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New "So Noam is an idiot" - I think that was his point. :-)
Hi,

Thanks for taking the time to post your reactions to the article. But it's very difficult to separate your comments from the text. Please consider using italics or html blockquotes to separate the original from your comments. Especially in long articles. Thanks.

You quote and write:

"Noam Chomsky bent facts to claim that Bill Clinton's misguided attack on a Sudanese pharmaceutical plant in 1998 was worse by far than the massacres of September 11."

So Noam is an idiot.


I think that example sums up the author's argument pretty well. I was thinking of Chomsky during the early part of the original article. It would (potentially) be interesting to read Chomsky's rebuttal.

I want to address one other part of your long post. You write, at the end:

And, once the flaws are found, we must strive to correct the situation and work to remove those flaws from our national character.

The first requirement is removing our dependancy upon their oil.


I'm sure you're aware that Saudi Arabia is fortunate to have a huge fraction of the world's proven oil reserves - 26% according to the [link|http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/sa.html|CIA Factbook entry for Saudi Arabia]. It's also extremely efficient in pumping and processing crude, so its cost of production is very low.

While the US is the [link|http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/oilgas/wep/mission.htm| world's largest energy producer], it's also a large importer - especially of crude oil. But we aren't primarily dependent on oil from Saudi Arabia for our imports. About half of our imported oil comes from Canada and Mexico according to [link|http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/petroleum_supply_annual/psa_volume1/current/pdf/table_29.pdf|this] PDF table from the EPA. Net US imports in 2000 from Arab OPEC countries totalled 2.410 M barrels/day, non-Arab OPEC countries (mainly Venezuela) totalled 2.143 M barrels/day, and non-OPEC (primarily Canada and Mexico) totalled 4.476 M barrels/day.

Most of the OPEC oil goes to [link|http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t38.txt|Japan] - 4-5 M barrels/day, and [link|http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t39.txt|OECD Europe] - 5-6 M barrels/day.

The US is a big importer of oil from OPEC and non-OPEC countries (we're averaging around 9 M barrels/day now). But the US isn't the primary market of Arab OPEC oil.

But as we all know, oil is a commodity which is strongly driven by supply and demand. Saudi Arabia has a large fraction of the supply, and low production costs, so they have a large influence on the market. Only huge new discoveries outside the region will change SA's influence - something that may not be very likely.

So, when you write:

The first requirement is removing our dependancy upon their oil.


I have to ask: 1) How do we - the US - get Europe and Japan to remove their greater dependency on Arab OPEC oil? 2) What do we do to change the fact-of-nature that a large fraction of the world's proven reserves are in the Middle East? 3) What can the US do in the near term to dramatically reduce our dependence on imported oil?

These questions can't be answered simply, IMHO. Like you, I wish for a time when the world economy isn't so dependent on oil, and for a time when the US isn't dependent upon commodities from unsavory regimes. But the conventional approaches to this problem - conservation, increased fuel economy standards, etc., won't lead to dramatic near term improvements. The world economy will be greatly dependent upon oil for at least the next 10 years. I'd guess it's more likely to be dependent upon oil for at least the next 25 years.

If you accept my guess that the world economy will be greatly dependent on oil for the next 25 years, what do you suggest be done to mitigate its adverse impact in our relations with the Middle East?

I personally feel the region will continue to be unstable - e.g. I expect upheavals in Saudi Arabia in the next 10 years - and that the political situation there will continue to deteriorate. But I don't know what can be done about it if moderate democracies don't take root there.

My pessimism doesn't mean that I think we shouldn't try. Of course we should try to reduce our dependence. But I've yet to see concrete proposals that I think will have much impact on the oil dependency situation. Have you?

Cheers,
Scott.
New re "near term"
For all of my adult life, I've been aware that (at least some Americans were aware of) 'the oil situation'. Your refs clarify a bit the interconnectedness and the fact that SA per se is not the major supplier - but may indeed be the critical determinant of "worldwide cost" - via its efficient production.

Yet, and over decades: "near term" has ever proven to be the euphemism for doing Nothing (while sometimes funding of a few $M, never $B - !! - all those alternative ideas as doubtless most here are aware of). But like an (early) recycling plant which supplied energy to a nearby town, but at a cost ~ 3% higher IIRC than a plant burning that SA sweet crude: project was dismantled. This was over 30 years ago! The exact details are irrelevant; the attitude - which persists to this day, is not.

