Post #66,651
12/4/02 12:37:54 PM
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Okay... now... who said the ECONOMY...
is on a DOWN turn still...
[link|http://www.canada.com/news/story.asp?id=%7B2184538A-7784-43B7-BB96-67473AE06C38%7D|Q3 productivity growth and factory orders up]
There take that!!
[link|mailto:curley95@attbi.com|greg] - Grand-Master Artist in IT
[link|http://www.iwethey.org/ed_curry/|REMEMBER ED CURRY!!!]
Your friendly Geheime Staatspolizei reminds:
Use your computer, we'll sample your DNA and imprint your eyes.
SELECT * FROM politicians WHERE iq > 40 OR WHERE ego < 1048575;
0 rows found
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Post #66,682
12/4/02 2:18:33 PM
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Shhh....
...don't introduce reality ;-)
You were born...and so you're free...so Happy Birthday! Laurie Anderson
[link|mailto:bepatient@aol.com|BePatient]
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Post #66,689
12/4/02 2:41:28 PM
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EOY budget spending
will work for cash and other incentives [link|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html|skill set]
Opera was the television of the nineteenth century:loud, vulgar and garish with plots that could only be called infantile. "Pendergast"
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Post #66,714
12/4/02 4:27:17 PM
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I doubt it, those number are to big for that.
[link|mailto:curley95@attbi.com|greg] - Grand-Master Artist in IT
[link|http://www.iwethey.org/ed_curry/|REMEMBER ED CURRY!!!]
Your friendly Geheime Staatspolizei reminds:
Use your computer, we'll sample your DNA and imprint your eyes.
SELECT * FROM politicians WHERE iq > 40 OR WHERE ego < 1048575;
0 rows found
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Post #66,721
12/4/02 4:43:01 PM
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It looks promising.
Hourly compensation in the third quarter rose at a brisk 4.9 per cent rate, compared with a 3.9 per cent pace in the second quarter. It was the biggest pay increase since the third quarter of 2000, suggesting that people who have jobs are making gains. Hmmmmm, a rather interesting way of phrasing that. I'm still more interested in whether the lower 50% of the population's wealth goes up or down.
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Post #67,721
12/9/02 11:59:53 PM
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why pay goes up
"It was the biggest pay increase since the third quarter of 2000, suggesting that people who have jobs are making gains."
It is because companies found out they can use the Fear Factor to scare more work out of fewer employees, but also help them a bit financially for fear of losing the only person left who knows how to run the department (since the rest are already canned).
________________
oop.ismad.com
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Post #66,820
12/5/02 12:17:51 AM
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I did
I would love to be proved wrong, but until I start to see some inflation out there, I am going to feel nervous.
Cheers,
Ben
"Career politicians are inherently untrustworthy; if it spends its life buzzing around the outhouse, it\ufffds probably a fly."
- [link|http://www.nationalinterest.org/issues/58/Mead.html|Walter Mead]
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Post #66,821
12/5/02 12:37:04 AM
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you will not see inflation any time soon
deflation perhaps as we are teetering in that direction. Unemployment is just right, inventories are not that low considering we are in a just in time manufacturing base and oil has not climbed excessively. Vehicle sales are down, housing stable and bankrupcies are up. Tax relief is throwing deficits which "might" crank inflation up a tad but I see a flat picture right now. The only thing I have not checked is the goat index.
thanx,
bill
will work for cash and other incentives [link|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html|skill set]
Opera was the television of the nineteenth century:loud, vulgar and garish with plots that could only be called infantile. "Pendergast"
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Post #66,823
12/5/02 12:44:50 AM
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The question that I have then...
Mow much of spending is being caused by eased credit?
If so, what happens when we stop being able to ease credit, and people start facing paying some of it back? (Particularly some of the debt which didn't shrink from inflation as fast as people were hoping.)
There might be a way out by going forward - we certainly have gone much farther than I believed possible - but there are still significant risks ahead.
Cheers,
Ben
"Career politicians are inherently untrustworthy; if it spends its life buzzing around the outhouse, it\ufffds probably a fly."
- [link|http://www.nationalinterest.org/issues/58/Mead.html|Walter Mead]
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Post #66,837
12/5/02 8:28:32 AM
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Much like Japan is now
debt fakery and bad loans are a huge part of the economic foundation about 6* the savings and loan debacle if not larger. With the current occupants of the Whitehouse I see taxpayer bailout, increased money supply and 70's inflation in 10 years or so.
thanx,
bill
will work for cash and other incentives [link|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html|skill set]
Opera was the television of the nineteenth century:loud, vulgar and garish with plots that could only be called infantile. "Pendergast"
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Post #66,977
12/5/02 6:16:14 PM
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One catch
The main driver that they can use to manipulate the money supply stops working when the interest rate gets to 0%. It is at 1.5% now.
