Economy falls into sharp recession.

My best bet for triggering a recession is the Fed being forced to raise interest rates. Adjustable rate mortages will jump and lots of people will lose their homes. That sends housing from a decline into a crash, and then ripples across the economy.

But I'm also betting the Feds are well aware of this and will not raise interest rates. In fact, I think the Feds would go to Congress and tell them to either raise taxes or cut spending before raising interest rates significantly.

5) New Orleans and the Gulf Coast continues a very slow, very drawn-out recovery. But it will be decades before the area will have pre-Katrina economic activity and population levels.

Rising sea levels may preempt the recovery and force the permanent evacuation of New Orleans. But I don't think we will know either way for a decade or two.

6) A Major Earthquake strikes a the US mainland and causes billions of dollars of damage. Recovery is very slow, but a few lessons learned from Katrina speed up the process to some extent.

The only lesson learned will be a greater willingness by other groups to ignore FEMA and move in to provide support themselves.

3) One (Stevens) and potentially two (Ginsberg?) seats will open up on the US Supreme Court. A threatened confirmation battle will force Bush to consider and submit more moderate candidates than he has thus far.

Barring a medical problem, I don't think so. I think they are all committed to waiting out Bush before stepping down.

4) (On the "Good News" side of things:) State and Local elections will continue a gradual trend away from the "conservatives". Close elections will break for moderates and liberals. ID proponents will not have another significant victory on school boards nor in the courts - at least not for many years.

I think you are right that the overall trend will work against conservatives. But don't underestimate the ability of the religious right to lie their way into power. It is fairly common for them to run as unknown moderates and then morph into a radical rightwinger once they win, and then get thrown out the next election. I expect that to get them a few short term victories.

3) China's explosive growth will slow significantly due to a slowdown in world economic growth and due to internal problems with China's energy network, its banking system, and pressures for increased rural investment.

But it won't stop. China's leaders are well aware they need to develop an internal economy, they can't run the country on exports forever.

7) The record companies and movie studios will lose more of their power over the market place and the courts and Congress will take steps to restore "fair-use".

Too soon, I expect a couple of more years of increasing marginalization before they fall far enough out of power for them to lose in Congress.

Jay

Who wouldn't be posting this much, but I'm sitting around my apartment avoiding the cleaning I should be doing.