Post #1,731
7/13/01 2:45:00 PM
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Cringely on recent MS news.
No, not that Cringley, the other one. :-)
[link|http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20010705.html|And Your Little Dog, Too: Why the Recent Court of Appeals Judgement Isn't as Good or as Bad for Microsoft as Many People Think, and May Not Even Matter at All]
First, you have to understand the woeful state of the PC industry. The PC software and hardware industry is now way past recession. I call it a depression. Sales growth in dollars has been falling since 1996. Probably half of the U.S. software firms from 1995 no longer exist. U.S. fourth quarter 2000 sales were actually LESS than fourth quarter 1999 sales in both units and dollars. This kind of negative growth had never happened before. The largest software retailer in 1995 was Egghead, which made some truly stupid moves and is now an afterthought. If this is what happened to a big guy, imagine the atmosphere for small guys. Probably half the resellers in the U.S. are either in Chapter 11 bankruptcy, have been in Chapter 11, or are moving toward Chapter 11. The number of distributors has been cut in half, which makes people very conniving. Everybody is an extortionist, including the resellers, because everyone is being squeezed. And the outfit they most like to blame for these troubles is Microsoft.
(It's a real shame he doesn't write for IW any more...)
It's a good read. As usual, he makes some good points (like MS isn't to blame for [b]all[/b] the problems in the PC industry)...
Cheers,
Scott.
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Post #1,746
7/13/01 4:23:52 PM
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Yawn...and they'll move to another country..
honest.
I wouldn't mind hearing this one or twice...but it's boring in the end. Moving to another country would not help Microsoft.
In the end, the only thing that keeps Microsoft going is the fact that it can depend on US law to prevent 'unauthorized' copying. Furthermore, US law is what allows the BSA and other groups to go after people creating unauthorized copies.
Without US law, Gates can't collect a cent.
And does ANYONE really think that the US is still going to push & punish those who copy Microsoft Office when MS goes out of the country?
(It might, but it'll have to pay a LOT more than it has to US politicians to get them to stay on it's side.) Frankly, if MS leave, my opinion would be, screw 'em...let's 'em invade if they want the money that badly.
So moving out of the country is out. (Irregardless of what MS says.)
I sincerely doubt that a break up will occur...however, at this point, it would be very easy for the courts to say that OEM's can add/remove/configure Microsoft software in any way, shape, or form. This hurt MS worse than any fine. (And it'll help consumers.)
I also am hoping for (but not expecting) that the courts will rule that MS's software can be resold...that MS does not get the option to say that the software can be used only as they say.... of all options, it would benefit the consumer the most...but I don't expect to see it.
In the meantime...I'll keep playing with my Linux box.
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Post #1,753
7/13/01 4:59:19 PM
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Not really the issue.
The *big* issue, if they're not in the US... then its Department of Commerce that's involved.
And if Microsoft thinks that Netscape and Sun and etc can run to the DoJ NOW and get action, They Ain't Seen What DoC do.
And DoC ain't gotta do things "legal", either. Their process is slanted towards the complainant, and its up to the respondant to prove beyond a possible doubt that its wrong. :)
(Example: Company is making high-performance somethings. They put out a big and its won by a Japanese steel place. US Steel goes to DoC, and gets that stopped - despite the fact that they are not CAPABLE of delivering the purity and tolerances required. They merely say that they MIGHT be able to do that, and DoC orders the company to award them the contract. 2 years later, not a single shipment that meets the specs (that the Japanese firm was able to easily), the first company bellies up under the lawsuits they're under for failure to deliver....)
*THAT'S* What I'd be worried about. :) DoC allows farmers (the big corporate ones) to "estimate" what it cost foreign growers, and then decide "how much" profit is allowable... (In one instance I read about, Mexican fruit was declared to be "dumping" since the farmers _likely_ had 3 children each, who would have worked 40 hours, unpaid......)
I Don't Think M$ Wants to Face Sun Down, Down There.
Without US law, Gates can't collect a cent.
That law doesn't change.
When StarOffice was German, when Linux was in Finland, US copywrite law still protected them. And it'll still protect Windows and other Microsoft possessions even if they leave.
What it *will* do is *kill them* for the big, backend financial, travel, etc stuff that they want to do.