IMhO we have been determinedly anticlueful about our habits of waste and about the actual int'l costs of our machinations to get lots of oil cheap (in $ - ignore other 'costs' like the hate? byproduct that was the above topic)

Yours has always been a Good Question to ask: what *NOW* should we do, next and soonest? It is just that: Murican 'policy' has been to answer that with a yawn.

After 9/11 -?- Everything has changed. Nothing has changed (re this matter). No, I have no idea what would be required to change this yawn to an interested stare.. of stupefaction.


Ashton
New Simple, we don't.
"1) How do we - the US - get Europe and Japan to remove their greater dependency on Arab OPEC oil?"

Simple, we don't. We are not responsible for them. Nor are we responsible for ensureing they have a sufficient supply of oil.

We get ourselves off of the oil and that shifts the whole focus of our foreign policy.

"2) What do we do to change the fact-of-nature that a large fraction of the world's proven reserves are in the Middle East?"

Simple, we don't. We get ourselves off of their oil. We don't try to change facts. We get ourselves off of their oil.

"3) What can the US do in the near term to dramatically reduce our dependence on imported oil?"

Define "near term". 6 months? 1 year? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years? 100 years?

The short answer is that we can't. This is a long term project.

But we do have some options. Just like back during the oil embargo. Remember that?

"These questions can't be answered simply, IMHO."

Actually, I think they can. But some of the answers will not be popular.

"Like you, I wish for a time when the world economy isn't so dependent on oil, and for a time when the US isn't dependent upon commodities from unsavory regimes."

Wishing will not make it so. Oil is the EASIEST fuel for us to use. Switching will be hard and will require some sacrifice.

"But the conventional approaches to this problem - conservation, increased fuel economy standards, etc., won't lead to dramatic near term improvements."

Again, "near term" needs to be defined. We've lived like this for too long. We can't switch over in a year.

But does that mean that we shouldn't plan to be off their oil in 20 years?

And 20 years away is always 20 years away until you take that first step that first year.

"The world economy will be greatly dependent upon oil for at least the next 10 years."

And wouldn't it be in our national interests to be the first nation off of their oil?

"I'd guess it's more likely to be dependent upon oil for at least the next 25 years."

The reality is that we will be dependent upon their oil for as long as they have the oil.
If we don't change ourselves, we must wait for the world to change.

"If you accept my guess that the world economy will be greatly dependent on oil for the next 25 years, what do you suggest be done to mitigate its adverse impact in our relations with the Middle East?"

Step #1. Next year we will import 1/20'th less oil from them.

Step #2. The year after, we will import 1/10th less oil from them.

and so on.

We also need to increase the mpg of our cars and do whatever we can to reduce the amount of oil each person consumes (buh bye SUV's).

Like I said, it won't be easy. But it is in our national interests to do so. And the sooner we start, the sooner we will be off of their oil.

"I personally feel the region will continue to be unstable - e.g. I expect upheavals in Saudi Arabia in the next 10 years - and that the political situation there will continue to deteriorate."

Agreed.

But the question is "why"?

What is it about that region that makes it so unstable when other portions of the world are stable?

Hmmmm?

Find the problem and the solution presents itself.

"But I don't know what can be done about it if moderate democracies don't take root there."

Again, why don't they?

Find the problem and the solution presents itself.

"But I've yet to see concrete proposals that I think will have much impact on the oil dependency situation."

Short term or long term?

We cut our oil usage back during the embargo.

But they know we're weak and oil-addicted.

So, they drop the price and we start buying SUV's.

The long term solution will not include gasoline powered SUV's.

Nor a lot of other "essentials" we have today.

Which is why these proposals aren't "feasible".

At least, they aren't "feasible" today.

