Scott - catch NPR discussion Mon re Russia version?

Post #5,333 by Ashton 8/15/01 6:54:21 PM Reply	Scott - catch NPR discussion Mon re Russia version? Caught after ~ 10 min. At Commonwealth Club, IIRC. Blair and Swig only names caught. Couple of PhD boffins, much experience in and about USSR, Russia over the years - addressing this issue and describing the deteriorating trust between US / them, especially re ABM, NATO plans - events since the USSR disintegration. Good side: Comments on - Kurchatov Institute scientists finding the bug in the M$ dbase for nuke tracking: they finally did find what was broke and told Los Alamos et al. The weapons experts, this small group on both sides - appear to retain a high level of trust. So far. Worse sides: The general economic chaos and lessening security, control of the large former USSR arsenal, make it impossible for Russia to raise and equip a conventional army to match that of NATO forces. Must rely upon nukes for the foreseeable, for perfectly clear economic reasons. Critique of the failures of the Clinton admin to treat Russia with any comprehension, to see their POV -- offering only unilateral proven unhelpful opinions.. 'Disdainful' comes to mind as the attitude the speakers were conveying. As result - West is no longer given benefit of doubt in the NATO and other machinations, no longer presumed to be 'benign' in its strategies towards Russia. That honeymoon is over (and IMhO we utterly failed the opportunities to make a few $Billion assists - events as might later cost us $Trillions - as the ill will, alienation continues) Horrifying details of the decreasing experience, competence, pay! + alcoholism of - actual missile command structures: TODAY, not last year. Overall theme: we MUST near-immediately reduce the response-time of ALL SIDES from the current 2-3 MINUTES... to days or hopefully much longer OR: these two are scared and believe we OUGHT ALL to be. (Nor is this info startlingly new either - we have a massive capacity to overlook as long as possible). (Head of the Chelyabinsk nuke lab committed suicide fairly recently - over the deterioration he was witnessing, was responsible to control - could see no way to do so..) The impending NATO schemes, perhaps including the 3 Baltics, etc.. most of the rhetoric since '92 has been at least subtly hostile to Russia's interests, actual problems - and its natural desire not to be relegated to YAN US-dominated and impotent.. state. (My summary of their POV). I conclude that, more sabre rattling and stupidities like the latest ABM Reaganesque plan -- may just see the thousand-missile launch finally occur: and they Can launch 100s within MINUTES .. As can we. Still today. MAD remains our operating plan. M.A.D. - what an epitaph for homo-sap. Seems to me that if the jingoists insouciantly push forward, taking advantage of the Cheney US presidency, utterly ignoring the plight of Russia + the attitude we shall evoke from China and the rest of world - Dr. Strangelove Redux is no longer unthinkable -- it may even be most probable scenario, via any sane risk analysis (?) Seems to be now: WORLD security or NONE for any particular nation. ABM now looms as a large threat to security of ALL, no matter our fantasies of 'Our Security': screw you all. 50/50? 30/70? place bets. It damn sure is not 90/10 (sanity/idiocy ratio) A. Dumbth. Don't go abroad without it.
Post #5,334 by Another Scott 8/15/01 7:01:53 PM Reply	Nope, I missed it. Sounds thoroughly depressing, like much of the news these days. :-( I briefly looked at npr.org but the only thing that showed in a search for "Russia" on 8/13/01 was an ATC segment. Was it a national broadcast? Do you recall the name of the show? Thanks. Cheers, Scott.
