At the moment, I think it'll go something like this.

1) Hillary will win re-election to the Senate easily. The Senate will go Democratic, and Hillary will become an important person in the Senate leadership. (Dunno if she'll get an important committee chair.) She'll build a record to enable a later run for President.

2) Gore, Kerry, Edwards, and a few others will make serious efforts to run for the 2008 Democratic nomination. Hillary won't run in 2008.

3) Obama will feel pressure to enter the race, but will instead spend more time working on building a record in the Senate. He'll be asked to run for VP and will accept.

My guess is, the Democratic ticket will be Gore/Kerry/Edwards and Obama in 2008. As [link|http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/23/AR2006102301033.html|Cohen] points out, Kerry, and Clinton have their Iraq vote hanging over their heads - as does [link|http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/11/AR2005111101623.html|Edwards], but he has said he was wrong. Gore doesn't. A ticket with Obama would be quite formidable, assuming he has some substance to back up his eloquent words.

Choosing between Gore (who has indicated he's not interested in running), Kerry (who is interested, but has lots of baggage he'd have difficulty overcoming), and Edwards (who has some baggage but more importantly (remember that tape of him primping his hair?) is often regarded as a lightweight) is difficult at the moment. If X/Obama doesn't succeed, then Hillary and Obama will be well positioned in 2012.

Cheers,
Scott.