We're addicted and we won't admit it.
New Hey Khas, there IS an (ultra-easy-to-use!) Quote select box!
     Some on left see something wrong with *hard* leftists. - (Silverlock) - (59)
         A very good read. Thanks for the link. -NT - (Another Scott)
         Straw Man Anyone? - (andread) - (35)
             Ermmm.. Uhh, It's an *opinion* piece. - (Silverlock) - (34)
                 I'll be the example. - (Brandioch) - (33)
                     "So Noam is an idiot" - I think that was his point. :-) - (Another Scott) - (3)
                         re "near term" - (Ashton)
                         Simple, we don't. - (Brandioch) - (1)
                             Hey Khas, there IS an (ultra-easy-to-use!) Quote select box! -NT - (CRConrad)
                     Whew! A maelstrom of mixed metaphors + micturations. - (Ashton)
                     Oh, my. - (Ric Locke) - (27)
                         OK.. the species isn't ready for sweet Reasonableness - (Ashton)
                         I didn't know we were responsible for everyone. - (Brandioch) - (25)
                             Oh, dear. - (Ric Locke) - (24)
                                 I didn't know we were responsible for everyone. (again) - (Brandioch) - (23)
                                     Re: I didn't know we were responsible for everyone. (again) - (wharris2) - (1)
                                         Which leads to my other point. - (Brandioch)
                                     Brandi, USE the freaking QUOTE BUTTON! That's what it's FOR! -NT - (CRConrad) - (7)
                                         Hey, cut him some slack. I've never noticed it either. - (Another Scott) - (6)
                                             Use "Split Block" to save on cut-and-pasting. :-) -NT - (CRConrad) - (5)
                                                 Eh? I don't understand the usage I guess. - (Another Scott) - (4)
                                                     How "Split Block" helps cut down on cut/paste: - (CRConrad) - (3)
                                                         Thanks. - (Another Scott) - (2)
                                                             You're welcome! -NT - (CRConrad)
                                                             Reassuring that I'm not the only one who - (Ashton)
                                     We aren't responsible for everyone. - (Ric Locke) - (12)
                                         I wasn't aware of that. - (Brandioch) - (11)
                                             Do you have some kind of religious objection... - (CRConrad) - (10)
                                                 Did I miss something? - (Brandioch) - (6)
                                                     Yes, you did. I refer to ALL your posts EXCEPT the one above -NT - (CRConrad) - (5)
                                                         Christian, I've disagreed with you once or twice - (Ric Locke) - (4)
                                                             Oh, yes.. - (Ric Locke)
                                                             Since the weathervane has struck a vein and - (Ashton)
                                                             Feel free to not address my points. - (Brandioch) - (1)
                                                                 The treaty at the end of ww2 - (boxley)
                                                 Minor disagreement. - (Ashton) - (2)
                                                     Sorry, but you're just plain wrong. - (CRConrad) - (1)
                                                         Well..________OK, - (Ashton)
         Self examination... better late than never. - (marlowe) - (21)
             Within your digital Left/Right world - (Ashton) - (1)
                 I can see your underwear. - (marlowe)
             But *what* is it you are "winning", exactly? - (CRConrad) - (18)
                 Touchy, touchy. -NT - (marlowe) - (17)
                     "You ruminated for two days, and came up with this?" -NT - (CRConrad) - (16)
                         Less than a day, actually. - (marlowe) - (15)
                             It was a *quote*, nitwit! (Recognize it, by any chance?) - (CRConrad) - (14)
                                 Ohhh, you're lots of fun! - (marlowe) - (13)
                                     Why worry now? - (ben_tilly) - (1)
                                         What an intolerant thing to say. - (marlowe)
                                     A simple "I don't have any answer" would have sufficed for U - (CRConrad)
                                     Boooooooooooooooooooooring - (pwhysall) - (9)
                                         Yeah, you're right. Sorry. - (Ric Locke) - (8)
                                             Ehh... Dunno. What's a skeg? :-) -NT - (CRConrad) - (7)
                                                 Sorry. Your English is so good - (Ric Locke) - (6)
                                                     It's news to me! - (Meerkat) - (2)
                                                         I think the West Coast U.S. usage - (Ric Locke) - (1)
                                                             Cool! Easy to tell I've never surfed :) -NT - (Meerkat)
                                                     Ah, that's what I thought it might be. - (CRConrad) - (2)
                                                         skeg: skank at a kegger -NT - (boxley) - (1)
                                                             ROFL -NT - (Silverlock)

Only a Stephen Hawking vs. Larry Flynt joust could compare in terms of universal significance.
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