Post #5,341 by Ashton 8/15/01 8:10:40 PM Reply	Found it: [link\|http://www.kqed.org/radio/presentations/index.html#cityarts\|KQED-FM listing] Monday, August 13, 2001: Russia: Facing the Future \ufffd Moderator: Michael Nacht, Goldman School of Public Policy; Speakers: Judyth Twigg, Virginia Commonwealth University; Bruce Blair, President, Center for Defense Information. World Affairs Council - I confused with Commonwealth Club - because of ref. I didn't check yet to see if .pdf is available - can get audio tapes of most, though. Also I know CDI. IMO one of the more competent groups in DC. Visited them, support them with $ every year. Believe they have no political axes - just intelligence about military and related issues. (Center for Defense Information) Yup. Bad. Worse because.. nothing hyperbolic in this presentation; their experience extends to time in USSR in the old days. Blair mentioned how strained are many of his personal relationships there, today. I also have a couple friends from the LBL days, peripherally involved in above, over the years. They are quite unhappy at the recklessness and (didn't quite say 'blind stupidity') of ABM, NATO rhetoric -- and our foolish ineptness at critical junctures since the Wall came down. I remember thinking at that time (really!): "..now if we will just offer some mini-Marshall plan so that this humongous conversion process can have sound foundation -- we'll save Trillions and suffering, end McCarthyism forever and... and this madness will actually terminate!" Silly me. (We seemed to love Gorby and count on his manufacturing a mini-US just for us - never mind how much he pissed off his own folks.) We have no empathy or in this case - gratitude for a real break! Just self-congratulatory hubris + "what's the $ cost?" :[ Ashton
Post #5,411 by wharris2 8/16/01 10:32:01 AM Reply	Question: how do they propose to do this? Overall theme: we MUST near-immediately reduce the response-time of ALL SIDES from the current 2-3 MINUTES... to days or hopefully much longer Oh, sure, that sounds peachy-keen. Um, but there is one other country in the equation (and, presumably, as China buiilds up its arsenal there will be two, and possibly these "rogue states" that may or may not be building ICBMs.) How in heck do they propose to persuade them? Other than relying upon Russia's and China's good will? *har har har har* French Zombies are zapping me with lasers!
Post #5,563 by Ashton 8/17/01 1:32:01 AM Reply	Doverai ni proverai.. Ronnie was so proud of himself! - his first uttered Russian words.. (old Russian saying) Trust.. but verify. And fact is / seems to be - there remains enough of that sense between the real pros in US and Russia (indicated by their telling us exactly what was broken in the #&^%&#$ Microsloth db, which was hiding weapons numbers) to use the word 'trust' correctly. Today, anyway. Tomorrow ?? Etc. No, I can't give you a nice slogan that proves* we can make any such arrangement utterly idiot-proof. I could.. list a few dozen reasons though, why.. TWO MINUTES = an unimaginably STUPID amount of time before launching the beginnings of what the Rand Corporation dubbed, in the early '60s Spasm War... ie after a perhaps two or 3 missiles are enroute or land - we revert to primitive logic, no matter if it can be seen that this logic shall KILL ALL, And THAT is precisely the logic ever behind M.A.D. -- which we have survived because so far, not One Insane sub Captain + a few willing accomplices - has er surfaced on either side. Wanna keep playing that game, as Russia's ability to control its weapons deteriorates every day? I Don't. China ditto - dunno the Chinese for doverai, proverai (Obviously 'reduce' was the exact wrong! word, above. D'Oh.)
Post #5,576 by wharris2 8/17/01 4:46:46 AM Reply	What is ideal? Trust but verify. Missile defense system available to both Russia and US. We deploy, they deploy. Global arms tensions reduce. Since we can bash their missiles and they can bash our missiles, we both reduce. oh nevermind early morning/late night pipe dream
Post #5,583 by Ashton 8/17/01 7:16:05 AM Reply	An excellent solution: ABMs for all. It may prove to be the only workable solution, in the end. A lose/lose deterrent and a win/win standing down of every hair trigger with verification, inspection, documentation: allowed by both sides because the alternative - though we have (I have!) lived through it since '47 - is unthinkable, is simply M.A.D. A. If it's a pipe dream, it's good stuff
Post #5,720 by wharris2 8/17/01 10:58:43 PM Reply	giggling wildly Ashton agreeing with me? Heheheh French Zombies are zapping me with lasers!
Post #5,726 by Ashton 8/18/01 2:17:49 AM Reply	..only in your rare moments of relative.... lucidity :-\ufffd
Post #5,831 by wharris2 8/19/01 12:20:52 PM Reply	my rare moments? French Zombies are zapping me with lasers!

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