How would Israel know when they won?

Post #261,752 by Another Scott 7/14/06 3:31:31 PM Reply	How would Israel know when they won? Seriously. One of the big problems with the Lebanon situation, as I understand it, is that the central government is too weak to prevent [link\|http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hizbollah\|Hezbollah] from doing pretty-much whatever it (and Syria and Iran, if you believe the rumors) want. How will making war on a government and a country defeat a terrorist organization that the government can't control? Should Israel simply annex Lebanon or set up a [link\|http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protectorate\|protectorate] or something? (This is different from Afghanistan in that only 3 countries recognized the Taliban government as being legitimate, while Lebanon was recognized as sovereign; etc.) Hezbollah isn't going to permanently stop doing what it's doing as a result of Israel's actions. (Israel can't kill all of Hezbollah without killing many civilians as well; and even if it could it would just strengthen Hezbollah's ideology.) The government of Lebanon is too weak to get it to stop, either. AFAICS, the only way this can end is for Israel to either 1) declare victory and go home; 2) repeat the [link\|http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Lebanon_War\|1982 fiasco] and stay another ~ 20 years; 3) have some sort of wink-and-nod agreement with Hezbollah to release some of the prisoners, as they did in the [link\|http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Society_&_Culture/prisonerswap012904.html\|recent past]. Option 1 is what China chose in its [link\|http://web.mit.edu/cascon/cases/case_chv.html\|Teach Vietnam a Lesson] battles in 1979. Option 2 has been shown to be a long-term failure. Option 3 doesn't change the facts on the ground, but it costs much less in lives and destruction. Israel isn't going to get Hezbollah to say Uncle, and destroying Lebanon isn't going to help. The quicker it chooses option 3 (or 1) the better off everyone will be. Ideally, the UN would send in an overwhelming force to stabilize the country and disarm Hezbollah to end these provocations. But that's not going to happen and everyone making speeches demanding "unconditional" actions on various things at the UN knows that. My $0.02. Cheers, Scott. (Who wonders how long the UNSC is going to continue to be a toothless debating society...)
Post #261,785 by Arkadiy 7/14/06 10:14:40 PM Reply	Re: How would Israel know when they won? The war should be against Hesbollah, not Lebanon govt (I think Israel is not making it clear enough). Unlike al Quaeda, Hesbollah actualy controlls some definte territory, a territory where Lebanese Army does not go. The solution, I think, is to kill everything armed in that territory, and hope that the Lebanese govt will retain the control beyond it. If we are really lucky, Lebanon will disarm Hesbollah after it's sufficiently weakened by Israel. They wanted to do it for long time, but they have no resources to do it. Yes, many civilians will die. But the choice now is only between whose civilians will die, and when. There is no way to spare everybody. Unfortunately, this is a new property that the war aquired in 20th century. Civilians are no longer immune. That's what makes the very word "war" anathema to us. But the war will be waged, if not by Israel, then on Israel. And may be, soon, if not by us then on us. Actually, I am wrong. bin Laden did say many times that he is at war with us. His limitation is lack of capability, not lack of will. ------ 179. I will not outsource core functions. -- [link\|http://omega.med.yale.edu/~pcy5/misc/overlord2.htm\|.]
Post #261,830 by ChrisR 7/15/06 9:42:45 AM Reply	War on Hesbollah There is the distinct possibility that the Israelis action will cause (a) the Lebanese government to weaken if not collapse; and (b) Hesbollah will get stronger.
Post #261,892 by Arkadiy 7/16/06 8:22:56 PM Reply	Now that I had a few days to observe what Israel is doing, I have to agree with you. ------ 179. I will not outsource core functions. -- [link\|http://omega.med.yale.edu/~pcy5/misc/overlord2.htm\|.]

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