Hiding deflation...

Post #114,131 by gdaustin 8/17/03 10:16:00 PM 8/17/03 10:16:50 PM Reply	Hiding deflation... One thing I think is really happening in our economy is that the government is encouraging companies to "keep prices stable" in an effort to mask off any perception of deflation. If you count discounted finance deals, real car prices have fallen dramatically in the past 3 years. Some cars, like the Ford Taurus, have even had price DECREASES on the sticker, in addition to the incentive money. If you're interested in an SUV right now, I've seen rebates as high as $4000 for Explorer Sport ( the 2 door model ). Most dealers are just turning inventory to keep the doors open. In one of the five fastest growing counties in the nation (Collin County, Texas), we just had a 1 year old Dodge dealership close the doors forever. I guess they didn't have the prior year profit margins saved up to weather the storm. The reason the incentives stay active is that buying has fallen off dramatically, especially for those working in the IT/technology sector. I also think, as a country, we have a demographic bubble of baby boomers who now have most everything they need, and they're concerned about debt, and they're starting to get concerned about retirement (as they should). My sister-in-law is right there. She's 52, about $40,000 in credit card debt, and the future is starting to worry her (as it should). Also, for those of us AFTER the boomers, we didn't buy so much into the consumption lifestyle as our older peers. I grew up with TV in the house since about age 4, so I've learned quite well how to ignore commercials, unless they're funny or grab my attention. I think the next generation is probably even better able to tune out the ads, and my kids ( age 8, 6, and 3 ) hardly even notice them, except maybe on Saturday morning cartoons, for cheap stuff they know I'll let them buy (like cereal or a trip to CiCi's pizza). They don't even ask about the toy commercials, they already know. We've reached a "saturation point" in this country with consumerism. For many people, if it's not free or really cheap right now, it's not under consideration. Edited by gdaustin Aug. 17, 2003, 10:16:50 PM EDT Expand All History
Post #114,195 by folkert 8/18/03 2:30:12 PM Reply	This is the meat... Not the Bargains, but what they mean... Well, also the fact that things like these "sales" aren't really as cracked up as to what they are. I am really asking for this to be a column... sort of a What do you Think... I mean, hey WTF do we in-fight all the time? I just want to make this place more able to be withstood by new people or by Veterans of *i_wethey. Quit sitting on your hands and type something.... TYPE SOMETHING... What you can do better for a Topic? Then Write it! -- [link\|mailto:greg@gregfolkert.net\|greg], [link\|http://www.iwethey.org/ed_curry\|REMEMBER ED CURRY!] @ i_wethey* Softly seething, surreal breathing... Ignite the cannon with sphagnum lanthum... Laud the armies of diphthongs with your superannuating Diphtheria.
Post #114,206 by Nightowl 8/18/03 4:09:01 PM Reply	In-Fighting (was Re: This is the meat... Not the ...) Well, also the fact that things like these "sales" aren't really as cracked up as to what they are. I am really asking for this to be a column... sort of a What do you Think... I mean, hey WTF do we in-fight all the time? Do you mean the whole forum be a column, or do you mean this thread? (A little confused). As to why do you in-fight all the time? Well, I have some observations on that one. :) (Course, you probably don't want them! Hehe!) One reason people tend to fight on the internet, in groups like this and other places, is lack of respect for each person's words and opinions. Even when the person is saying something I wholly disagree with, I think that I should still respect them when/if I respond, and do it with the best tact possible. Especially in a public group where everyone sees it (although I do my best to do it privately also). Granted, I'm not perfect, but I do my best not to piss anyone off and IF I do, I do my best to apologize and make it right, unless it's an irreparable situation. Another reason I think people fight, is they assume too much from past behavior. Granted, some people never change, but others do try, I know I've come a long way from the original message board poster that I once was on Affinity. But if someone has had a run in with someone in the past, and then they see a post and they automatically jump to the conclusion that this person will piss me off, or have nothing useful to say, or whatever, then most likely, they'll fail to see anything of value in the post. And lastly, I think it also has to do with convictions and feeling threatened. If someone has a strong conviction, and someone else opposes it, for some odd reason, many people feel threatened by that opposition. Sorta like the person is saying they are wrong, even if the person hasn't outright said that. I ran into this issue with someone in SWFC, bottom line, everything you didn't agree with with him, and you had claimed he was wrong, or bad or whatever... when you never did any such thing. Simply because I preferred VHS over DVD for example, made him right, me claiming he was wrong, and ultimately him trying to make me feel stupid or dumb for being "inferior". Anyway... just my thoughts on it Greg, since you asked. :) I just want to make this place more able to be withstood by new people or by Veterans of *i_wethey*. Sounds good to me! Nightowl >8# "I learned to be the door, instead of the mat!" "illegitimi nil carborundum" Comment by Nightowl
