to have diplomats or spies at the UN's new headquarters in Europe.

After victoly in Iraq, I expect a bombing of Iran's nuke reactors. Iran, Syria, SA, Kuwait, and Jordan then gear up to liberate Iraq. Kurds stay on the sidelines. Lebanon may stay on the sidelines, under Syrian pressure, just so the US doesn't have an excuse to invade Syria on two fronts. The armies get creamed in <2 months by superior US firepower, but Hezbollah keeps the US busy for the forseeable future. US wouldn't have the forces available to return the favour to all of these countries, so would just stay in Iraq. This might happen regardless of a UN denunciation/embargo of the US's actions.

Herat, which identifies strongly with Persia, may break off Afghanistan after the US attacks Iran. The US, which will still be in an Afghanistan that's not strong enough to kick them out, will probably let this happen and concentrate on the Pakistani border where al Qaeda is. Speaking of which, Musharraf will kick the US out to save his neck from his people while accepting bundles of US money under the table to keep up the fight against al Qaeda. India will solicit under the table help against Pakistan but won't get it.

With Taiwan supporting the US against the wishes of the UN, it's likely that the UN will declare Taiwan to belong to the PRC. This especially considering the UN does not recognize Taiwan as a sovereign entity and that the US has historically been the only supporter for Taiwan's continued existence in the UN.

After six months: Gas is up to $4.00/gal in the US. Inflation hits 15%/annum. Drilling in ANWR, other parkland passes as an emergency measure after Bush refuses to open the strategic oil reserve he's had filled for exactly this situation. A few labor strikes break out, all fail. Few changes militarily.

Europe would need three years to build a military to match the United States. Even then, they would only be able to compete for supremacy of the Atlantic and would not be capable of invading the US mainland or pushing a presence into the Indian or Pacific oceans.

After these 3 years: North Korea would have nukes, the United States would not care. The US would not care if NK overran SK if SK joined the embargo and kicked out US forces. After NK tests a nuke, Japan tests one within 2 weeks. Miniature cold war ensues, which ends when Kim's heir is assassinated in a military coup and the unified Korean generals make peace with Japan. Meanwhile, China and Russia supply both sides, with Russia leaning towards supporting Korea for historical reasons and China supporting Japan to spite Russia. Chinese propaganda begins to mention that Japan has changed a bit since the '40s.

The US would get used to a weakened economy, large segments of population made to rely on government support and church support funded by government, and so populace has good opinion of government and government-run churches. Bush reelected in landslide victory after blaming all hardships on Americans' lack of faith in God and on the Godless Europeans and Godless Muslims. Blair kicked out in landslidier victory, and Britain joins the embargo. Canada, probably a black market center, would be pressured by Britain to enforce the embargo. This may lead to threats of an invasion by the US, if not an actual invasion.

If Canada is invaded, Europe will begin to arm to match the United States (having not used any of the prior three years, with the possible exception of Russia). Unlike Canadian Bacon, the invasion is highly unpopular in the US, but dissent only leads to one or two Oklahoma Cities for which the perps are quickly caught. Russia gears up to liberate Canada and maybe keep Alaska as payment.

Israel stays out of the Iraq situation because all of North Africa is ready to invade it on the way to Iraq. Egypt stays out of the Iraq situation because it's a logistical problem getting troops over there, Israel is staying out, and the US is still giving it $4bil/annum.

Intifada casualties up to 5000 Arab and 2000 Jewish dead. Israel finishes building the Great Wall of Caanan, which the PA immediately launches Qassam-3s over. Arafat croaks of natural causes, UN Secretary General Mary Robinson condemns Israel for assassinating Arafat. New PA leadership suggests peace, announces that it will not negotiate with a terrorist like Sharon. Sharon steps down, new elections are held. Shinui proposes joining Europe in the embargo of the United States, watches half its membership disappear. Right-wing parties become openly Kahanist, an Arab right-wing party emerges that is openly Palestinian. New coalition is Likud-Labor-Shas-Shinui, in that order of power. Israel sends a peace delegation to Ramallah, Hamas blows it up, PA refuses to arrest perps, here we go again.

