Proportionality

Post #394,987 by pwhysall 9/24/14 9:42:41 AM Reply	Proportionality The World Health Organization estimates that in 2012, there were 207 million cases of malaria. That year, the disease is estimated to have killed between 473,000 and 789,000 people. Yeah, Ebola is bad. Mainly because it kills you in interesting and disgusting ways, and because it's basically incurable. But getting bent out of shape because there's a mouse in the butter when there's an elephant in the fridge, that's a bit daft.
Post #395,039 by crazy 9/25/14 3:46:45 PM 9/25/14 6:24:59 PM Reply	Apples and Orangutangs ie: worthless comparison. http://www.who.int/features/factfiles/malaria/en/ Let's see, a .3% death rate. VS about 50% for the current ebola run. And to be the absolute cynic, 90% of those that die of malaria are under 5 years old. So the death rate of people who think about it in personal terms is a mere .03% rate. We ignore those types of risks every day, crossing the street, eating an unhealthy meal, etc. Doesn't even trigger the worry threshold. Then add the regional issue. If you don't live in a malaria region, the risk drops again, dramatically. There is simply no comparison. After a certain percentage of population is sick with ebola, the health care system will collapse. Only a very small number of isolation rooms with staff capable of handling them. Once you cross that line, the infection rate will skyrocket since people are simply being turned away from hospitals and the bodies pile up on the street. Once the bodies are piling up, then no one can go anywhere, people stop working, and the economy collapses, which in turn triggers food and water and electricity shortages. The world has been living with malaria for quite a while. It may suck, but we know how to deal with it. We simply cannot deal with ebola. Too infectious and too deadly. And that 50% survival rate will get far worse once the health care system collapses, since the reason most of the 50% of people survive is not due to immunity, but to other people caring for them to get past the peak awfulness period. Edited by crazy Sept. 25, 2014, 06:24:59 PM EDT Expand All History
Post #395,041 by boxley 9/25/14 5:00:30 PM Reply	actually that is a good thing if you notice the survival rate is going up. Means it is evolving in a few years survival rate may jump to 70%. It appears that aggressive rehydration helps a lot. Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 59 years. meep
Post #395,044 by Another Scott 9/25/14 6:02:14 PM Reply	Last I saw, the mortality rate was 70% not 50%... E.g. LA Times In the WHO paper, researchers presented their first, full statistical snapshot of the epidemic, which gained a foothold in December of last year and has fallen hardest on Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. The majority of patients stricken by Ebola are 15 to 44 years old, with men and women suffering at a nearly equal rates, according to researchers. The case fatality rate -- based on confirmed cases only -- is 70.8%, with a slightly lower chance of death -- 64.3% -- for those admitted to a hospital. Although the epidemic has already killed more people than all previous outbreaks combined, researchers said the virus now wreaking havoc on some of the world’s poorest nations is no more lethal or virulent than other strains. Instead, its rapid spread is due to "insufficient" control efforts, and a "large intermixing" population that has transported the virus across borders and between rural and urban areas. NEJM: The current outbreak has caused more cases and deaths than any previous EVD epidemic (see graph in the Supplementary Appendix). It appears to have started in the Guéckédou district of Guinea. The first case was recorded in December 2013, but that case was probably not the first in this outbreak.1,2 Until the end of April 2014, most cases were reported from Guinea, with a small number in bordering parts of Liberia and Sierra Leone (see graph). In late April, a dip in reported cases in Guinea gave hope that the epidemic was beginning to subside and could be confined largely to one country. That hope was abandoned as the number of confirmed cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone rose sharply during May. By August 16, the cumulative number of confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of EVD in the three worst-affected countries plus Nigeria was 2240, with 1229 deaths. The ratio of deaths to cases implies a case fatality rate of 55%. However, this estimate is approximate, since some cases and deaths (perhaps many) have been missed; in particular, contact tracing in Guinea during the initial period was far from adequate, allowing further opportunities for transmission. Moreover, the fatality rate varies markedly among geographic sites, ranging from 30 to 90% in this epidemic. Although the largest number of cases was reported in the week starting July 28, the data compiled from Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone give little indication that incidence has begun systematically to decline (see graph). As yet, there is no persuasive evidence that the epidemic is under control. And the recent discovery of cases in Nigeria, which shares no border with Guinea, Liberia, or Sierra Leone, highlights the risk of wider spread across Africa and to other continents. Beyond the immediate health concerns, Ebola is also becoming a humanitarian and economic emergency: schools are being closed, agriculture and mining are under threat as workers leave the affected areas, and cross-border commerce has slowed. Emphasis added. They know how to reduce the mortality rate (isolation, careful handling of patients with good PPE, keeping people hydrated, etc.), but those things can only be done with great difficulty in poor countries. It's a bad situation, but it seems like the world is finally paying attention. Cheers, Scott.

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