Post #253,844
4/29/06 11:33:22 PM
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US considering partitioning Iraq
[link|http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/29/AR2006042901142.html|Washington Post] As the U.S. military struggles against persistent sectarian violence in Iraq, military officers and security experts find themselves in a vigorous debate over an idea that just months ago was largely dismissed as a fringe thought: that the surest -- and perhaps now the only -- way to bring stability to Iraq is to divide the country into three pieces.
Those who see the partitioning of Iraq as increasingly attractive argue that separating the Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds may be the only solution to the violence that many experts believe verges on civil war. Others contend that it would simply lead to new and dangerous challenges for the United States, not least the possibility that al-Qaeda would find it easier to build a new base of operations in a partitioned Iraq. I can't imagine that Bush would accept such an admission of failure. But that the military is even considering such a thing indicates that they don't think the current Iraqi government and military are not going to be of any use any time soon. Jay
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Post #253,850
4/30/06 12:25:10 AM
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It wouldn't work.
There are a couple of big problems:
1) The Kurds and the Shia dominate the areas with the oil, except around Kirkuk (which Saddam forced the Kurds to leave). The Sunnis do not dominate any areas with substantial oil reserves. If there was a partition based on geography, the Sunnis would be at a substantial economic disadvantage. The Kurds and Shia would have no incentive to give up their oil (if they did, there would be little need for partition). It's a recipe for decades of war.
2) Many areas and many families are not purely Sunni or purely Shia or purely Kurd (which are mostly Sunni from what I've seen). If Iraq was partitioned based on religion or ethnicity, many families would be displaced. It's another recipe for decades of war.
Partition would be a disaster. It did wonders for India and Pakistan, didn't it? :-/ The only sensible choice is to keep the country together under a representative government. If that representative government decides to adjust things over time, with the consent of all groups, that's a different issue.
Cheers,
Scott.
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Post #253,852
4/30/06 2:01:12 AM
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Saddam left a third big problem
He deliberately resettled Sunnis in areas held by other ethnic groups. Some of the people displaced in that process want to move back where others live. The Sunnis who were resettled have no back to move to.
This situation will not sort itself out in any easy way.
Cheers,
Ben
I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
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Post #254,699
5/7/06 6:37:52 PM
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The Kurds are alrady undoing that.
Much more peacably than it was done in the first place, by the way.
A unified Iraq is not mandatory. War is the norm in that part of the world. Why not give the more decent people a fighting chance?
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Post #253,853
4/30/06 2:45:19 AM
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Face it, it's a disaster no matter how you look at it.
There is no Iraq. It's East Syria, Kurdistan and the Western Marches of the Persian Empire and those three will be at each other's throats for a century or two, or maybe three.
The Turks would exterminate Kurdistan in a moment save for their ambition to rejoin Europe, so Kurdistan will probably stay.
The Kurds are Suni? No, they're Suni-Kurd as distinct from Suni-Arab. They will fight each other tooth and nail. To paraphrase an Afghan from a couple years back, "I'm an Iraqi for 60 years, a Muslim for 1200 years, a Kurd for 10,000 years" - and that's the order of loyalty.
This was all going to happen anyway, but Bush managed to get it all blamed on him and get us all tangled up in it. Sheer genius, that.
[link|http://www.aaxnet.com|AAx]
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Post #253,854
4/30/06 2:57:12 AM
4/30/06 2:59:44 AM
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If I were President . . .
. . I'd draw three lines on the map and I'd say:
"This is Suniland, this is Shialand and this is Kurdistan. Now I'm pulling my grunts and youz guys can go ahead and do the ethnic cleansing thing to your heart's content, but if any of youz violates these borders I'm gonna fix you so the Stone Age looks like Tomorrowland. Verstet?"
[link|http://www.aaxnet.com|AAx]
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Post #253,888
4/30/06 4:34:41 PM
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Can't ... the US wants the oil too much
if it falls into a civil war, all that oil will be off the market until the issue is resolved.
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Post #253,890
4/30/06 4:55:29 PM
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Wrong tesnse ... and just wrong
If it falls into a civil war, all that oil will be off the market until the issue is resolved. -- should be -- When it fell into a civil war, all that oil was off the market until the issue is resolved. More truthful, but less accurate. ===
Purveyor of Doc Hope's [link|http://DocHope.com|fresh-baked dog biscuits and pet treats].
[link|http://DocHope.com|http://DocHope.com]
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Post #253,893
4/30/06 5:08:04 PM
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And staying in there is helping . . . exactly how?
Regular was $3.22 down at the corner yesterday (may be higher today).
"Honey, if we don't buy this new Hummer SUV the terrorists will have won!"
[link|http://www.aaxnet.com|AAx]
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Post #253,894
4/30/06 5:19:25 PM
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Not helping at all
But since our rulers are incapable of admitting fallibility, there is no option but to "stay the course". Besides, if we were not actively fighting somewhere, said rulers would be reduced to public servents, and that would be just ickey.
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Post #254,225
5/2/06 8:43:16 PM
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That's what we should have done from teh beginning
Let the people who know how to be free, be free, and let Saddam starve in Baghdad.
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179. I will not outsource core functions.
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[link|http://omega.med.yale.edu/~pcy5/misc/overlord2.htm|.]
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Post #254,279
5/3/06 12:39:24 PM
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Re: US considering partitioning Iraq
Creation of Kurdistan will immediatelly create problem with Turkey (and Iran) - their kurds will be definetely interested to expand it's borders with part of the present Turkey(and Iran) territory. I doubt that anybody would be interested to create new Kosovo.
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