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New Re: Seems that is it ...

OIL Resources.
It can be argued that US & Russia fought for control of key resources (really oil) for approx 45 years - most recently in the 'stans (Uzbekistan, Afghanistan etc:). US fought to rid Afghanistan of Russian influence which went back to when the new USSR was the first country to give diplomatic recognition to the founding of Afghanistan.

Hitler had tried to capture the oil fields in the stans, that was a lot to do with his invasion of Russia. More recently, Chechenya was found to have immense oil reserves & Russia's war there is its determined effort to make sure it controls that resource. Muslim resurgency in the region could be seen as part of Bin Laden's grand vision of an Islamic empire in the stans & down through S.E Asia to Indonesia (pop: 240 million - 70% Islamic). Any such dream needs its own pool of oil (power) else it will never amount to anything.

America now appears to have gained control of the stans & Afghanistan is seen as a lynchpin because it is the only path to build a pipeline to the Indian ocean which would become a major outlet for disbursing oil in that hemisphere.

If China is to keep developing at its current pace (which is staggering in my eyes) then China will need access to large oil reserves & that is why I believe China has been courting Arab nations hostile to US that hold significant oil reserves.

Remember the reason Japan attacked Pearl Harbour was to cover its concurrent attempt to sieze control of the oil fields in S.E. Asia. Japan had no other source & just prior to Pearl Harbour US had placed an embargo on shipping oil to Japan using Japan's imperialism in China as the justification.

Trade in Goods.
The other point of control has to be the ability to shipp oil, military goods & goods generally, in large quatities worldwide. Huchison Whampoa is just such an organisation. Gaining control of key shipping points is a highly strategic move in any trade imperialism & perhaps China has been laying a foundation for its growth by building up its shipping capabilities to the point that it may end up controlling much of the worlds ability to ship goods anywhere.

Already much of the western world is coming to rely on Chinese manufactured goods. China ships massive quantities of all types of goods to all parts of the world. The sabre rattling over Taiwan doesn't hide the local reality that most Taiwanese manufacturers have already begun a steady migration of their manufacturing to the mainland. At the moment it is believed atht at least 30% of Taiwanese mfg has already moved. The Taiwan issue re independance is US opportunity to trigger a whatever assault should US become too threatened by China's resurgence as a powerful nation.

I don't believe this is all about China seeking world domination, it is about China wanting to reposition itself as a great nation in the modern world after centuries of suppression & civil war & isolation. In order for China to develop it needs trade (WTO now achieved), it needs modernisation (happening at a staggering pace), it needs oil and this is a bit of a problem. US is sytematically locking up all the core oil producing regions it can (those it is able to). This tends to give US the more powerful leverage & can control China's aspirations.

US policy seems to me to be to deny China any oil allies & to force China into consuming its own reserves. US is putting more effort into opening up its own reserves but is making sure it gets control of Arab & stans oil reserves & can be expected to go after what it can in S.E. Asia. The recent freeing of East Timor is a classic case in point. In the 1970s when the Fretlin (a communist related freedom movement in East Timor) took control after the Portugese walked out, US encouraged Indonesia to invade. They did so with US training & weapons (this is well documented, we in Australia at the time watched while it all happened & the government of the day supported it). Now in the 2000s, with no communist threat, US has encouraged East Timor to seek independece & got Australia to heap pressure on Indonesia to allow it to happen. Why?, because East Timor becomes a new Kuwait, it has major oil reserves in the Timor straits & US controlled oil companies get to take that oil out. Australia & East Timor have signed an agreement re access to this oil.


Cheers Doug Marker

PS: One other great point made by someone recently...
The Palestinians can never win against Israel, why?, because they have no oil!.
Expand Edited by dmarker2 July 17, 2002, 09:15:43 PM EDT
New None of this progression is unthinkable
but by its very nature - were corroboaration to be uncovered - strategy would demand immediate switch to Plan 2. I still prefer Nasser's brilliant quip (via Ric Locke)

The genius of you Americans is that you never make clear-cut stupid moves, only complicated stupid moves that make us wonder at the possibility that there may be something to them that we are missing.

Of Course! it is All About [oil].

Of course too (!) not all our intrigues are 'stupid', but Graham Greene has done a good enough job of explaining (In the American Grain) why we are apt to let bag-out-of-cat.. more often than less voluble types, those possessing centuries of poker-faces and [what especially we Most lack] patience! ...

I See:





A crap shoot. Again and still.


Ashton
(even if.. we had a Real President and not a failed-CIEIO, spoiled Texas brat + his soiled-sidekick mentor)
New The grand plan from stupid fragments.
The OTHER option is that the grand plan is just as Doug phrases it.

But we don't see it that way.

What we're doing (our foreign policy and such) will have that effect, but that isn't our goal.

Our goal is to control the oil. This will maximize our ability to profit from it. Our foreign policy will support this grab 'cause our government is so tied to the oil companies.

We aren't planning on making China burn up its reserves.

We're just greedy and don't want China to have any control of oil that it isn't sitting on right now.

Same effect, completely different agendas.

And so on with each of the other points.

We operate from greed, a need to control others and a fascination with our ability to visit violence upon anyone who disagrees with us.
New All the while...
feelin Rilly Good about Ourselves!

Asylum Earth (the prequel) or,

The [Absolute] => God on Acid, invents the featherless chicken + ego.



All we can 'do' is

{Applaud} the Play!

Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle..



(Not to fear: Her next Play shall feature a Fail Safe \ufffd box in the chicken brain. Possibly a longer run..)
New Re: When will oil run out ? - some articles
Quote from the end of the 1st linked article...