Post #114,215 by orion 8/18/03 5:48:46 PM Reply	Clash of the Egos, etc. Why fight? Why not just stick to the issues and topics instead? Well, fighting is easier than dealing with someone who is different. This happens in society a lot, someone thinks different, is different, may not have the same vierwpoints or knowledge as others, etc. Some see this as a weakness and attack. Call them an idiot or stronger words. Maybe find some grammar and spelling errors and attack them on that instead of replying in a civilized manner on the topic. The Internet has anonymous user accounts for everything, it is like having a mask on. Sometimes people act different behind a mask than they would in a real face to face discussion. On the Internet, nobody knows you're a dog, etc. I have found that some experts suffer from an overinflated Ego, they either think or know they are right and the other person is wrong or doesn't know what they talk about. This is the Know-it-all type of personality. How dare the other person even try to communicate about this topic the Know-it-all is an expert on? Depending on the personality type, if good they will discuss why the other person is wrong or misinformed, if bad they will go into a personal attack and start a flamewar. Sometimes the best way is just to ignore attacks and not reply to them. Don't fan the flames, or feed the troll. Let it burn out naturally. *"Lady I only speak two languages, English and Bad English!" - Corbin Dallas "The Fifth Element"*
Post #114,226 by Ashton 8/18/03 7:03:00 PM Reply	SOMETHING, then: the possible return of -??- that Econ (quel horreur) artfully dubbed [link\|http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1181\| Stagflation] Stagflation is a term that originated in the early 1970s to identify the simultaneous occurrence of recession and inflation\ufffda phenomenon that Keynesian theory had previously suggested was impossible. In Keynesian theory, recessions (and the unemployment implied by them) are cured by inflation, while inflations are cured by recessions. When both occur at once, the theory is not only seriously challenged, but fiscal and money managers are at a loss concerning what to do next. The industrialized world is reaching just such a policy dead end, with central banks at a loss as to what to do besides lowering rates further and having legislators attempt endless rounds of fiscal stimulation. Personally, then: I think that is just bafflegab too. Our 'Problem' lies much deeper IMhO, on the visceral level. I feel cough that, just as with the entire pseudo-science of "The Law" - the owl entrails employed by the [vast majority of claimed] Econ-o-mists are particularly putrefied.. when not actually set in the concrete/stasis of Worshipful-Keynsian scripture {than which there is no Holier other$-God} The ENTIRE basis / perpetual mantra of this grouping of religio-sectology is a simple concept to master, and a sterile un- anti!- human, digital-think one, too: Unlimited Growth is (The) GOOD And.. it's perfect analog is Cancer -- that Word is as SHUNNED as any wreath of garlic or Xian Rood-thingie is to the comic-book Vampire. Malthus is utterly reviled - as is the entire mathematics of umm exponential growth (VS - the rather er geometric 'growths' of lots of other nameable processes we have been cataloguing for a few millennia). We catalog reel well, but nobody with Power is the slightest bit interested. Beyond election. ie Unless and until - 'We' (and not just US - but unarguably, We Be the Champeen Piggies of All Time and Space\ufffd) BEGIN to reevaluate our ideas of such huge mis-conceptions as Progress (!) and even, Yes! what.. the Idea of Wealth: Now Mean to 'us' -- and what a more mature, survival-oriented (and ultimately much more emotionally Satisfying adult definition) might come to Mean -?- Until THEN: most all the bafflegab shall merely intensify, involute into recursive, shouted circular Disneyland-comfy Election Slogans du jour. As always. It would take massive GUTS.. to face so basic a Farmily Valuez slogan-grade Error - no? WE AREN'T SERIOUS AT ALL: about even plain surviving on an endangered planet whose numberless [1]ecology litmus tests are SCREAMING AT US !! to begin the painful, wrenching Moving On from Adolescence ---> into a stage of sane maturity - Admitting simply that - we have been behaving EXACTLY like The Lords of the Flies, as coached by Attila and a plethora of duelling Corporate Religio-sects: NONE of whom care about "The Planet" or its lifeforms but only about A) Their temporal positions of Power Now. B) The perpetuation of That Next. All under the guise of variations-on-the theme, "After-life" you can get the virgins IF you pay Our sanity-tax and $-tax Now. This is infant-class metaphysics and succubus-class psychology. It's also very very fatal to much longer habitation of this finite-but-unbounded Lone oblate-Spheroidal Home. [1] [link\|http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2003/08/16/MN227977.DTL\| The Reefs Are Dying]. Not new this phrase, and usually the Tee-Vee attention-span guarantees that - each New Time the New Data comes in: ho hum. The reefs are the sanctuary for the greatest [by 2-3 orders of magnitude] diversity of lifeforms known - in the sea. (Maybe - incl. land) Remember the word monoculture - and what occurs genetically.. over.. time.. with such? Remember the depths of 'our' ignorance about so much of that largest area of the planet which we are in process of trashing, so evidently? Our Main Food source (too). Remember that We Do Not Remember ?! precisely as, the one thing history teaches us is: we do not learn from history [either]. You Asked. Radical solutions are the only appropriate scale of 'solution' for suicidal root attitudes: that is not even my opinion; it's Fucking Intuitively Obvious to anyone who can read Language. root / radix / 'radical' /. QED (I Don't Think WE Have The Guts to Try for Anything as Scary as 'Truth' about the 'situation' with the Planet.. let alone (!) to examine disastrous, archaic and rampant religio-fantasies of Personal Omnyipotence and all that Jazz.) Besides - The US doesn't even have real citizens anymore - just consuming ignorant sheep. Ignorant and Proud Of It. It's the PHB-Age of Socially-acceptable Unconsciousness.
