This will be "interesting" to watch

Post #182,844 by ben_tilly 11/4/04 3:22:48 PM Reply	This will be "interesting" to watch The funny thing about a weakening currency is that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Investors don't want to invest in a currency that is sliding because they won't get their money back. So they try to move their money elsewhere. But that means that they are trying to sell the currency that they were invested in - causing it to slide further. When this process escalates quickly, you get a currency collapse. Currency collapses become more likely when a country has systemic economic problems that make outsiders dubious that it can straighten its problems out. Problems including corrupt government, unrealistic commitments, and high debt loads. The USA long ago reached a point (particularly with debt) where currency collapse would be considered likely if it was a normal country. As we're all aware, the USA is not normal. And in the last few years the USA has been able to rely on the fact that other countries (particularly in Asia) will prop its currency up for their good. But the USA has been resting on this "safety net" more and more aggressively. If things continue as they have, I see no reason why the USA would stop doing so until the net breaks. I am morbidly curious about where this will prove to be. I highly doubt that the news of 4 more years of Bush will do it. Even the news that Bush is back with a big enough political victory to make him even bolder than before. But if it did, it could be interesting... Cheers, Ben I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
Post #182,848 by mmoffitt 11/4/04 3:35:09 PM Reply	Bring it on. bcnu, Mikem Eine Leute. Eine Welt. Ein F\ufffdhrer. (Just trying to be accepted in the New America)
Post #182,849 by deSitter 11/4/04 3:35:22 PM Reply	Catastrophe theory It's about time for a big one. -drl
Post #183,012 by pwhysall 11/5/04 7:29:57 AM Reply	Feh. Catastrophe theory says that there’s no such thing as “about time” :-) Peter [link\|http://www.debian.org\|Shill For Hire] [link\|http://www.kuro5hin.org\|There is no K5 Cabal] [link\|http://guildenstern.dyndns.org\|Home]
Post #182,853 by jake123 11/4/04 4:03:14 PM 11/4/04 4:05:14 PM Reply	I don't think it will be the bare fact of him winning but if the speculations about his second term being even more radical than his first one bear out (eh, phil?), then some action of his could fire it off. Say, a truly crazy overhaul of the tax code and killing social security. In fact, prolly killing social security is the more topping, because people would become broke, then homeless, which would mean other people (read family) would have to support them, thereby killing their disposable income, and leading to a much lower consumption rate. Since these folks by US dollars and lend the US money so the US will buy stuff from 'em, a big overhaul like that will likely get them to reconsider this... and kaboom. Edit: while I'm at it: [link\|http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/041104/markets_forex_6.html\|http://biz.yahoo.com...kets_forex_6.html] --\n-------------------------------------------------------------------\n* Jack Troughton jake at consultron.ca \n [link\|http://consultron.ca\|http://consultron.ca] [link\|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca\|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca] \n Kingston Ontario Canada [link\|news://news.consultron.ca\|news://news.consultron.ca] *\n------------------------------------------------------------------- Edited by jake123 Nov. 4, 2004, 04:05:14 PM EST Expand All History
Post #182,855 by inthane-chan 11/4/04 4:10:15 PM Reply	Wow, you're bumming me almost as much as Ben does.
Post #182,878 by daemon 11/4/04 5:50:17 PM Reply	Hope it happens a repeat of the eighties foreigners losing american assests hand over fist and we buy it back for pennies on the dollar regards daemon that way too many Iraqis conceived of free society as little more than a mosh pit with grenades. ANDISHEH NOURAEE
Post #183,538 by gdaustin 11/8/04 3:21:40 PM Reply	Time to visit Dallas Gold and Silver Exchange You'll need to keep your money in foreign currency or gold/silver/titanium/oil/commodities as the currency free falls. The dollars won't buy as much. Interest rates have been going up because of the dollar's fall, to prevent an auction where noone buys U.S. debt. Has nothing to do with the state of the economy. On the same note, we've had deflation for some time in parts of the country (Texas, Midwest), but it's been "masked" by inflation in other parts of the country. With incentives, it appears I can buy a better minivan in 2004 for less money than I did in 1998. In 1998, I bought a 3,000 mile Windstar with cloth seats for about $22,000. Now, the sticker for a Town & Country is $25,000, with $3,000 incentives and we haven't even started negotiating yet. And the van has leather and DVD, things we didn't get on the 1998 Windstar. The government has been hiding the deflation/stagflation as they've been hiding the job losses (or the dollar value of the jobs lost). Other countries should dock our currency for lies we tell in inflation and jobs alone. Glen Austin
Post #183,592 by daemon 11/8/04 5:59:15 PM Reply	dont put a lot into gold, just mad money ignore the falling dollar, wont mean much to you (or me) except if you live to buy foreign cars. Find a couple of investments that beat inflation and the banks that is rock solid and play a holding game. regards, daemon that way too many Iraqis conceived of free society as little more than a mosh pit with grenades. ANDISHEH NOURAEE
Post #183,604 by ben_tilly 11/8/04 6:57:53 PM Reply	What is the dollar going to be falling against? Investing in that other thing would seem to be a good idea... Cheers, Ben I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