Cheers,
Ben
"Career politicians are inherently untrustworthy; if it spends its life buzzing around the outhouse, it\ufffds probably a fly."
- [link|http://www.nationalinterest.org/issues/58/Mead.html|Walter Mead]
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Post #66,830
12/5/02 4:12:21 AM
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Yeah that &#% Clinton and his
Evull Budget Surpluses!
No danger of that coming back soon.. Now what was that line about Less Government / Reduced Government Spending / Keep the Government outta Your Bedroom / Personal Papers / Gun rack..?
oh wait -
It's for National Security and prevention of incoming ICBMs. In a few selected spots, commute distance of DC.
And Empire. That's OK then.
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Post #66,952
12/5/02 4:18:33 PM
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Must you bring up the "Bad Old Days"?
When we all had to worry about sex in the Oval Office, even going so far as to spend millions and years of investigation only to find out that there was no swallowing? Geez, what are you? Some kind of masochist?
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Post #66,954
12/5/02 4:19:52 PM
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what surpluses? Never happened
will work for cash and other incentives [link|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html|skill set]
Opera was the television of the nineteenth century:loud, vulgar and garish with plots that could only be called infantile. "Pendergast"
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Post #66,955
12/5/02 4:23:07 PM
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1998 and 1999, for example.
1998 and 1999 were back-to-back Fed surpluses, first time since 1956-1957.
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Post #66,957
12/5/02 4:26:42 PM
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Just because you can
make the payments on your debts doesn't mean you have 'surplus' money.
There was no 'surplus'.
Imric's Tips for Living- Paranoia Is a Survival Trait
- Pessimists are never disappointed - but sometimes, if they are very lucky, they can be pleasantly surprised...
- Even though everyone is out to get you, it doesn't matter unless you let them win.
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Post #66,966
12/5/02 5:12:32 PM
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nope, ya forgot the payroll tax
will work for cash and other incentives [link|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html|skill set]
Opera was the television of the nineteenth century:loud, vulgar and garish with plots that could only be called infantile. "Pendergast"
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Post #66,976
12/5/02 6:13:31 PM
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Not if you counted social security
And the balancing of the rest of the budget was helped by the economy. Much as I dislike the moron, Shrub is not really at fault in the budgetary crunch. Like Clinton said to his dad, "It's the economy, stupid."
Cheers,
Ben
"Career politicians are inherently untrustworthy; if it spends its life buzzing around the outhouse, it\ufffds probably a fly."
- [link|http://www.nationalinterest.org/issues/58/Mead.html|Walter Mead]
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Post #67,148
12/6/02 1:47:56 PM
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I'll disagree.
Much as I dislike the moron, Shrub is not really at fault in the budgetary crunch. So, we have a poor economy and Bush is increasing spending. That sounds like his fault to me. Wouldn't a BETTER approach be to REDUCE government spending?
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Post #67,160
12/6/02 2:45:59 PM
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Not from a Keynesian perspective
Wouldn't a BETTER approach be to REDUCE government spending? If one were of the notion of using deficit spending as an economic stimulus, it is exactly during times of recession that you want to go in the red. Of course, one can argue the kinds of stimuli that Bush is using (tax cuts for the wealthy, military, etc...) are the wrong way to approach to priming the economic pump. But that does not mean that governments should not increase deficit spending during the bust of the cycle.
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Post #67,161
12/6/02 2:49:03 PM
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Good point.
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Post #67,284
12/7/02 9:13:56 AM
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No
It was Clinton's fault for spending money he didn't have when he didn't need to spend it.
But in a poor economy, the government is SUPPOSED to up its spending (part of why it shouldn't overspend when the economy is fine), and many of the increases will happen for reasons that are out of the control of the administration of the moment. (People lose jobs, and then land in the government support networks. That takes a lot of government money.)
Cheers,
Ben
"Career politicians are inherently untrustworthy; if it spends its life buzzing around the outhouse, it\ufffds probably a fly."
- [link|http://www.nationalinterest.org/issues/58/Mead.html|Walter Mead]
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Post #67,501
12/9/02 10:52:12 AM
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Do deficits really matter when there is no chance that ...
the debt will ever be repaid? Isn't the trick to just make everyone believe that someday, somehow, somewhere they'll actually get back what they lent us?
