I think Vista Home (or whatever it's called) is going to be a very tough sell with all the DRM stuff that MS is pushing. If the Mac Mini Video (oweic) box has minimal or reasonable DRM, then Jobs may have another hit. Especially if he can get it out the door substantially before the PS3 arrives.
On corporate uptake, I think it ultimately depends on how good MS is at forcing Dell and other OEMs to preload it, and on how their licensing for big corps is written. If, somehow, MS is able to get them over a barrel, companies may not have much choice to take it. But maybe they'll just wipe it and roll out Win2k or XP anyway...
MS has a lot of Vista's destiny in its hands even if its onerous. Remember that it was cheaper for OEMs to license DOS + Windows 3.0 than DOS alone...
It should be very interesting in the next 6-12 months.
Cheers,
Scott.