Those are the biggies. As well as the slight problem of getting the bandwidth that they enjoy in Redmond in Ecuador. :)
Addison
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Post #1,755
7/13/01 5:06:53 PM
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I doubt they'll leave either.
I think Bob was just throwing that in for laugh value.
One of MS's major power bases is in its stock value. Could they be listed on NASDAQ if they weren't a US company? I know that things like ADRs (American Depository Receipts or some such thing) lets foreign corporations list on US markets, but those listings are done by companies which also have a US presence - AFAIK. If MS was trying to run away, then I'd think it wouldn't want a US presence. But I'm just speculating...
MS is big enough that I'm sure NASDAQ would do whatever was possible to change the rules for it...
I don't expect a breakup either, but believe it's still on the table (depending on the judge who gets the case).
I also am hoping for (but not expecting) that the courts will rule that MS's software can be resold...that MS does not get the option to say that the software can be used only as they say.... of all options, it would benefit the consumer the most...but I don't expect to see it.
That indeed would be a very big help to consumers. But I'd think it would take some sort of action which extends beyond the MS case for that to happen. An act of congress or something restricting the terms which can be imposed on software licenses.
Cheers,
Scott.
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Post #1,759
7/13/01 5:35:07 PM
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Re: I doubt they'll leave either.
I think Bob was just throwing that in for laugh value
I took it as implying that they've got a leak on the team looking into it.
And I fully believe that. The leak, and the team.
Remember, this is Bill Gates we're talking about here. Damn straight he'd think of that. And probably, he'll get humored, more than argued with, at least until it gets more serious.
Fine, go ahead, look into it.
Run from the cops... see if it doesn't make them look more guilty and less ethical.
I don't expect a breakup either, but believe it's still on the table (depending on the judge who gets the case).
I'm hoping the DoJ and the remaining states will do something EFFECTIVE this time.
Microsoft's behavior in the interim should be a major part of the next remedy phase.
I still think, to be effective, they've got to be split:
Operating System
Internet (Server Apps)
Apps (Desktop)
Hardware
Multimedia
And maybe an "Enterprise", with the "Hailstorm" sort of stuff.
And I'd even let them pick how to split things, with some oversight.
Cept IE would go with the OS team, based on sworn testimony. :)
*That* would be effective, and force Microsoft to compete with people, disseminate information about interfaces, etc.
Addison
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Post #1,790
7/13/01 11:37:28 PM
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So Microsoft has moved to . . .
. . Paraguay (always popular with defeated war criminals). Now, if I were IBM, I'd pay off Serenity Systems, slap a Warp 5 label on the product and sue DoD and GSA over the "Buy American Act".
Holding the only viable desktop operating system with a "Made in USA" label on it should be worth a little something. The only viable competitor would be suspect due to close association with foreign powers (but is also sold by IBM just in case you are a One Worlder International Communist Vegitarian).
Microsoft would be forced to have their CDs stamped in the U.S. so they could claim "substantial American content", but I don't think that'd hold up in court unless they sell the package for under a dollar.
[link|www.aaxnet.com|AAx]
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Post #1,910
7/16/01 10:52:45 AM
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Hell, IBM wouldn't even have to...
I mean, Serenity's an American company. There'd be no reason why IBM wouldn't be able to benefit greatly from the relationship between the two companies, without having to deal with a lot of the support issues involved, and which they've always kinda sucked at anyway.
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Post #2,019
7/17/01 3:25:31 AM
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Tsk tsk, overlooking some things
In the end, the only thing that keeps Microsoft going is the fact that it can depend on US law to prevent 'unauthorized' copying. Furthermore, US law is what allows the BSA and other groups to go after people creating unauthorized copies.
There are other accounting things that may bring them down, like floats keeping their stock heading higher and higher and valuations of the stock options.
It may, if due diligence is done, be the accountants that bring them down. Of course, Microsoft can afford to buy off accountants faster than they can find things (as they seemingly have). Hell, I have a business major degree, I'll work as an accountant for a year or two if it would give me a paltry million or two.
French Zombies are zapping me with lasers!
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Post #1,756
7/13/01 5:29:42 PM
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I disagree with him.
"Times are lean and mean, and Microsoft is just meaner than its competitors. Microsoft is meaner than anyone."
