So, the US solved no problem, gets blamed for all others.

--\n-------------------------------------------------------------------\n* Jack Troughton jake at consultron.ca *\n* [link|http://consultron.ca|http://consultron.ca] [link|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca] *\n* Kingston Ontario Canada [link|news://news.consultron.ca|news://news.consultron.ca] *\n-------------------------------------------------------------------

[link|http://www.doi.gov/news/030312.htm|10.4 B barrels "technically recoverable", 1.4 Mbbl/day estimated production]. That would give 20.3 years at 1.4 Mbbl/day (real production rates will almost certainly fall after a peak).

The [link|http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/petroleu.html#IntlConsumption|EIA] has an XLS file that says the US consumption in June 2005 was 21.2 Mbbl/day, and [link|http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/petroleu.html#IntlConsumption|EIA] has an XLS file that says that the US production in June 2005 was 5.4 Mbbl/day.

Similarly, the [link|http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/petroleu.html#IntlConsumption|EIA] says that US Net Imports were 12.8 Mbbl/day in June 2005.

So if you accept all of the above, then ANWAR could decrease net oil imports by 1.4/12.8 = 10.9% - a not-insignificant amount. But, by the time ANWAR oil was on the market, it's probably safe to assume that US net imports would be larger than 12.8 Mbbl/day, giving ANWAR a smaller piece of the pie. But it may also be the case that pressure on oil markets will be larger by that time (due to increased imports by China and India) so that any increase in production will help reduce pressure on the market.

ANWAR clearly isn't a panacea, and won't be a big part of the solution to the oil import problem we have. It would help some, but, e.g., improving efficiency in transportation would help much more.

FWIW.

Cheers,
Scott.