Post #114,262 by gdaustin 8/19/03 12:30:01 AM 8/19/03 12:32:26 AM Reply	Finance 101 When I took my first finance course (it was actually 303, not 101), the interest rate had two major components, the federal rate (or prime lending rate which is tied to the federal rate) and the Beta. The Beta is the risk that the lender was incurring to earn interest from this investment. In economies with tight monetary policies, lowering the federal (prime) rate would put money into the economy, by making more dollars available for borrowing to people. However, noone ever seems to look at the Beta, the risk. Even though the 30 year federal rate is at a 40 year low, mortgage rates are climbing. In fact, I walk by the Bank of America in my building every morning where the rates are posted for 30 and 15 year fixed loans. The rates have steadily climbed since June. Why? One word. Risk. The factors that make home loans a low risk proposition are rapidly becoming risky. First, there's talk of a price "bubble", basically stating that most home are overvalued by some percentage. When this overvaluation exceeds 20%, then they become risky because banks historically have required 20% downpayments to cover the downside. Many banks and finance companies bent these rules to allow 10% or less in downpayment, and now the devaluation risk increases. Add to that the unemployment rate, and the fact that most who do get laid off are replacing only 50-75% of their income and you can understand why the risk is rising. Another risk factor is dollar devaluation on the International Market. If the dollar devalues, then foreign purchasers of U.S. government bonds will require a higher interest rate to purchase. An auction will result in no buyers (or few buyers) of U.S. securities, and then they will have to be reauctioned with higher pricing. The combination of these factors means that the risk is soaring, and banks are responding, despite the low fed funds rate, by raising interest rates. The other thing, I think has happened in our economy is that we didn't listen to John Maynard Keynes. His economic theory was that the United States would pump extra money into the economy during recessions and take extra money out during times of rapid growth. The idea was to smooth out the business cycles to where, at least in theory, wild swings in the economy didn't occur. The problem is that, in good times, we haven't paid down our public debt. The U.S. is attempting to stimulate their economy ALL THE TIME through deficit spending, and never paying back the debts. At some point, the purchasers of U.S. securities will stop buying, will demand higher interest rates, and the U.S. will have a serious problem on their hands. Because at that point, Alan Greenspan will not be deciding the interest rate, our creditors will. We could respond by seriously devaluing the dollar relative to foreign currencies, but that will drive investment away from America and into other countries. I actually think that many companies are investing in foreign IT workers, because they realize that this debt bomb will eventually go off. When it does, goods will disappear from America, gas will cost $10 a gallon, food will soar, and everyone will be scrambling to get rid of their dollars, buying anything to avoid holding worthless dollars. Just think of the future in Brazil, Argentina, or Russia and you get the idea. It's not stagflation, it's simply the fact that at some point, the U.S. will have to default on our national debt, and God help us on that day. Edited by gdaustin Aug. 19, 2003, 12:32:26 AM EDT Expand All History
Post #114,255 by gdaustin 8/18/03 11:17:24 PM 8/19/03 12:33:46 AM Reply	But, do you think... We've really reached a saturation point? I think we have, the economic growth of the late 1990's allowed us to collectively purchase Internet service and cell phones. However, with the recent declines in the early 2000's, many people are deciding between cell phone and home phone. I tried the PDA craze by buying a used Palm Pilot on the cheap (about $35 for everything) and quickly realized that I simply don't have the patience to scribble everything in with the darned stylus. So, I'm not buying into PDAs. With the recent PDA sales declines, I think most people agree with me. Now, the question comes out, are laptops replacing desktops now? I think the answer is yes. In a tight economy, we're making either / or (or possibly even neither decisions), so many things that even appear to be good ideas (like PDAs or wireless Internet) are not selling. The bottom line, I really do think we're at a saturation point, or even at a negative satuation point where income is declining, so people might even be choosing between air conditioning and food. When the choice is A/C or Food, Internet Access comes from the library, for free. I've actually thought about terminating my cell phone coverage, because my wife and I bought a plan that expensive, almost $90 a month with taxes. When I had a 1 hour commute each way, it made sense. Now with a 20-30 min commute, it doesn't. If the economy remains tight, I think you'll see declining Internet Access, cell phone sales, PC sales, etc. for a time. If the economy doesn't improve, these luxuries will only be kept by the rich. If you can't feed and clothes your kids, do your really give a damn about Internet access? Glen Edited by gdaustin Aug. 19, 2003, 12:33:46 AM EDT Expand All History

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