Post #182,036
11/1/04 3:28:43 PM
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Shrub behind in Faux poll!
[link|http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm|http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm]
46-48-1-5
-drl
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Post #182,038
11/1/04 3:31:21 PM
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When your own propaganda machine can't spin it...
...you know you're in trouble.
Don't get the victory pins ready yet, folks. We've got 36 hours 'till the fat lady sings - and her song is likely to last a few weeks.
All I want for my birthday is a new President!
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Post #182,040
11/1/04 3:32:21 PM
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May the last note not be pitchy and off key
A good friend will come and bail you out of jail ... but, a true friend will be sitting next to you saying, "Damn...that was fun!"
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Post #182,039
11/1/04 3:31:34 PM
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Keep repeating to yourself:
"Margin of error".
Regards,
-scott anderson
"Welcome to Rivendell, Mr. Anderson..."
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Post #182,051
11/1/04 4:02:27 PM
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Could be trying to mobilize the troops!
If they said the election was "in the bag" for Bush, some would stay home.
Don't forget their audience. When engaing your brain is optional, some need a kick in the pants to go to the trouble of voting.
"If you don't vote, it will be your fault!"
Alex
In politics, what begins in fear usually ends in folly. -- Samuel Taylor Coleridge, poet (1772-1834)
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Post #182,056
11/1/04 4:20:00 PM
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Carter lead Reagan in 1980 in the last poll as well.
bcnu,
Mikem
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt."
-Bertrand Russell
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Post #182,059
11/1/04 4:24:57 PM
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Then there are the gamblers predicting Wictory
[link|http://news.com.com/The+bets+are+in--Bush+to+win/2100-1023_3-5432489.html?tag=nefd.pop|http://news.com.com/...html?tag=nefd.pop]
Although U.S. opinion polls are still finding it hard to separate President Bush from his Democratic challenger, Sen. John Kerry, customers of Betfair, an online betting exchange, have overwhelmingly backed the Republican candidate.
---
They have Bush winning at 1 to 5.
Or Kerry paying 2 to 1.
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them." --Albert Einstein
Step 1: THINK!
Step 2: VOTE!
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Post #182,066
11/1/04 4:35:52 PM
11/1/04 5:44:13 PM
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Oops, they are right
Take a look at [link|http://www.betfair.com/betting/MarketView.do?mi=225691&origin=LHM|http://www.betfair.c...225691&origin=LHM] and watch - the figures are now (1:30 PST) pretty even.
I didn't read closely enough. The odds that they give for Kerry are 2.3, meaning that if you put $1 down on Kerry winning, and he does, you will get $2.3. That corresponds to a market which thinks that Kerry's odds of winning are about 43.5%.
I believe that his odds are much better than that, and would have put money down on the proposition, but as an American I cannot bet on that site.
If anyone outside the US is willing to create an account and place a bet backing Kerry to the tune of $100 (US) for me, I'll be willing to pay you for it. But if you do, I'd suggest posting here first. I wouldn't want 3 people to place bets for $100 each when I'm only going to send money to one of them...
Cheers,
Ben
I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
Edited by ben_tilly
Nov. 1, 2004, 05:44:13 PM EST
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Post #182,060
11/1/04 4:26:01 PM
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Remember that undecideds tend to break for the challenger
In 1980 that worked against the Democrats. This year that works for the Democrats.
Cheers,
Ben
I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
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Post #182,072
11/1/04 5:05:00 PM
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Understood. Just emphasizing a point about "polls". ;0)
bcnu,
Mikem
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt."
-Bertrand Russell
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