Post #238,688 by warmachine 12/20/05 6:18:26 PM Reply	So, the US solved no problem, gets blamed for all others. Matthew Greet Choose Life. Choose a job. Choose a career. Choose a family. Choose a fucking big television, choose washing machines, cars, compact disc players and electrical tin openers. Choose good health, low cholesterol, and dental insurance. Choose fixed interest mortgage repayments. Choose a starter home. Choose your friends. Choose leisurewear and matching luggage. Choose DIY and wondering who the fuck you are on a Sunday morning. Choose sitting on that couch watching mind-numbing, spirit-crushing game shows, stuffing fucking junk food into your mouth. Choose rotting away at the end of it all, pishing your last in a miserable home, nothing more than an embarrassment to the selfish, fucked up brats you spawned to replace yourself. Choose your future. Choose life... But why would I want to do a thing like that? I chose not to choose life. I chose somethin' else. And the reasons? There are no reasons. Who needs reasons when you've got heroin? - Mark Renton, Trainspotting.
Post #238,694 by boxley 12/20/05 6:35:14 PM Reply	one more small step to solve the Saudi Arabian problem "the reason people don't buy conspiracy theories is that they think conspiracy means everyone is on the same program. Thats not how it works. Everybody has a different program. They just all want the same guy dead. Socrates was a gadfly, but I bet he took time out to screw somebodies wife" Gus Vitelli Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free american and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 49 years. meep questions, help? [link\|mailto:pappas@catholic.org\|email pappas at catholic.org]
Post #238,889 by CRConrad 12/21/05 7:35:08 PM Reply	How? Getting rid of the evil fanatic Wahabbite tyrants... ...by paving the way for Iran to invade Saudi Arabia and replace them with evil fanatic Shiite tyrants? Some "solution". [link\|mailto:MyUserId@MyISP.CountryCode\|Christian R. Conrad] (I live in Finland, and my e-mail in-box is at the Saunalahti company.) Yes Mr. Garrison, genetic engineering lets us correct God's horrible, horrible mistakes, like German people. - [link\|http://maxpages.com/southpark2k/Episode_105\|Mr. Hat]
Post #238,893 by boxley 12/21/05 7:43:25 PM Reply	yep, absolutely they will be so busy cutting each others throats from Muritania to the hindu kush maybe they will forget about us. thanx, bill "the reason people don't buy conspiracy theories is that they think conspiracy means everyone is on the same program. Thats not how it works. Everybody has a different program. They just all want the same guy dead. Socrates was a gadfly, but I bet he took time out to screw somebodies wife" Gus Vitelli Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free american and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 49 years. meep questions, help? [link\|mailto:pappas@catholic.org\|email pappas at catholic.org]
Post #238,908 by a6l6e6x 12/21/05 10:26:34 PM Reply	But first, they will turn off the oil to the US. Casus belli, eh wot? Alex The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt. -- Bertrand Russell
Post #238,918 by Ashton 12/22/05 2:31:22 AM Reply	Then I get my greenhouse - a $500 HumVee. Silver lining :-)
Post #238,920 by jake123 12/22/05 2:54:45 AM Reply	You sure you're not talking about a 50$ hummer? --\n-------------------------------------------------------------------\n* Jack Troughton jake at consultron.ca \n [link\|http://consultron.ca\|http://consultron.ca] [link\|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca\|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca] \n Kingston Ontario Canada [link\|news://news.consultron.ca\|news://news.consultron.ca] *\n-------------------------------------------------------------------
Post #238,954 by JayMehaffey 12/22/05 11:13:16 AM Reply	50$ hummer is something else entirly
Post #238,940 by boxley 12/22/05 10:23:33 AM Reply	got a lot of oil in Alaska we arnt using "the reason people don't buy conspiracy theories is that they think conspiracy means everyone is on the same program. Thats not how it works. Everybody has a different program. They just all want the same guy dead. Socrates was a gadfly, but I bet he took time out to screw somebodies wife" Gus Vitelli Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free american and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 49 years. meep questions, help? [link\|mailto:pappas@catholic.org\|email pappas at catholic.org]
Post #238,942 by hnick 12/22/05 10:28:43 AM Reply	Cool... have it ready by Wednesday, ok? They can have less dependent cars before they have significant new production there.
Post #238,968 by ben_tilly 12/22/05 12:29:54 PM Reply	Big whoop. 1 year's supply. And it would be extracted over a 20 year period, so it only supplies 5% of our needs each year. This is not the level of resource that will support us becoming far more wasteful than we are today. Cheers, Ben I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
Post #238,975 by Another Scott 12/22/05 1:16:36 PM Reply	Some more numbers. [link\|http://www.doi.gov/news/030312.htm\|10.4 B barrels "technically recoverable", 1.4 Mbbl/day estimated production]. That would give 20.3 years at 1.4 Mbbl/day (real production rates will almost certainly fall after a peak). The [link\|http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/petroleu.html#IntlConsumption\|EIA] has an XLS file that says the US consumption in June 2005 was 21.2 Mbbl/day, and [link\|http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/petroleu.html#IntlConsumption\|EIA] has an XLS file that says that the US production in June 2005 was 5.4 Mbbl/day. Similarly, the [link\|http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/petroleu.html#IntlConsumption\|EIA] says that US Net Imports were 12.8 Mbbl/day in June 2005. So if you accept all of the above, then ANWAR could decrease net oil imports by 1.4/12.8 = 10.9% - a not-insignificant amount. But, by the time ANWAR oil was on the market, it's probably safe to assume that US net imports would be larger than 12.8 Mbbl/day, giving ANWAR a smaller piece of the pie. But it may also be the case that pressure on oil markets will be larger by that time (due to increased imports by China and India) so that any increase in production will help reduce pressure on the market. ANWAR clearly isn't a panacea, and won't be a big part of the solution to the oil import problem we have. It would help some, but, e.g., improving efficiency in transportation would help much more. FWIW. Cheers, Scott.
Post #238,981 by jake123 12/22/05 1:39:47 PM Reply	Something you gotta realise The tar sands are coming on line. Those are SA sized reserves, and they're right next door in a friendly country. We'll expect to be paid for the oil, but we're not going to expect blood for it. I'd leave ANWR alone; it's a drop in the bucket next to the tar sands, and there aren't the same kinds of concerns; there's not a lot of wildlife there as grass doesn't grow too well in bitumen-soaked sand. --\n-------------------------------------------------------------------\n* Jack Troughton jake at consultron.ca \n [link\|http://consultron.ca\|http://consultron.ca] [link\|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca\|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca] \n Kingston Ontario Canada [link\|news://news.consultron.ca\|news://news.consultron.ca] *\n-------------------------------------------------------------------
Post #239,040 by boxley 12/22/05 5:21:32 PM Reply	we know why you want to leave anwr alone you're sucking it dry from your side of the line :-) forgot those delta drilling plans? thanx, bill "the reason people don't buy conspiracy theories is that they think conspiracy means everyone is on the same program. Thats not how it works. Everybody has a different program. They just all want the same guy dead. Socrates was a gadfly, but I bet he took time out to screw somebodies wife" Gus Vitelli Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free american and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 49 years. meep questions, help? [link\|mailto:pappas@catholic.org\|email pappas at catholic.org]
Post #238,970 by tuberculosis 12/22/05 12:51:35 PM Reply	's not that much "Whenever you find you are on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect" --Mark Twain "The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them." --Albert Einstein "This is still a dangerous world. It's a world of madmen and uncertainty and potential mental losses." --George W. Bush
Post #238,979 by jb4 12/22/05 1:33:59 PM Reply	Kewl! We won't have to nuke Medina and Mecca after all...they'll do it themselves for us! (But, we'll get blamed for it, of course...) jb4 shrub●bish (Am., from shrub* + rubbish, after the derisive name for America's 43 president; 2003) n. 1. a form of nonsensical political doubletalk wherein the speaker attempts to defend the indefensible by lying, obfuscation, or otherwise misstating the facts; GIBBERISH. 2. any of a collection of utterances from America's putative 43rd president. cf.* BULLSHIT
Post #239,041 by boxley 12/22/05 5:22:52 PM Reply	like I always said, how many shiites were on the 911 planes? "the reason people don't buy conspiracy theories is that they think conspiracy means everyone is on the same program. Thats not how it works. Everybody has a different program. They just all want the same guy dead. Socrates was a gadfly, but I bet he took time out to screw somebodies wife" Gus Vitelli Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free american and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 49 years. meep questions, help? [link\|mailto:pappas@catholic.org\|email pappas at catholic.org]
Post #239,247 by mmoffitt 12/23/05 3:14:12 PM Reply	How many Afghanis and Iraqis were? I know, I'm not arguing the righteousness of attacking Afghanistan. But Saudi Arabia needs to be turned into glass. Then we put Asimov's Robots out there to suck up the oil. bcnu, Mikem It would seem, therefore, that the three human impulses embodied in religion are fear, conceit, and hatred. The purpose of religion, one might say, is to give an air of respectibility to these passions. -- Bertrand Russell

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