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New The numbers don't add up
Exit polls have accurately predicted the winner in all but 2 presidential races ever since they began. 2000 and 2004. CNN flipped it's exit poll in Ohio at 2:00 AM last night from 52/48 Kerry to 52/48 Bush but the number of respondants remained the same? Florida's turnout was no higher than 2000? The youth vote made no difference? The senior vote made no difference? The massive turnout of new voters made no difference?

I call bullshit. Kerry won the election, Bush will be president. Sucks to live in a country that used to be democratic.
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How do you convince a Washington Journalist that you're not slapping him in the face?

Tell him you're not.
New Bush won the popular vote by over 3 million votes
what do you think happened? Do you really think that there has been massive fraud on the part of the Republicans?
Expand Edited by bluke Nov. 3, 2004, 08:53:52 AM EST
New Yes
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How do you convince a Washington Journalist that you're not slapping him in the face?

Tell him you're not.
New I saw the Ohio exit poll numbers flip
Greg could probably pull the jabber logs, but I checked at about 1 a.m. and exit polling had Kerry ahead. An hour later exit polling had Bush ahead ... by the exact same margin as the vote tallys.
===

Implicitly condoning stupidity since 2001.
New It is called *NEW MATH*, you probably have never used it.
I'll tell you that for pResident, I did not vote Republican or Democrat. (Nader didn't get my vote either)

Guess I should have not voted a throw away vote.
--
[link|mailto:greg@gregfolkert.net|greg],
[link|http://www.iwethey.org/ed_curry|REMEMBER ED CURRY!] @ iwethey
No matter how much Microsoft supporters whine about how Linux and other operating systems have just as many bugs as their operating systems do, the bottom line is that the serious, gut-wrenching problems happen on Windows, not on Linux, not on Mac OS. -- [link|http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1759,1622086,00.asp|source]
Here is an example: [link|http://www.greymagic.com/security/advisories/gm001-ie/|Executing arbitrary commands without Active Scripting or ActiveX when using Windows]
New How many states was the margin of victory ...
... smaller than the number of third-party votes?
===

Implicitly condoning stupidity since 2001.
New IIRC - None. Less than 1% across the board
A good friend will come and bail you out of jail ... but, a true friend will be sitting next to you saying, "Damn...that was fun!"
New Thought it was fuzzy math
If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. Fudd's First Law of Opposition

[link|mailto:bepatient@aol.com|BePatient]
New Re: The numbers don't add up
I just want to ask, "How many votes in Broward and Miami-Dade were 'Diebolded'?"

Of course, that's a questions of National Security....
jb4
shrub\ufffdbish (Am., from shrub + rubbish, after the derisive name for America's 43 president; 2003) n. 1. a form of nonsensical political doubletalk wherein the speaker attempts to defend the indefensible by lying, obfuscation, or otherwise misstating the facts; GIBBERISH. 2. any of a collection of utterances from America's putative 43rd president. cf. BULLSHIT

New Don't add up in another way also
I have not verified this myself. But I have seen claims that the numbers don't add up in another key way.

In states where there is a voting trail the exit polls match the vote closly. In states with no voting trail the votes is going towards Bush more then the exit polls report.

Jay
New Re: Don't add up in another way also
The exit polls are almost always correct - this time not. GO FIGURE!
-drl
New OH YEEEEEEEEEAH!
With a big wide happy ear-to-ear Kool-Aid smi-yi-yile!

The exit poll methodology was flawed. They undersampled rural areas. You know, where the food is grown that keeps city folks from starving to death.
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Memo to Democrats and to the Left: hatred is not a substitute for vision.
"All the news you wish would go away"
[link|http://www.angelfire.com/ca3/marlowe/index.html|http://www.angelfire...arlowe/index.html]
New Quagmire much?
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How do you convince a Washington Journalist that you're not slapping him in the face?

Tell him you're not.
New You mean as opposed to
the urban areas where they pay the taxes that pay the farmers so they don't become destitute?
--\n-------------------------------------------------------------------\n* Jack Troughton                            jake at consultron.ca *\n* [link|http://consultron.ca|http://consultron.ca]                   [link|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca|irc://irc.ecomstation.ca] *\n* Kingston Ontario Canada               [link|news://news.consultron.ca|news://news.consultron.ca] *\n-------------------------------------------------------------------
New WashPost story on exit polls this time around.
[link|http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A23580-2004Nov3.html|Here]:

In two previous national elections, the exit polls had behaved badly. Premature calls by the networks in Florida led to a congressional investigation in 2000. Two years later, a computer meltdown resulted in no release of data on Election Day.

On Tuesday, new problems surfaced: a 2 1/2-hour data blackout and samples that at one point or another included too many women, too few Westerners, not enough Republicans and a lead for Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry in the national survey that persisted until late in the evening.

In two instances on election night -- the results for Virginia and South Carolina -- the networks held off projecting a winner when voting ended because exit polls showed that the races were too close to call, only to see President Bush win easily in both states.

[...]

Some problems are inevitable. A total of 12,047 randomly selected voters were interviewed Tuesday as they left their polling places, and those results were fed into computers. The accumulated results were reported several times over the course of Election Day.

Results based on the first few rounds of interviewing are usually only approximations of the final vote. Printouts warn that estimates of each candidate's support are unreliable and not for on-air use. Those estimates are untrustworthy because people who vote earlier in the day tend to be different from those who vote in the middle of the day or the evening. For instance, the early national sample Tuesday that was 59 percent female probably reflected that more women vote in the day than the evening.

That is why the early leaks anger Lenski. "The basic issue here is the leaking of this information without any sophisticated understanding or analysis, in a way that makes it look inaccurate," he said.

After the survey is completed and the votes are counted, the exit poll results are adjusted to reflect the actual vote, which in theory improves the accuracy of all the exit poll results, including the breakdown of the vote by age, gender and other characteristics.


FWIW.

Cheers,
Scott.
     The numbers don't add up - (Silverlock) - (14)
         Bush won the popular vote by over 3 million votes - (bluke) - (6)
             Yes -NT - (Silverlock) - (5)
                 I saw the Ohio exit poll numbers flip - (drewk)
                 It is called *NEW MATH*, you probably have never used it. - (folkert) - (3)
                     How many states was the margin of victory ... - (drewk) - (1)
                         IIRC - None. Less than 1% across the board -NT - (jbrabeck)
                     Thought it was fuzzy math -NT - (bepatient)
         Re: The numbers don't add up - (jb4)
         Don't add up in another way also - (JayMehaffey) - (1)
             Re: Don't add up in another way also - (deSitter)
         OH YEEEEEEEEEAH! - (marlowe) - (2)
             Quagmire much? -NT - (Silverlock)
             You mean as opposed to - (jake123)
         WashPost story on exit polls this time around. - (Another Scott)

No. Only those you need.
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