Much as it distresses me to say it, I'm not optimistic about the result.
What Bush wanted to do was reinforce people's impression of him, and leave a couple of negative tags on Kerry. What Kerry wanted to do was make people understand that Bush has bad policies and distorts the truth.
Bush succeeded in his goals ("How can you lead troops when you say wrong war, wrong time, wrong place? A commander in chief doesn't do that."). Kerry tried, but he should have had more sets of simple, damning facts to put on Bush. (I liked the point about Bush pulling inspectors out of North Korea and then they got weapons, too bad he only said it once.)
Kerry didn't do badly. But it wasn't the convincing win that I'd like to have seen.
Cheers,
Ben