Re: Not that I ever read anywhere ...

Post #56,578 by dmarker2 10/13/02 10:31:26 PM 10/14/02 6:14:11 AM Reply	Re: Not that I ever read anywhere ... In questioning the group responsible for this attack, I believe it fair game to consider some covert ops 'group' could be considered responsible for these reasons ... 1) The nature of this attack - not typical Al Qaeda by any measure 2) The incredible political timing of the attack in regard to Australian Iraq politics in support of Bush 3) The fact that this attack will harm Indonesia a lot more than Australia - Indonesia had been disputing the US ambassador in regard to his pressure than Indonesia harboured terrorist elements. The Indonesians kept saying that there was no credible Al Qaeda threat within the country - now the Indonesians are on the back foot. 4) The economic harm to Indonesia and Bali in the short to medium term will be devestating. It may even prove crippling if the world perceives that the 'terror' threat hasn't gone away. But again the point I 1st made (and is still there) was that it could either be Muslims from Java or some covert op people intent on redirecting public opinion. If it were Muslims from Java I doubt it was an approved Al Qaeda attack. I think people are beginning to forget what Al Qaeda is/was about. It is clear that the target was more than just Aussies as there were Brits , Kiwis, Chinese etc: etc: that were killed there. Bill, you usually offer good insights when you think, can you give an analysis of how this attack could hurt Australia. Being from Australia and knowing this region well, I just can't come up with any rationale as to how this attack hurts Australia politically or financially. This bombing has achieved quite a bit but mostly in the opposite direction to what many people perceive. The only real losers are Indonesia, the Balinese & the poor tourists caught up in the middle. The Muslims in Indonesia look like losing from this as well as will ay group than can be labelled as Muslim extremists. Australia loses nothing politically & financially apart from the citizens & wearing the agony of the losses. I will leave it to the reader to consider who might gain greatly or greatest, from this incident. Had this attack occured in Australia, I might have quite a different view - embroiling Indonesia in the terror just does not gain these groups one iota of benefit. Cheers Doug #added point 4 & expanded last para Edited by dmarker2 Oct. 14, 2002, 06:02:56 AM EDT Edited by dmarker2 Oct. 14, 2002, 06:14:11 AM EDT Expand All History
Post #56,647 by inthane-chan 10/14/02 11:53:07 AM Reply	On covert ops in general. I used to think that stuff like that Just Didn't Happen. And if it did, it would come out in the public, 'cause you just can't keep a secret. In my last stint at Microsoft, my roommate was an ex-special forces guy from the Gulf War. He always had this far-off look, like he was remembering something that caused him a lot of pain, and he would sometimes start crying for no obvious reason. When Sept 11 happened, he really started freaking out, and made some cryptic comments about some kind of covert action he was in during the Gulf War - and even dropped some hints it was U.S. on Allies attack to justify certain actions that were taken. When his emotions calmed down, he clammed up, and refused to talk any more about it. I didn't push either... End of world rescheduled for day after tomorrow. Something should probably be done. Please advise.
Post #56,653 by Andrew Grygus 10/14/02 12:23:46 PM Reply	Risk / benefit Personally, I don't think this bombing would pass a risk / benefit analysis for a covert operation. Of course, such things have been done, and not just by the U.S.. The British government had the hold of the Lusitania (an armed and armored cruiser disguised as a passenger ship) filled with munitions, had all American passengers transfered to that ship, used political pressure to hold up publication of a full page warning by the German Government, and ordered the captain of the Lusitania to change course to pass directly in front of a known Uboat to be torpedoed, with great loss of American lives. Evidence of the course change messages was erased (except at one relay station that erased the message text but left recorded the times, dates and Lusitania destination). The captain was put on trial for neglegence, but the judge eventually realized it was a fix and acquited him. That judge was banished from the bench by the British Crown. The British government, presented with the evidence, officially admitted most details of the operation back in the '70s. [link\|http://www.aaxnet.com\|AAx]
Post #56,767 by mhuber 10/14/02 7:07:34 PM Reply	Risk / benefit analysis assumes intelligent direction The fact that it doesn't make sense rules out neither Al-Quaida nor, umm, that one guy in the funny shaped room. ---- Whatever
Post #56,781 by Ashton 10/14/02 8:27:36 PM Reply	Simple, intelligent aim: sow chaos. It worked. Works.

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