The error in the story occurred when Schmidt mistakenly wrote that Wilson had reported that Iraq had tried to buy 400 tons of uranium from Niger in 1998. The Senate report had said it was Iran. The Post correction, however, did not make it clear that the Senate report said it was Iran, which meant there were several different ways one could read the correction.

The former ambassador had traveled previous to Niger on the CIA's behalf [...]. The former ambassador was selected for the 1999 trip after his wife mentioned to her supervisors that her husband was planning a business trip to Niger in the near future and might be willing to use his contacts in the region [...]. Because the former ambassador did not uncover any information about [...] during his trip to Niger, CPD did not distribute an intelligence report on the visit.

The intelligence report indicated that former Nigerien Prime Minister Ibrahim Mayaki was unaware of any contracts that had been signed between Niger and any rogue states for the sale of yellowcake while he was Prime Minister (1997-1999), or Foreign Minister (1996-1997). Makaki said that if there had been any such contract during his tenure, he would have been aware of it. Mayaki said, however that in June 1999, [...] businessmen, approached him and insisted that Mayaki meet with an Iraqi delegation to discuss "expanding commercial relations" between Niger and Iraq. That intelligence reort said that Mayaki interpreted "expanding commercial relations" to mean that the delegation wanted to discuss uranium yellowcake sales. The intelligence report also said that "although the meeting took place, Mayaki let the matter drop due to the UN sanctions on Iraq."


The intelligence report also said that Niger's former Minister for Energy and Mines [...], Mai Manga, stated that there were no sales outside of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) channels since the mid-1980s. He knew of no contracts signed between Niger and any rogue states for the sale of uranium. He said that an Iranian delegation was interested in purchasing 400 tones of yellowcake from Niger in 1998, but said that no contract was ever signed with Iran. Mai Manga also described how the French mining consortium controls Nigerien uranium mining and keeps uranium very tightly controlled from the time it is mined until the time it is loaded onto ships in Benin for transport overseas. Mai Manga believed it would be difficult, if not impossible, to arrange a special shipment of uranium to a pariah state given these controls.

Reporting on the uranium transaction did not surface again until February 5, 2002 when teh CIA's DO issued a second intelligence report [...] which again cited the source as a "[foreign] government service." Although not identified in the reportk, this source was also from the foreign service. The second report provided more details about the previously reported Iraq-Niger uranium agreement and provided what was said to be "verbatim text" of the accord.

[...] Subsequently, the goverments of Niger and Iraq signed an agreement regarding the sale of uranium during meetings held July 5-6, 2000. The report indicated that 500 tons of uranium per year [...].

[---]

Based on information from the CIA report from the foreign service, on February 12, 2002, the DIA wrote a finished intelligence product titled Niamey signed an agreement to sell 500 tons of uranium a year to Baghdad (NMJIC [National Military Joint Intelligence Center] Executive Highlight, Vol 028-02, February 12, 2002). The product outlined the details in the DO intelligence report, namely that Niger had agreed to deliver 500 tons of yellowcake uranium to Iraq [...] The piece concluded that "Iraq probably is searching abroad for natural uranium to assist in its nuclear weapons program." The product did not include any judgements about the credibility of the reporting.

That is, I've seen nobody (including Wilson) really questioning that Saddam Hussein was interested in breaching sanctions. (And why not? They weren't exactly his idea...) He just wasn't getting anywhere. In fact both the report of the UN inspectors beforehand, and the result of US army inspections afterwards strongly suggest that his capabilities were diminishing, not improving. (I've seen no indication that Saddam Hussein was fully informed of the true state of his reserves. But then again I haven't been paying much attention.)

In [link|http://z.iwethey.org...?contentid=215540|http://z.iwethey.org...?contentid=215540] [*] you were saying that there is no evidence that Saddam Hussein was trying to buy yellowcake from Niger, yet some people are trying to make it out that he was.

I take that to mean that you think there is no evidence that Saddam Hussein was trying to buy yellowcake from Niger, but lots of people are trying to make it appear that he did.

Now I don't know what you mean by "Rovian rules". However the summaries that I have read, including from Wilson, say that there is no question that Saddam Hussein wanted to start a nuclear program, and investigated options, including buying yellowcake from Niger.

How strong is that evidence? I don't know and I don't want to take the time to form a solid opinion. However the fact that people who are interested, both those for and against this administration, accept that claim suggests to me that the evidence is good enough. It is probably circumstantial - after all Saddam wasn't trying to make this an easily documented - but if it satisfies CIA people who don't like the administration then I'm willing to provisionally accept it.