Glad you asked, whats next
The unintended consequences might be unintended to Bush et al but not to me. The entire area from suez east to India South to aden north to russia excluding persia is a group of loosely related highly self identified ethnic semites. (include Jews in the group) The major 3 co-hesive pieces are religion (Shia Sunni the 2 major muslim pieces) Jewish and a small christian group. The major social groups are baath-ist (syria and Iraq) PUK (Kurd) and Fatah(palestinian). The major hardline religious folks are the wahibi and the Iranian Revolutionary council and Mahounds boys. The invasion of Iraq will start a blood letting against the baath which should spill into Syria. The Iranians as well as Turkey will be Jockeying for position over Kurdistan The entire area ( hopefully) will end up a loosly confederated group of citystates with a very weak central government propped up by the UN. This in turn will be eyed by the denziens of the gulf states which will either break the stranglehold of the wahibi's and the people will do it for them. The Israelis and the Palestinians will both see an oportunity to make hay while the sun shines, I expect that both will expand their borders and consolidate against Syria at the expense of both lebanon and Jordan. Remeber, the only group of people in that area that is hated as much as the Jews is the Palestinians. Both can and have seized the moment in the past. I see the Arab league in such disaray that peace in Israel can be accomplished. The only reason Arafat could not accept the deal at camp david was because it would have been a death sentence for him and everyone involved. Total breakdown of the Arab states is the only way for the Palestinians and the Jews to settle their differences without outside preasures and threats. It could well fail but I think (as usual) chaos is a good thing in human relations. The persians if they play their card right could get mecca which has been their goal all along. I trust the Persian people against their mullahs, I could be wrong there. All in all a better place.
thanx,
bill
