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New Okay... now... who said the ECONOMY...
is on a DOWN turn still...

[link|http://www.canada.com/news/story.asp?id=%7B2184538A-7784-43B7-BB96-67473AE06C38%7D|Q3 productivity growth and factory orders up]

There take that!!

[link|mailto:curley95@attbi.com|greg] - Grand-Master Artist in IT
[link|http://www.iwethey.org/ed_curry/|REMEMBER ED CURRY!!!]

Your friendly Geheime Staatspolizei reminds:
Use your computer, we'll sample your DNA and imprint your eyes.

SELECT * FROM politicians WHERE iq > 40 OR WHERE ego < 1048575;
0 rows found
New Shhh....
...don't introduce reality ;-)
You were born...and so you're free...so Happy Birthday! Laurie Anderson

[link|mailto:bepatient@aol.com|BePatient]
New EOY budget spending
will work for cash and other incentives [link|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html|skill set]


Opera was the television of the nineteenth century:loud, vulgar and garish with plots that could only be called infantile. "Pendergast"
New I doubt it, those number are to big for that.

[link|mailto:curley95@attbi.com|greg] - Grand-Master Artist in IT
[link|http://www.iwethey.org/ed_curry/|REMEMBER ED CURRY!!!]

Your friendly Geheime Staatspolizei reminds:
Use your computer, we'll sample your DNA and imprint your eyes.

SELECT * FROM politicians WHERE iq > 40 OR WHERE ego < 1048575;
0 rows found
New It looks promising.
Hourly compensation in the third quarter rose at a brisk 4.9 per cent rate, compared with a 3.9 per cent pace in the second quarter. It was the biggest pay increase since the third quarter of 2000, suggesting that people who have jobs are making gains.
Hmmmmm, a rather interesting way of phrasing that.

I'm still more interested in whether the lower 50% of the population's wealth goes up or down.
New why pay goes up
"It was the biggest pay increase since the third quarter of 2000, suggesting that people who have jobs are making gains."

It is because companies found out they can use the Fear Factor to scare more work out of fewer employees, but also help them a bit financially for fear of losing the only person left who knows how to run the department (since the rest are already canned).

________________
oop.ismad.com
New I did
I would love to be proved wrong, but until I start to see some inflation out there, I am going to feel nervous.

Cheers,
Ben
"Career politicians are inherently untrustworthy; if it spends its life buzzing around the outhouse, it\ufffds probably a fly."
- [link|http://www.nationalinterest.org/issues/58/Mead.html|Walter Mead]
New you will not see inflation any time soon
deflation perhaps as we are teetering in that direction. Unemployment is just right, inventories are not that low considering we are in a just in time manufacturing base and oil has not climbed excessively. Vehicle sales are down, housing stable and bankrupcies are up. Tax relief is throwing deficits which "might" crank inflation up a tad but I see a flat picture right now. The only thing I have not checked is the goat index.
thanx,
bill
will work for cash and other incentives [link|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html|skill set]


Opera was the television of the nineteenth century:loud, vulgar and garish with plots that could only be called infantile. "Pendergast"
New The question that I have then...
Mow much of spending is being caused by eased credit?

If so, what happens when we stop being able to ease credit, and people start facing paying some of it back? (Particularly some of the debt which didn't shrink from inflation as fast as people were hoping.)

There might be a way out by going forward - we certainly have gone much farther than I believed possible - but there are still significant risks ahead.

Cheers,
Ben
"Career politicians are inherently untrustworthy; if it spends its life buzzing around the outhouse, it\ufffds probably a fly."
- [link|http://www.nationalinterest.org/issues/58/Mead.html|Walter Mead]
New Much like Japan is now
debt fakery and bad loans are a huge part of the economic foundation about 6* the savings and loan debacle if not larger. With the current occupants of the Whitehouse I see taxpayer bailout, increased money supply and 70's inflation in 10 years or so.
thanx,
bill
will work for cash and other incentives [link|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html|skill set]


Opera was the television of the nineteenth century:loud, vulgar and garish with plots that could only be called infantile. "Pendergast"
New One catch
The main driver that they can use to manipulate the money supply stops working when the interest rate gets to 0%. It is at 1.5% now.

Cheers,
Ben
"Career politicians are inherently untrustworthy; if it spends its life buzzing around the outhouse, it\ufffds probably a fly."
- [link|http://www.nationalinterest.org/issues/58/Mead.html|Walter Mead]
New Yeah that &#% Clinton and his
Evull Budget Surpluses!

