They've already said their first job after Hussein goes
is getting rid of the US. They remember George Bush Sr., and not fondly.
Predicting that the Shia in the south are going to turn on the coalition in a big way is not really very prescient of me; there are many places where one can find many many Iraqi Shia saying exactly that, if one but looks. From some of the stuff I've seen (recent docs, mostly) one gets the impression that they're looking forward to it.
This goes back to my very first prediction... a reasonably early US pullout, as it becomes clear that the place has become flat-out ungovernable, with the three main ethnic groups squabbling over the shattered remnants while the neighbours come in to pick over the valuable pieces.
Just saw a half hour doc on CBC about the Kurds in N. Iraq. Look up an American named Galbraith, who worked for State in the eighties. He authored a bill about the Kurds after a visit there, where he visited many of the gassed villages. It passed the Senate in <24 hours; according to the doc, the fastest passage of a bill in Senate history. It died in Congress after Reagan let it be known that it would be vetoed. The people in State didn't want to see the bill happen, as they were concerned that it would harm US economic interests. Take a look at the people in power in State at the time. Lots of familiar names there.
After the war he visited again, just in time to flee over the border into Syria as Hussein used helicopter gunships to kill Kurds fleeing over the border into Syria and Turkey. He had a camera with him on both trips, and had it on as he ran with a group of some dozens of others over the border into Syria while artillery shells were falling around them. Powerful stuff.
Look it up.
It helps understand why the "natural allies" of the US in Iraq are not being so friendly when you see who the players were. Not a lot of trust for the US. One of the leaders of the independent Kurdish controlled areas came this close to using the word treachery on camera, but restrained himself with the expression "it's important to remain diplomatic... let's say double standard."
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