Post #183,607 by gdaustin 11/8/04 7:11:34 PM Reply	Commodities and Assets In 1980, silver was $50 an ounce. Gold was $900 an ounce. It had bottomed out after Y2K at about $4 an ounce, and has been steadily climbing, now just above $7 an ounce. Gold was down around $300 an ounce, but I think it's above $400 now. If U.S. debt becomes "high risk", look for silver, gold, real estate, and other commodities to soar. Interest rates will soar, inflation will skyrocket as foriegn good will quickly become expensive. We need to be paying down our federal debt, not running perennial deficits. Glen
Post #183,616 by ben_tilly 11/8/04 8:01:20 PM Reply	In 1980 the Hunt brothers were going for broke They got there as well. :-) That $50/ounce for silver in 1980 represents fools parting themselves from a lot of money. It does not represent any sort of intrinsic value for silver. Furthermore commodities tend to be rather volatile but not very good long-term investments. From 1979 to now silver went from $5/ounce to $7 or so. From 1979 to 2003 it would have to get to $13.48 just to keep up with inflation. As you'll note, it didn't do that. Cheers, Ben I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
Post #183,626 by deSitter 11/8/04 8:41:21 PM 11/8/04 8:42:12 PM Reply	Sing it in the red states dude You Xtians are an expensive, bankrupting, homewrecking, heartbreaking, mean-spirited, greedy, self-indulgent lot of assholes. So live with your profligacy while your irreal soul is rotting away in some self-created imagined hell of your non-existent sky-pie worthless chickenshit God. Let Him battle with the Infidel Islamists, the mad bombers and airplane crashing murderers you have so very much in common with. -drl Edited by deSitter Nov. 8, 2004, 08:42:12 PM EST Expand All History
Post #183,646 by bepatient 11/8/04 9:54:56 PM Reply	Non-seq What are you on about this time? No republicans, women, christians or islamists.... whats that leave... Soon I think you'll have pared that number down to... Beeps guest list ;-) If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. _{Fudd's First Law of Opposition} [link\|mailto:bepatient@aol.com\|BePatient]
Post #183,702 by deSitter 11/9/04 4:23:15 AM Reply	Re: Non-seq Yes, and that's in jeopardy. I'm rather disgusted with the entire lot. -drl
Post #183,689 by pwhysall 11/9/04 1:48:32 AM Reply	Take yer meds. Cool it, Ross. Peter [link\|http://www.debian.org\|Shill For Hire] [link\|http://www.kuro5hin.org\|There is no K5 Cabal] [link\|http://guildenstern.dyndns.org\|Home]
Post #183,630 by daemon 11/8/04 8:57:39 PM Reply	get knowed up on gold [link\|http://www.goldensextant.com/LandisAMA.html\|http://www.goldensex...om/LandisAMA.html] The only problem with the inflation hedge theory is that it doesn\ufffdt work. Throughout history, both at times when gold was tied to legal tender, and at times when it wasn\ufffdt, gold has been a poor hedge against inflation. Indeed, it has consistently lost purchasing power during periods of inflation, and gained it during periods of deflation. This was the impeccably supported conclusion of the late Roy Jastram, who, in a book entitled The Golden Constant,[7] rigorously analyzed the purchasing power of gold in England and the United States from 1560 to 1976. now the drier but best research Ive seen on gold read the links then pull the prices. Compare the prices to the commodity prices of food clothing housing etc then extrapolate to today. regards, daemon that way too many Iraqis conceived of free society as little more than a mosh pit with grenades. ANDISHEH NOURAEE
Post #183,609 by andread 11/8/04 7:24:06 PM Reply	Re: What is the dollar going to be falling against? Look at the Euro was worth $.89 when it came out today $1.29 almost 50% increase in value or a big decline for US $ A Play I Some Music w/ Papa Andy Saturday 8 PM - 11 PM ET All Night Rewind 11 PM - 5 PM Reggae, African and Caribbean Music [link\|http://wxxe.org\|Tune In]
Post #183,613 by ben_tilly 11/8/04 7:47:47 PM Reply	Exactly where I was heading. :-) Even better yet, don't buy a foreign currency, buy debt denominated in that currency. You're betting on the exchange rate shift, and you're going to be earning interest in case that doesn't work out. Cheers, Ben I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
Post #183,606 by lincoln 11/8/04 7:10:14 PM Reply	deflation is already in Houston even though the weekend Chronicle keeps crowing about record sales of new homes, I checked with a real estate agent neighbor to see what my house could list for. After a CMA, she said that we could sell it for around $20,000 less than we paid for it 22 months ago, and then all of the fees involved in a real estate transaction take their cut before I would see one penny. So I'm looking at around a $40,000 loss right now if I have to sell. lincoln "Windows XP has so many holes in its security that any reasonable user will conclude it was designed by the same German officer who created the prison compound in "Hogan's Heroes." - Andy Ihnatko, Chicago Sun-Times [link\|mailto:bconnors@ev1.net\|contact me]
Post #182,879 by a6l6e6x 11/4/04 5:50:43 PM Reply	And all this will make US goods and services more... competitive worldwide. Also, imported goods and services will be more expensive. We'll work for peanuts. Just don't travel outside US. Alex In politics, what begins in fear usually ends in folly. -- Samuel Taylor Coleridge, poet (1772-1834)
Post #183,017 by mmoffitt 11/5/04 8:31:49 AM Reply	It would help if ... our manufacturing base hadn't already left the country. bcnu, Mikem Eine Leute. Eine Welt. Ein F\ufffdhrer. (Just trying to be accepted in the New America)

Welcome to IWETHEY!