Berlusconi of Italy jailed for Mafia connections. Leftists elected, declare support of UN embargo and neutrality beyond that.

After six years: After initially seizing the entire territory, Russian forces have evacuated southern Alaska if not all of it, and are being beaten back in Siberia. One or two US aircraft carriers sunk in Pacific by Russian subs and air force, Russian navy largely ceased to exist. China-Japan axis on sideline. N^HK on sideline at Russian request so as not to involve China-Japan. China takes opportunity to make a grab at Taiwan, gets clobbered by Taiwanese forces. Shipyards and fleets of European countries pledged to liberate Canada are bombarded by US carrier-based aircraft, Euro fleet set back two years. Rumsfeld elected President of United States.

All quiet on al Qaeda front, GIs moved from Afghanistan to Iraq to put down growing revolutionary trend.

US-friendly governments in Georgia and Uzbekistan have been conquered by Russian forces or Russian-friendly coups. Chechnya blown to bits as enemy-of-evil-US Russia can do no wrong; not a threat any more.

At eight years: US left friendly Spain and Italy alone, surprised when their friendly fleets sink two US carriers in Atlantic and Mediterranean. Retaliation takes six months to arrive, sunk by combined European wolfpack built in that time. US down to four carriers: two in north Pacific, one in Persian Gulf, and one in San Diego.

US begins to learn meaning of "never fight a land war in Asia", bogged down against numerically superior Russian lines in Siberia, 6 figures dead both sides. Reinforcements arrive from mainland without a hitch, Russia sues for peace as they head towards the front line. US accepts on condition Russia accept US sovereignty over Canada and Alaska. Russia accepts, help promised from Europe five years ago never showed up and soldiers haven't been paid in months except by the CIA.

Following year, US deploys three new carriers, goes to attack European shipyards again. Meets Russian carrier built on the west side and French long-range bombers with long-range, accurate missiles. US cries fowl at Russia's breach of ceasefire, Russia points to defensive alliance with one of the countries the US bombed.

Eventually, Europe makes landfall on Canada and Russia invades Alaska again. As US moves forces north, Mexico invades followed by every single country to the south, eager for vengeance for the past century, shipping a long line of troops and supplies north. Revolts break out in hispanic and black communities. Retaliatory lynchings occur, the Ku Klux Klan becomes an honorable American institution again. Cuba conquers a few nearby islands.

Mexico installs a friendly government in California, which declares independence. Mexican forces are then beaten back by US forces, who enter California towns to find lead confetti for their victory parade; it turns out that many Californios wanted to secede. The coastal and Tehachapi ranges become the effective border between rebel-Mexican California and the United States, with the US controlling the central valley with its armour and air power. Forces from one of the Central American countries massacre hundreds of US loyalists in Fresno before being forced to withdraw, giving loyalists throughout the US a cause to rally around.

Canadian loyalists sabotage the US's efforts in the North. The US massacres thousands of innocent Canadians to get to them. Not long after, no USian is safe in a Canadian bar, and soldiers are ordered to remain on base.

Rumsfeld is reelected with 62% of the vote. A Republican activist in New York finds out that the voting machines in their district are registering every other Democratic vote as a Republican vote, and leaks the information to the Post, Journal, and to right-wing Times columnist Cal Thomas. The Post and Journal ignore the activist, who is soon killed in a nighttime mugging in Central Park. Thomas's report is largely uninflammatory. Rumsfeld condemns Cal Thomas as a Communist traitor and orders the Times shut down. The Washington Post sends agents to other parts of the country, where they find out the machines there are also rigged. After the Post's front-page story on this, which points out that the difference would have elected the Democratic candidate, Rumsfeld orders the Post shut down and the article's authors Robert Woodward and Carl Bernstein arrested. Several divisions of the military immediately surrender to United Nations forces.

