The oil market is still fragile, as today's events involving the UK and Iran illustrates. Who knows what Hezbollah or some other group in the Middle East might decide to do to get attention in the next 6 months. North Korea is still a crap-shoot, and Iran shows no sign of becoming less of a thorn in Bush's side any time soon.
Hamas now says the [link|http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Israel-Palestinians.html?hp|ceasefire is over]. There's increasing coverage of problems with declining housing prices and increasing mortgage foreclosures as documented at the [link|http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html|Housing Crash Blog]. It certainly seems likely that oil prices may have a cycle like [link|http://www.wtrg.com/daily/cbspot.gif|last year].
Oh, and North Korea is still a wild-card since nothing's been resolved there either.
If one is still feeling sanguine about the prospects for housing and oil in the next few months, there's always [link|http://www.kunstler.com/mags_diary21.html|Kunstler's] ray of sunshine. ;-)
Cheers,
Scott.