Take a look at [link|http://www.betfair.com/betting/MarketView.do?mi=225691&origin=LHM|http://www.betfair.c...225691&origin=LHM] and watch - the figures are now (1:30 PST) pretty even.

I didn't read closely enough. The odds that they give for Kerry are 2.3, meaning that if you put $1 down on Kerry winning, and he does, you will get $2.3. That corresponds to a market which thinks that Kerry's odds of winning are about 43.5%.

I believe that his odds are much better than that, and would have put money down on the proposition, but as an American I cannot bet on that site.

If anyone outside the US is willing to create an account and place a bet backing Kerry to the tune of $100 (US) for me, I'll be willing to pay you for it. But if you do, I'd suggest posting here first. I wouldn't want 3 people to place bets for $100 each when I'm only going to send money to one of them...

Cheers,
Ben