I donÂt buy it for a minute, and I think his whole argument is ridiculous.
As these guys always do, they have a small set of arguments. One is the argument from very big numbers: there are 10^22 stars in the known universe, and the current data shows that a significant fraction of them have planets, and theyÂve even observed a few of them that have earth-like temperatures.
I say, big whoop. The other big numbers we could throw around are the distances of these stars from us and each other, which completely negate the bonus of large numbers. WeÂre simply not going to get an accidental signal from elsewhere; signal strength is going to drop off as the inverse of the square of the distance, so weÂre not going to pick up some broadcast from an alien civilization. TheyÂre going to have to aim a signal at us (one unexceptional star out of 10^22), and theyÂre going to have to invest a significant fraction of the energy output of their star to get the signal to us.
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Good points.
There may be ways other than electromagnetic radiation (that is limited to a speed of "c") to send information over inter-stellar distances, but we don't know about them yet. Until that day comes, the vast scale of distances makes contact very, very unlikely.
Cheers,
Scott.