SCMP Wed 16th Oct

The following is extracted from several seperate items in today's paper

1) US sources are stating in reports it was 'an al-Qaeda car bomb'. US sources claim that same generic explosive was used in COLE attack in Yemen.

2) Local security people say the explosion was orchestrated to have maximum impact and in fact there were 4 actual explosions. Two small carry-bag bombs are understood to have gone off inside the two bars, this caused large numbers of people to rush outside where a later massive blast from explosives planted in the road or under the footpath, 'vapourized' some of the victims.The 4th explosion may have been a car bomb but it occured near the US consulate in Denpasar, some kilometers away. (### see my additional theories below marked ###)

3) There is a belief among some in Bali & Jakarta that rogue military elements [read Kopassus agents] may have arranged the blast for local (Indonesian) political reasons. This theory goes, that the military has been under attack politically since Suharto was ousted - by causing civil disorder & triggereing a blast that can be laid at the feet of Islamic terrorists, the Military will gain influence & power, also if the population become alarmed it will make it easier for a Military dictator (such as was Suharto) to take power. Local sources also say that the C4 explosive is a military explosive but was also used in several unexplained bomb blasts in Jakarta over the past three years.

4) The explosion was a well planned highly organized and expertly designed affair

5) The losers will be Indonesian govt who are now under intense US & Australian pressure to crack down on Islamic elements. The police are not able to do this so it will be up to the military. US & Australia will be satisfied as both those countries want to see any Islamic militancy squashed.
Abu Bakar's Jemaah Islamiah movement will almost certainly be outlawed. One other Indonesian Islamic group as already said they will voluntarily disband (analysts say they don't really know how militant groups can truly disband themselves).


************************

Also from todays International Herald Tribue (associated with NY Times & NY Post) have articles that ..

1) Are already stating it as accepted fact that it was an al-Qaeda car bomb [even though latest reports say it wasn't a car bomb at all]

2) That the explosion underscores what happens when a govt doesn't clamp down on Islamic militancy

3) That the Indonesian govt must now crackdown on all Islamic extremeists or the west (who control Indonesia's purse strings) will really being to squeeze the country's govt.

Cheers

Doug Marker

Update:>>>>
After a post by Arkadiy I have done some minor revision to the following text. Arkaidy quite rightly pointed out that one could interpret the remarks as 'no evidence will be acceptable'. That was not my intent - my original reference written way above above called the below additional 'theories'. So in order to clarify I am adding this line ...

"If I were a kopassus operative seeking to change the govt's stance on terrorism in Indonesia, I would try to do the following"

I share the belief of a number of western diplomats in Jakarta, that the perps of this particular attack, may have a local political motive not fully in-sync with al-Qaeda

DSM <<<<


### Additional theories (well these are my own thoughts) ...

The (alledged) two people who planted the small carrier bag bombs are likely to be Islamic dupes who may have known the bombs they had were to frighten or even kill a few people but had no idea that a massive blast would wipe out so many people scrambling from the first 'fire-cracker sounding' bombs they were asked to plant.
What they didn't know was who was really behind the blast (the real perps would tell the dupes they were part of a target Islamic group so that when these dupes get predictably caught they would blab what they believed to be true and thus be the smoking gun needed). The real perps would have made absolutely sure that the two dupes would be identified very quickly (unbelievably amazingly so) such as placing their id cards at the scene, or having other people who would step forward and swear they saw the 'dupes' place the initial small bombs.

That the guy who built the 'big' bomb - will be discovered very quickly (unbelievably and amazingly so) and will claim to be linked to the target Islamic groups much to their surprise and amazement (genuine) - again a dupe or, an Indonesian military agent willing to go through the trial but to be set free later.

That the smoking gun will thus be produced and the Indonesian govt will then be able to enact the crack-down laws they were not able to previously (else there will be a military coup in Indonesia).

Cheers & keep smiling (someone has to)

PS - latest word is that we are back to a car bomb built into the roof of a van. Also there are no end of comparisons of the C4 explosive having been used by every know branch of al-Qaeda (very little is said about how C4 has been used in Indonesian bombs many times over the past 3 years

An expert knowledge of how things happen in Indonesia,
The actual details that emerge, such did the caught perps belong to
al-Qaeda & for any length of time, how come their id cards were found at the site (a lynch-pin for suspicion)
&
one great big factor everyone wants to ignore a MOTIVE related to what the blast achived

DSM

(perhaps I should have added the line - this is how I would do the deed if I were Kopassus)

UPDATE>>>
Because your point is a fair one, I have updated the original text with a modification & a clarification ... thanks for the input - Doug

Yes some stories say that there was an admission from a former senior Airforce Officer (Lietenant-Colonel) who had been discharged last year for improper conduct & who had been to the US 3 times for training on building explosive devices and who was currently living in Bali. But other stories say that local officials deny he has admitted building the bomb but lived near the scene & rushed there after the blast to see what had happened. Police are merely questioning him, he is not a suspect ???.

Hmmmmmmm (murkier & murkier)

Another item talks about questioning a group of Pakistanis Muslims who claim they were in Bali to convert Hindus !!! (what with, I wonder)

Yet another says that there were a group of 7 Indonesians (not from Bali) led by a Middle Eastern person. This story says that they drove up in two vans, stopped infront of the club blocking the traffic, boys in the back vehicle got out & into the front one then a few seconds later boom.

Yet another story says that witness told police they saw two men place carrier bags at each of the clubs (on either sides of the street) then run away. An Aussie witness said he thought he heard fireworks go off then a few seconds later the big boom.

Another HK witness says that he was in one club when they heard bangs which sent people rushing outside right into the big boom.


Doug M

I had not thought of the angle that has Tangos using attacks on tourists to damage an economy on the basis that if the govt don't anti-up, the mess will cost them 10 times more at min.


as an aside
Last weeks Newsweek had stories about Ruskies in Chenenya & what they were doing to the locals positively makes the Kopassus look like really nice clean polite murderous bastards by comparison. The descriptions of what the Ruskies do to people they interogate is worse that what I had read about any Kopassus.

Doug

A smoking gun +

a MOTIVE that realistically relates to the effect the deed achieved.

As Bill & I keep implying - even a smoking gun needs to be put under the microscope & the 'investgators' need to have our confidence that they made available *all* the evidence.

Other than that of course if Bin Laden or Bashir step forward and say 'we done it' then what else can we do but accept the evidence.

Anyone who accepts evidence of a bomb blast in Indonesia without critical examination & lots of caution, would be either, the perp, god (allah), or someone who is naive.

Cheers

Doug