so you only care about here.

we are running at a 35 to 40% clip of short term rollover on debt loads of 1T plus. And to be precise..that number is actually 60+%

If we were financing all of this on 30 yr notes maybe, but...

Of the marketable securities currently held by the public as of
September 30, 2010, $5,180 billion, or 61 percent, will mature within the next 4 years (see Figure 3)

5.2T of the debt will need to be refinanced within 4 years. (and thats only of the amount held by public, not intergovernmental...assuming the same ratio that only makes matters worse.

http://www.treasuryd...ddebt_ann2010.pdf

In addition, they're selling the TIPS stuff to the public which is adding inflation risk to the government on the cost of those securities.

So, a 4ish point rise in inflation..and the rise in rates to go with would drive short term debt service costs up about 200 to 250 billion per year.

In and of itself, maybe no big deal...but it does make any attempt to reign things in that much harder, doesn't it...if in addition to service cuts and everything else the debt commission is proposing..you pitch another quarter trillion on top of as increased interest expense.

Post #336,557 by beepster 12/2/10 4:30:55 PM 12/2/10 4:37:09 PM Reply	so you only care about here. and don't think anything is connected globally. All 9T of that money stayed inside the US... okee dokee skokee. Actually will grant that the 9T is not a driving cause...point is inflationary pressure is there, in food and other areas..and it won't take much improvement in growth to unbottle it. Do I think we are headed for Weimar. No. That doesn't mean that a 3 or 4 point jump wouldn't create a problem. Sure, understanding today's complex world of the future is a little like having bees live in your head. But...there they are. Edited by beepster Dec. 2, 2010, 04:37:09 PM EST Expand All History
Post #336,558 by jake123 12/2/10 4:41:51 PM Reply	My reading is that a three or four point jump would actually fix a lot of problems.
Post #336,561 by beepster 12/2/10 5:43:36 PM Reply	Not if we are running at a 35 to 40% clip of short term rollover on debt loads of 1T plus. And to be precise..that number is actually 60+% If we were financing all of this on 30 yr notes maybe, but... Of the marketable securities currently held by the public as of September 30, 2010, $5,180 billion, or 61 percent, will mature within the next 4 years (see Figure 3) 5.2T of the debt will need to be refinanced within 4 years. (and thats only of the amount held by public, not intergovernmental...assuming the same ratio that only makes matters worse. http://www.treasuryd...ddebt_ann2010.pdf In addition, they're selling the TIPS stuff to the public which is adding inflation risk to the government on the cost of those securities. So, a 4ish point rise in inflation..and the rise in rates to go with would drive short term debt service costs up about 200 to 250 billion per year. In and of itself, maybe no big deal...but it does make any attempt to reign things in that much harder, doesn't it...if in addition to service cuts and everything else the debt commission is proposing..you pitch another quarter trillion on top of as increased interest expense. Sure, understanding today's complex world of the future is a little like having bees live in your head. But...there they are.

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