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Post #67,505
12/9/02 11:05:49 AM
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in sheer dollars its huge, as a % of GNP
it is in acceptable limits.
thamx,
bill
will work for cash and other incentives [link|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html|skill set]
Opera was the television of the nineteenth century:loud, vulgar and garish with plots that could only be called infantile. "Pendergast"
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Post #67,517
12/9/02 11:16:15 AM
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Yes
Remember, each individual person doesn't care about whether the whole debt gets paid. Just so long as their bond does.
Cheers,
Ben
"Career politicians are inherently untrustworthy; if it spends its life buzzing around the outhouse, it\ufffds probably a fly."
- [link|http://www.nationalinterest.org/issues/58/Mead.html|Walter Mead]
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Post #67,532
12/9/02 11:39:48 AM
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Leverage
More to box's point....its not the debt that matters...a certain debt level is actually >good< to carry...its the economy's ability to sustain that level of debt.
In that light..our debt is "within acceptable limits". It may be high in sheer dollar terms...and even high in terms of overall leverage...but we maintain the ability to service that debt.
And our credit is still decent...thus we can continue to cycle debt.
If we hit triple c in the world credit market...we're in trouble.
You were born...and so you're free...so Happy Birthday! Laurie Anderson
[link|mailto:bepatient@aol.com|BePatient]
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Post #67,578
12/9/02 1:48:55 PM
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Nah, that's what the nukes are for.
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Post #67,591
12/9/02 2:30:22 PM
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Novel approach to calculating a D/E ratio, I suppose.
You were born...and so you're free...so Happy Birthday! Laurie Anderson
[link|mailto:bepatient@aol.com|BePatient]
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Post #67,609
12/9/02 3:27:36 PM
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But note...
If we hit triple-C in the world credit market, then the whole world would be in trouble, not just us.
There are a lot of people with a large vested interest in keeping the current status quo working...
Cheers,
Ben
"Career politicians are inherently untrustworthy; if it spends its life buzzing around the outhouse, it\ufffds probably a fly."
- [link|http://www.nationalinterest.org/issues/58/Mead.html|Walter Mead]
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Post #67,655
12/9/02 6:48:29 PM
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Yes. We have quite the pyramid scheme going, don't we?
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Post #67,690
12/9/02 9:34:26 PM
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Think you may need to revisit some definitions.
and maybe your public and corporate finance texts.
Debt is by design.
You were born...and so you're free...so Happy Birthday! Laurie Anderson
[link|mailto:bepatient@aol.com|BePatient]
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Post #67,718
12/9/02 11:49:05 PM
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Happily I majored in Mathematics.
Pure mathematics, that is. If it smelled liked an application (and I do mean smelled) I avoided it like the plague.
Hence, I did not have "corporate finance" books in my curriculum. I'm just a poor old dumb North Carolina boy who was taught that a "debt" was something that you eventually paid back. Or else you declared bankruptcy, which is akin to conceding that you failed. ;-)
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Post #67,759
12/10/02 6:39:33 AM
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Well it is!
But when you have lots of collateral...you can take out alot...and you can stagger it so as to have alot out all the time. And when you're a business there are people who calculate the "correct" amount of debt for you to carry.
Methinks you know these things already ;-)
You were born...and so you're free...so Happy Birthday! Laurie Anderson
[link|mailto:bepatient@aol.com|BePatient]
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Post #67,132
12/6/02 11:20:49 AM
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Moff, you have your eyes in a blender
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Post #67,122
12/6/02 11:10:00 AM
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But I got a check for $375!
Or something like that. The Gov told me it was money they took but didn't really need. So it must be true.
I am out of the country for the duration of the Bush administration.
Please leave a message and I'll get back to you when democracy returns.
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Post #67,156
12/6/02 2:08:18 PM
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Who?
The people out of a job perhaps? [link|http://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/06/business/06CND-JOBS.html|Unemployment up to 6%].
NYTimes, iwethey/iwethey.
Why should we ask our military to die for cheap oil when the rest of us aren't even being asked to get better mileage?
-[link|http://www.workingforchange.com/article.cfm?itemid=14107|Molly Ivins]
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Post #67,157
12/6/02 2:29:48 PM
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By the way...
iwethey/iwethey on NYT is now a woman born on May 23rd, 1901, living in the 55555 zip code.
Was forced to enter that information, very strange...
"...the middle of fighting a war against religious extremism is not the time to do something offensive to God." - Some idiot.
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Post #67,158
12/6/02 2:34:04 PM
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Re: "very strange"
I know you are, but what am I?
<grin>
Why should we ask our military to die for cheap oil when the rest of us aren't even being asked to get better mileage?
-[link|http://www.workingforchange.com/article.cfm?itemid=14107|Molly Ivins]
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