The pro-Mexico puppet legislature of California is massacred by loyalist forces from Southern California, who pledge California to Rumsfeld. They are massacred by Communist forces from Oakland, who order the arrest of several prominent Jewish businessmen for causing all the problems of the past 70 years. They are massacred by a group of Civil War reenactment enthusiasts who actually conduct the countercoup in old blue and grey uniforms, clashing with their modern weaponry. They abandon the capitol as a rebelling mobile infantry unit advances. The APCs roll into Sacramento to see packed streets, with one man standing on the capitol steps addressing the crowd. He says his name is William Norton, and that the people need decisive leadership in these trying times, and he would be their Emperor for so long as they would accept him...


Hmm, this strayed from a thought experiment to a fun experiment a long time ago.

Too many holes. Strategically, the US has staunch European allies in Spain, the Netherlands, and Italy, and many of the Eastern European countries seem to support the US. The US can also spread around more lucre to get its way than France, Germany, and Belgium.

Economically, Canada relies on trade with the US and would hurt itself more by joining in an embargo than it would hurt the US. China might be in this position too, and there are probably others given the US's trade deficit. For at least a few nations, the benefits of joining the US in a rogue commercial union would exceed the costs. Several of those who believe the US is right would outright refuse to enforce the embargo. The embargo weakens over time as the free-trade nations reap benefits.

It is very difficult for a disunited world to interfere with another country's trade without blocking its ports. Since chances are the embargo would be doomed to failure in the long term, a symbolic limited embargo of 1 to 3 months would salvage the boycotters' reputation without allowing time for a rouge union to visibly defeat the embargo. Countries on the sidelines would see the end of the embargo weeks away and would be less inclined to break it.

Among the US's biggest weaknesses is oil, which means the embargo must include Venezuela (which makes most of its national income selling oil to the US), Nigeria, Indonesia, Russia, and the Gulf States. The US produces about half its own, and the reserve is enough to survive a shortened embargo such as I suggested. Still, limiting the availablity of oil is a good way of disrupting the US economy.

It's possible that the Internet might be included in the embargo, as it enables business communication, et cetera. I think this is a bad idea, as it cuts off the flow of information. Perhaps rig the gateways to ban all but port 80 and to filter out cookies.


The effects to the US's geopolitial position may be more significant than the economic harm. The US wants to reduce its presence in northern Europe anyways, so all the better if Germany gets the blame for a massive strategic disruption than the US. There will be some countries which may not join in the diplomatic/military boycott:

Iraq and Afghanistan: US won't be leaving these countries
Georgia: Too afraid of a Russian invasion to kick out the US
Israel: No other friends, will keep diplomatic lines open
Spain, Italy: Staunch US allies afaict. Italy will probably keep the US's bases there, maintaining the US sphere of influence over Europe and the Mediterranean
South Korea: Fear of North invasion may cause hesitation
Uzbekistan: US's buddy in middle Asia
Australia: Will keep diplomatic lines open, possibly ports as well
New Zealand: May ignore boycott if Oz does, especially of listening posts
Djibouti: The US has made this country its hub of operations for the Horn region, may be willing to pay the whole country's expenditures for a few years to keep the base. Then again, maybe it's not that important.

After an economic embargo ends, the US is permanently stuck with the effects of the military embargo. Its no longer has bases in nearly all but the above countries and will not be invited back to most of them. China may make bids for leases on a few empty bases.

Many countries may permit only smaller diplomatic teams to return. It's possible the economic embargo was also against US corporations, some of which are used by the CIA to insert spies around the globe. The US's intelligence operations are now hampered compared to beforehand.

Some countries may misinterpret the embargo against the US as a reason to weaken their antiterrorism investigations.


If well planned and executed, an embargo might knock the US down a notch or two, but I doubt that it would stop the US. After a (inUS?worst:best)-case scenario, the US still has force of arms and ability to move them wherever it wants.


I wonder what would happen if Canadian aircraft started dropping European newspapers (translated to 'murrakin) on US cities. Propaganda will play a big role in how this would play out in the long term. People tend to rally around their leader when they're being victimized, and a lot of folks in the US are already believing that Europe doesn't care about Sep11. The non-Bush point of view isn't getting across to any USian who isn't going out of their way to get it.