No danger of that coming back soon.. Now what was that line about Less Government / Reduced Government Spending / Keep the Government outta Your Bedroom / Personal Papers / Gun rack..?











oh wait -
It's for National Security and prevention of incoming ICBMs. In a few selected spots, commute distance of DC.
And Empire. That's OK then.
New Must you bring up the "Bad Old Days"?
When we all had to worry about sex in the Oval Office, even going so far as to spend millions and years of investigation only to find out that there was no swallowing? Geez, what are you? Some kind of masochist?
New what surpluses? Never happened
will work for cash and other incentives [link|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html|skill set]


Opera was the television of the nineteenth century:loud, vulgar and garish with plots that could only be called infantile. "Pendergast"
New 1998 and 1999, for example.
1998 and 1999 were back-to-back Fed surpluses, first time since 1956-1957.
New Just because you can
make the payments on your debts doesn't mean you have 'surplus' money.

There was no 'surplus'.

Imric's Tips for Living
  • Paranoia Is a Survival Trait
  • Pessimists are never disappointed - but sometimes, if they are very lucky, they can be pleasantly surprised...
  • Even though everyone is out to get you, it doesn't matter unless you let them win.
New nope, ya forgot the payroll tax
will work for cash and other incentives [link|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html|skill set]


Opera was the television of the nineteenth century:loud, vulgar and garish with plots that could only be called infantile. "Pendergast"
New Not if you counted social security
And the balancing of the rest of the budget was helped by the economy. Much as I dislike the moron, Shrub is not really at fault in the budgetary crunch. Like Clinton said to his dad, "It's the economy, stupid."

Cheers,
Ben
"Career politicians are inherently untrustworthy; if it spends its life buzzing around the outhouse, it\ufffds probably a fly."
- [link|http://www.nationalinterest.org/issues/58/Mead.html|Walter Mead]
New I'll disagree.
Much as I dislike the moron, Shrub is not really at fault in the budgetary crunch.
So, we have a poor economy and Bush is increasing spending.

That sounds like his fault to me.

Wouldn't a BETTER approach be to REDUCE government spending?
New Not from a Keynesian perspective
Wouldn't a BETTER approach be to REDUCE government spending?


If one were of the notion of using deficit spending as an economic stimulus, it is exactly during times of recession that you want to go in the red. Of course, one can argue the kinds of stimuli that Bush is using (tax cuts for the wealthy, military, etc...) are the wrong way to approach to priming the economic pump. But that does not mean that governments should not increase deficit spending during the bust of the cycle.
New Good point.
New No
It was Clinton's fault for spending money he didn't have when he didn't need to spend it.

But in a poor economy, the government is SUPPOSED to up its spending (part of why it shouldn't overspend when the economy is fine), and many of the increases will happen for reasons that are out of the control of the administration of the moment. (People lose jobs, and then land in the government support networks. That takes a lot of government money.)

Cheers,
Ben
"Career politicians are inherently untrustworthy; if it spends its life buzzing around the outhouse, it\ufffds probably a fly."
- [link|http://www.nationalinterest.org/issues/58/Mead.html|Walter Mead]
New Do deficits really matter when there is no chance that ...
the debt will ever be repaid? Isn't the trick to just make everyone believe that someday, somehow, somewhere they'll actually get back what they lent us?
New in sheer dollars its huge, as a % of GNP
it is in acceptable limits.
thamx,
bill
will work for cash and other incentives [link|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html|skill set]


Opera was the television of the nineteenth century:loud, vulgar and garish with plots that could only be called infantile. "Pendergast"
New Yes
Remember, each individual person doesn't care about whether the whole debt gets paid. Just so long as their bond does.

Cheers,
Ben
"Career politicians are inherently untrustworthy; if it spends its life buzzing around the outhouse, it\ufffds probably a fly."
- [link|http://www.nationalinterest.org/issues/58/Mead.html|Walter Mead]
New Leverage
More to box's point....its not the debt that matters...a certain debt level is actually >good< to carry...its the economy's ability to sustain that level of debt.

In that light..our debt is "within acceptable limits". It may be high in sheer dollar terms...and even high in terms of overall leverage...but we maintain the ability to service that debt.

And our credit is still decent...thus we can continue to cycle debt.

If we hit triple c in the world credit market...we're in trouble.
You were born...and so you're free...so Happy Birthday! Laurie Anderson

[link|mailto:bepatient@aol.com|BePatient]
New Nah, that's what the nukes are for.
New Novel approach to calculating a D/E ratio, I suppose.
You were born...and so you're free...so Happy Birthday! Laurie Anderson

[link|mailto:bepatient@aol.com|BePatient]
New But note...
If we hit triple-C in the world credit market, then the whole world would be in trouble, not just us.

There are a lot of people with a large vested interest in keeping the current status quo working...