There's a big difference between being mean and breaking the law. And the courts have found that MS did, indded, break the law.
"But do their actions have anything to do with creating current economic conditions? No, I don't think so."
I'll disagree again. Competition is good. With competition, you would (theoretically) seem more innovation.
That lack of innovation is what is hurting the market right now. What more does anyone need than Win95/MSOffice97? If they don't need it, they won't buy it. If they don't buy it, you can't sell it to them.
We had a HUGE rush when Netscape popularized the browser. What have we had since? What has MS provided to fill that hole left when they destroyed Netscape?
"Microsoft is certainly not the only successful software company. Look at Adobe, Intuit, Oracle, or Autodesk to prove that. Most importantly, does the average consumer think that Microsoft is extorting him? No."
Aside from Oracle, which of these is not a possible takeover target from MS? They already tried Intuit (the Government got in the way of that one). Wait for times to get a little leaner and you'll see MS eating others. Just like they ate Visio.
And the average consumer didn't think AT&T was extorting him, either. Just that long distance was expensive and the service was crappy. Hmmmm, sounds a lot like MS. But our phone system was better than what lots of other countries had.
"If you don't like Microsoft, stop buying their products. Go to Linux or Apple. There are alternatives, many of them cheaper and most of them better, so use them."
I'd expect Mr. Cringley to understand what the word "monopoly" meant. But I'd be wrong.
"They will begin half-hearted settlement negotiations with the DOJ -- half-hearted because Microsoft gets richer the longer it takes to settle. "
Agreement.
"All the while, they'll push every button they can find in the Bush Administration, which may well cave and let Microsoft off with a warning."
Agreement.
"But that doesn't eliminate the many states that are party to the original lawsuit. Microsoft will just have to threaten each of these in turn."
Agreement.
But if people can just move to Linux or Apple and the average person doesn't feel bad about MS anyway, then why concern yourself with any of these?
Really, why concern yourself?
"Understand something here -- Microsoft is a Spartan outfit, and Spartans like to fight."
Disagree. MS has not been able to advance ANY of its non-monopoly endevours. MS only understands MONOPOLY leveraging. Not fighting.
"Why $2 billion? Because that's about how much it would cost to move Microsoft offshore, something they will threaten to do."
This is so pathetic it makes me wonder about Mr. Cringley's mentallity. No, MS will NOT move to another country. They might THREATEN to, but if they move, they lose ALL of their US advantages.
Think the US government will be happy using non-US software?
Let's talk import tariffs.
And so on.
"I have no idea where Microsoft would move, but I know they are considering it. Let me repeat that: I KNOW THEY ARE CONSIDERING IT. "
Ooooohhhhhhh. Insider knowledge. That makes you sooooo 31337.
Yes, they probably are "considering" it. And then discarding it almost as quickly. There are too many DISADVANTAGES to leaving. MS cannot risk ANY threats to its monopoly.
Think about it. Just think about it.
XP is starting the move to network based systems.
Who is the biggest software consumer? The US.
Who has the best pipelines? The US.
What other country has sufficient pipelines to feed XP crap to the US? No one.
So, MS leaves the country and pushes XP and the US suffers pipeline starvation.
People are unhappy with XP.
And so on.
"The best solution I think would be for Gates and Ballmer to simply buy a small country and declare Microsoft's sovereignty. "
Again, go for it. Just shut up and do it.
"Once Microsoft is not only outside the USA, but is itself a sovereign nation, all anti-trust bets are off."
Think again. Do some research. Foreign companies have tried to monopolize US businesses before. And the Government didn't look kindly upon them.
"As a diplomat, Gates couldn't even be arrested for speeding on visits back to Redmond, a result that might make the move worthwhile in itself."
Again, just shut up and do it.
Stop waxing philosophical about how wonderous it would be.
Just do it.
Then face the reality.
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Post #1,807
7/14/01 9:44:49 AM
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Re: Cringely on recent MS news.
"Please understand that I still think Microsoft has broken laws and should be punished, and I happen to think that my particular suggested punishment (selling-off Microsoft's programming language group and giving the proceeds to registered users) makes a lot of sense,"
What the ???
What kind of sense does *this* make? Maybe one of you folks can explain his logic here?
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