But, with millions of guns and bombs in the country, it's hard to "win" with air power, too. Unless you're willing to flatten towns in the process.

A few thousand helicopter gunships and a few score C-130s would certainly turn the tide, but at what cost to the civilian population?

There isn't a technological solution to the Iraq conflict. The good guys need to take the towns in a systematic way, confiscate the guns, bombs and weapons, put in place trusted police, prosecutors and judges, and do the usual pacification stuff. And hold them. And start reconstruction, etc. And gain the trust of the population. And slowly, slowly, expand out from there in a sustainable way. Unfortunately, it may take a generation or two to get the job done. That's (almost certainly) too much time for us to be there in a major way.

I think you have the right basic idea. But your still underestimating the cost. The problem has passed the point where we can occupy a small area, put trusted people in power and move on. The insurgents have gotten to used to this method and simply move or hide when the US occupies an area and slip back in when we leave.

To take control in Iraq we would need to commit enough troops to occupy a significant portion of the country at once, plus have a reserve left over to hit enemy forces when they surface.

If we had done this before the insurgency had gotten to strength then 200,000 to 250,000 troops may have been enough. At this point I would estimate 500,000 soldiers in Iraq to stabilize the country. And probably a decade long commitment before we could begin bringing them back.

The only way we can reach that level of forces would be a draft, and I don't see that happening. So instead I see two sane alternatives. Pull out fast and let Iraq have it's civil war and cope on it's own. Not pretty but it would minimize US casualties and might in the long run minimize Iraqi ones also. Or prop up the Iraqi government as best we can, pull out in phases soon along with a healthy dose of propaganda to make it look good and hope somebody we can deal with seizes power in Iraq.

What will probably happen at this points is that we will sorta prop up the government, but without giving them enough real power. Then we will pull out according to some fixed political schedule, without planning it well. And then the religious radicals will seize power.

Jay