Cheers,
Ben
"Career politicians are inherently untrustworthy; if it spends its life buzzing around the outhouse, it\ufffds probably a fly."
- [link|http://www.nationalinterest.org/issues/58/Mead.html|Walter Mead]
New Yes. We have quite the pyramid scheme going, don't we?
New Think you may need to revisit some definitions.
and maybe your public and corporate finance texts.

Debt is by design.
You were born...and so you're free...so Happy Birthday! Laurie Anderson

[link|mailto:bepatient@aol.com|BePatient]
New Happily I majored in Mathematics.
Pure mathematics, that is. If it smelled liked an application (and I do mean smelled) I avoided it like the plague.

Hence, I did not have "corporate finance" books in my curriculum. I'm just a poor old dumb North Carolina boy who was taught that a "debt" was something that you eventually paid back. Or else you declared bankruptcy, which is akin to conceding that you failed. ;-)
New Well it is!
But when you have lots of collateral...you can take out alot...and you can stagger it so as to have alot out all the time. And when you're a business there are people who calculate the "correct" amount of debt for you to carry.

Methinks you know these things already ;-)
You were born...and so you're free...so Happy Birthday! Laurie Anderson

[link|mailto:bepatient@aol.com|BePatient]
New Moff, you have your eyes in a blender
New But I got a check for $375!
Or something like that. The Gov told me it was money they took but didn't really need. So it must be true.
I am out of the country for the duration of the Bush administration.
Please leave a message and I'll get back to you when democracy returns.
New Who?
The people out of a job perhaps? [link|http://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/06/business/06CND-JOBS.html|Unemployment up to 6%].

NYTimes, iwethey/iwethey.
Why should we ask our military to die for cheap oil when the rest of us aren't even being asked to get better mileage?
-[link|http://www.workingforchange.com/article.cfm?itemid=14107|Molly Ivins]
New By the way...
iwethey/iwethey on NYT is now a woman born on May 23rd, 1901, living in the 55555 zip code.

Was forced to enter that information, very strange...
"...the middle of fighting a war against religious extremism is not the time to do something offensive to God." - Some idiot.
New Re: "very strange"
I know you are, but what am I?


<grin>
Why should we ask our military to die for cheap oil when the rest of us aren't even being asked to get better mileage?
-[link|http://www.workingforchange.com/article.cfm?itemid=14107|Molly Ivins]
     Okay... now... who said the ECONOMY... - (folkert) - (37)
         Shhh.... - (bepatient) - (2)
             EOY budget spending -NT - (boxley) - (1)
                 I doubt it, those number are to big for that. -NT - (folkert)
         It looks promising. - (Brandioch) - (1)
             why pay goes up - (tablizer)
         I did - (ben_tilly) - (4)
             you will not see inflation any time soon - (boxley) - (3)
                 The question that I have then... - (ben_tilly) - (2)
                     Much like Japan is now - (boxley) - (1)
                         One catch - (ben_tilly)
         Yeah that &#% Clinton and his - (Ashton) - (23)
             Must you bring up the "Bad Old Days"? - (mmoffitt)
             what surpluses? Never happened -NT - (boxley) - (21)
                 1998 and 1999, for example. - (mmoffitt) - (19)
                     Just because you can - (imric)
                     nope, ya forgot the payroll tax -NT - (boxley)
                     Not if you counted social security - (ben_tilly) - (15)
                         I'll disagree. - (Brandioch) - (3)
                             Not from a Keynesian perspective - (ChrisR) - (1)
                                 Good point. -NT - (Brandioch)
                             No - (ben_tilly)
                         Do deficits really matter when there is no chance that ... - (mmoffitt) - (10)
                             in sheer dollars its huge, as a % of GNP - (boxley)
                             Yes - (ben_tilly) - (8)
                                 Leverage - (bepatient) - (7)
                                     Nah, that's what the nukes are for. -NT - (mmoffitt) - (1)
                                         Novel approach to calculating a D/E ratio, I suppose. -NT - (bepatient)
                                     But note... - (ben_tilly) - (4)
                                         Yes. We have quite the pyramid scheme going, don't we? -NT - (mmoffitt) - (3)
                                             Think you may need to revisit some definitions. - (bepatient) - (2)
                                                 Happily I majored in Mathematics. - (mmoffitt) - (1)
                                                     Well it is! - (bepatient)
                     Moff, you have your eyes in a blender -NT - (wharris2)
                 But I got a check for $375! - (tuberculosis)
         Who? - (Silverlock) - (2)
             By the way... - (inthane-chan) - (1)
                 Re: "very strange" - (Silverlock)

Worst case, tell your boss it's a new kind of ultra-XML -- not quite invisible, but only very sophisticated and intelligent people can see it...
324 ms