But while oil remains an available and relatively inexpensive resource, it will no doubt remain the backbone of economic power and an political influence in the world.

**********************************

[link|http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/newsid_677000/677610.stm|What are the world's oil resources? ]

Extract ...

The world has about 1,000 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves with the largest amounts to be found under Saudi Arabia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iran in the Gulf.

Venezuela has the next largest reserves, while in North America there are major deposits in all of Mexico, the US and Canada. Major oil producers
Saudi Arabia

(8 million)
United States
(6.5 million)
Russia
(5.9 million)
Iran
(3.5 million)
China
(3.5 million)
(barrels/day)

Russia and China also have large proven reserves but, along with the US, they are pumping at rates which will cease to be sustainable far sooner than their Middle East counterparts. In Central Asia, Kazakhstan has large oil reserves which have not been fully exploited to date.

Africa has significant deposits in Libya, Nigeria and Algeria, while large North Sea deposits are exploited mainly by Norway.

Are we running out of oil?

Oil is a finite resource which could eventually run out. World consumption today is about 70 million barrels a day and oil producers expect this to rise to 100 million barrels by 2020.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) says its reserves are sufficient to last another 80 years at the current rate of production.

What is more likely is that there will always be oil around, it will just become harder to extract, of poorer quality and more expensive.

That is why many energy companies are currently investing large sums to find alternative sources of energy to reduce the world's reliance on oil.

etc: etc:


*****************************
OTHER ARTICLES
*****************************

"As the oil price fluctuates in the international market, China can hardly secure a stable oil supply by imports alone. Meanwhile, domestic reserves are far below the increasing oil demand. A practical way to get out of the dilemma and guarantee oil supply is to explore various channels of international cooperation, Zhou pointed out.

The strategies include: jointly run refineries or liquefied natural gas plants in major oil-producing countries, taking an active part in overseas oil and natural gas exploration and setting up our own oil-producing bases abroad. "

[link|http://www.china.org.cn/e-15/15-3-o/15-3-o-14.htm|Restructure Oil Resources]

************************

[link|http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/caspgrph.html|Caspian Sea Reserves (the 'stans)]

Regarding the proposed Khazakstan - China pipeline ...
"Agreement 1997; feasibility study halted in September 1999 because Kazakhstan could not commit sufficient oil flows for the next 10 years".

************************

Tibet as a main oil reserve - "We are confident that Tibet will become an oil reserve base in the 21st century,"

[link|http://www.tibet.ca/wtnarchive/1999/7/22_2.html|Scientists comment on possible tibet oil reserves]

************************

North Korea believed to have 12 million barrels in oil reserves ...

[link|http://www.korea-np.co.jp/pk/072nd_issue/98120202.htm|Nth Korea Diagram of oil reserves]

************************




Expand Edited by dmarker2 July 18, 2002, 11:26:23 PM EDT
New According to environmentalists circa 1970 oil ran out 2001
During the building of the AK pipeline the environmental movement declared it a tragedy because all oil would run out there by 1999. All oil in known world reserves would be depleted by 2001. I guess this was before they discovered global warning.
thanks,
Bill
."Once, in the wilds of Afghanistan, I had to subsist on food and water for several weeks." W.C. Fields
New Nice coverage of a main item on the list.
One can extrapolate the consumption + increasing difficulty of extraction (cost) to match it - to guesstimate how seriously shall alternatives become funded or..

{horrors} imagine a decision to accept that wasting of energy is a Bad Thing (?)

That would put a large crimp in the habits of societies based upon: waste being encouraged to sustain not merely profit but - growth in profits. If this is the largest element of the survival equation, there seem to be just a few others ~

Energy: read [oil][$] for the terminally uncreative. (covered)

Religion: which [Mine's Bigger!] shall exterminate all the lesser, or at least cow adequately - #2 on down. Of course too, whatever the rhetoric, it's All entirely about the mundane: the power.

Population: the biggie. Eventually tapering? or perpetual exponential growth?

Divison of planetary wealth: intertwined with the obvious intent of Each group's God - desiring hegemony for Its Chosen Folk. As intransigent as the greed worm.

Planetary corruption, physical & mental: obviously an amalgamation of all the above + our insouciance (seen as disinterest in the whole topic) until - long past the point where we might have reversed a particular Bad Thing (which we have finally agreed Is Bad).


Hmmm - not a terribly long list (unless I left out something important). A sane species could deal with each one and the sum - er 'sanely'.





Which doesn't help *us* a lot, does it?

Ashton
     Lemme bounce a new theory of why US wants to invade Iraq ... - (dmarker2) - (14)
         So whacher sayin' is... - (jb4) - (7)
             Re: Seems that is it ... - (dmarker2) - (6)
                 None of this progression is unthinkable - (Ashton) - (5)
                     The grand plan from stupid fragments. - (Brandioch) - (4)
                         All the while... - (Ashton) - (3)
                             Re: When will oil run out ? - some articles - (dmarker2) - (2)
                                 According to environmentalists circa 1970 oil ran out 2001 - (boxley)
                                 Nice coverage of a main item on the list. - (Ashton)
         backtrack - (tablizer) - (5)
             No problem. - (Andrew Grygus) - (4)
                 Re: Good sources - very interesting! - an extract ... - (dmarker2) - (3)
                     "Oh what a tangled web we weave - (Ashton) - (2)
                         Pess Release on the US Bombings of Iraq in 2001 - (dmarker2) - (1)
                             Techno gives us certain guarantees - - (Ashton)

Her patriotism is as genuine as her hair color.
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