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New What a nightmare...
Apparently there's a substantial risk of the BOP falling over and the entire well structure failing. Leading to a total blowout of the reservoir...

If the BP data correctly or honestly identified four separate reservoirs then a bleed-out might gush less than 2 to 2.5 billion barrels unless the walls -- as it were -- fracture or partially collapse. I am hearing the same dark rumors which suggest fracturing and a complete bleed-out are already underway. Rumors also suggest a massive collapse of the Gulf floor itself is in the making. They are just rumors but it is time for geologists or related experts to end their deafening silence and speak to these possibilities.


80-100 billion gallons... :-(

Cheers,
Scott.
New shelburn at TOD responds (on June 25) to DougR
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6659

A gentle but persuasive takedown.

In this post, I would like to respond to a long comment made by DougR a few days ago, that has received a lot of publicity.

First, I will say that in one area we are in complete agreement. BP and the USCG have been less than forthcoming, and in doing so have hurt both themselves and the general public as all kinds of wild rumors and technical misinformation abound. Some of this misinformation results in harm to individuals and businesses as people suffer increased stress and tourists cancel vacations.

In this information vacuum it is easy to make wrong assumptions that lead to mistaken conclusions. It can be made worse if you have some degree of technical knowledge and verbiage and use that to make a case for a scenario that doesn’t pass muster with actual engineering analysis but sounds highly authoritative to many people, some TV commentators and various politicians.


Cheers,
Scott.
     when msnbc thinks the prez is a tard - (boxley) - (27)
         Depends on who runs against him, doesn't it? - (Another Scott) - (26)
             brit view - (boxley) - (25)
                 My, things are interesing in Boxleyland. ;-) -NT - (Another Scott)
                 Yeah right - (jake123) - (20)
                     thermite works underwater - (boxley) - (19)
                         You're forgetting the First Rule of Holes. - (Another Scott) - (18)
                             an underwater torch is better than a spill -NT - (boxley) - (11)
                                 Explain to me what a torch or thermite is going to do. - (Another Scott) - (10)
                                     here, have a boo - (boxley) - (7)
                                         Heh. - (Another Scott) - (6)
                                             Who is that mysterious stranger at the end of that page? :-) -NT - (Another Scott)
                                             my idea is different as you noticed -NT - (boxley) - (4)
                                                 Where's the oxygen going to come from to "burn" it? - (Another Scott) - (3)
                                                     Doesnt need oxygen, whole point of the idea - (boxley) - (2)
                                                         Mythbusters Toast 1/2 Ton of Thermite - (boxley)
                                                         Not the same thing. - (Another Scott)
                                     BTW administration claims 40k bpd not 2 million -NT - (boxley) - (1)
                                         40k barrels/day * 42 gallons/barrel = 1.7M gal/day. HTH :-) -NT - (Another Scott)
                             Great comments here by an industry dude - (lincoln) - (5)
                                 Thanks. -NT - (Another Scott) - (1)
                                     ditto, good read -NT - (boxley)
                                 What a nightmare... - (Another Scott) - (1)
                                     shelburn at TOD responds (on June 25) to DougR - (Another Scott)
                                 Just got around to reading all the TOD material, comments - (Ashton)
                 British media is making sound like the US is anti-British - (SpiceWare) - (2)
                     we are - (boxley) - (1)
                         don't agree, calling something by it's old name is not anti- - (SpiceWare)

Wow, now I'm going to get a sparkly jacket and call myself a witch...
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