Post #180,268
10/21/04 12:17:53 PM
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Broder on proposals to change EC.
[link|http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A50016-2004Oct20.html|Washington Post]: To solve the problem that vexes Raspberry and a great many others, a Colorado voter initiative on next month's ballot would divide the state's nine electoral votes according to the share of the popular vote each candidate wins. That is only one of the proposed remedies that have been considered -- and one of the easiest to debunk. If the proportional system, as it is known, became the standard for all states, the most predictable effect would be to throw more presidential elections into the House of Representatives.
A study by Congressional Quarterly, quoted by professor Judith Best of the State University of New York at Cortland in the Spring 2004 issue of Political Science Quarterly, found that at least four of the elections since 1960 -- those in 1960, 1968, 1992 and 1996 -- would have gone to the House under that system. The 2000 election might have wound up there, too, depending on how fractional votes were rounded. The Constitution requires someone to win a majority of electoral votes; otherwise, the House chooses the president from among the top three finishers.
How do you think the public would react to the discovery that in such a contingent election, each state delegation has one vote, regardless of its size -- the Democratic majority from California being matched by the single Republican member from Delaware?
Because that idea seems so flawed, most of those who support electoral-college reform favor going all the way to direct national election of the president. A constitutional amendment to abolish the electoral college and substitute direct election actually passed the House in 1969, only to fail in 1970 and again almost a decade later in the Senate.
[...]
But direct election, however appealing, has plenty of problems built into it. When Congress debated it after George Wallace threatened electoral deadlock with his third-party candidacy in 1968, opposition came from small states, whose senators feared they would be overlooked by the candidates, and from urban constituencies, who feared diminution of their power to swing big blocs of electoral votes through the unit rule.
A bigger problem, Best and others argue, could be the effect on the two-party system. Most proposals for direct election specify a minimum percentage for victory -- usually 40 percent or 45 percent -- with a runoff between the top two contenders if no one reaches that threshold.
But as soon as you introduce the possibility of a runoff, you create an incentive for minor parties to form, in hopes of bargaining for favors or policy concessions from the runoff opponents. In such a system, a John McCain might have continued running after the primaries of 2000 to extract a promise from Bush to sign campaign-finance reform, or a Howard Dean this year in hopes of swaying John Kerry's policy on Iraq.
I suspect this whole electoral-college issue is due for serious debate in the next Congress. But prudence dictates a long, skeptical look at the seemingly easy solutions. Amen on that last sentence. Cheers, Scott.
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Post #180,270
10/21/04 12:28:14 PM
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One thing is guaranteed
The discussion of solutions won't extend to solutions that could solve the limiting of our political system to 2 parties that are virtually identical.
Which is sad.
I've often noted that it is hard for me to start seriously analyzing a choice until I have at least 3 options. I think that holds for most people. Which means that our system discourages anything beyond simple binary thinking about politics. :-(
Cheers, Ben
I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
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Post #180,289
10/21/04 2:23:43 PM
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A great big "Huh?"
A bigger problem, Best and others argue, could be the effect on the two-party system. Most proposals for direct election specify a minimum percentage for victory -- usually 40 percent or 45 percent -- with a runoff between the top two contenders if no one reaches that threshold.
But as soon as you introduce the possibility of a runoff, you create an incentive for minor parties to form, in hopes of bargaining for favors or policy concessions from the runoff opponents. He says that like it's a bad thing.
----------------------------------------- It is much harder to be a liberal than a conservative. Why? Because it is easier to give someone the finger than it is to give them a helping hand. Mike Royko
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Post #180,296
10/21/04 2:49:02 PM
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Depends on how it's done.
I don't think we'd like a system like Israel's Knesset where a party getting 2% (I think it is) of the votes gets seats in a very small legislature and thus becomes king-makers. I think that India has a similar problem. [link|http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/is.html|Israel]: unicameral Knesset or parliament (120 seats; members elected by popular vote to serve four-year terms) elections: last held 28 January 2003 (next to be held fall of 2007) election results: percent of vote by party - Likud Party 29.4%, Labor 14.5%, Shinui 12.3%, Shas 8.2%, National Union 5.5%, Meretz 5.2%, United Torah Judaism 4.3%, National Religious Party 4.2%, Democratic Front for Peace and Equality 3.0%, One Nation 2.8%, National Democratic Assembly 2.3%, Yisra'el Ba'Aliya (YBA) 2.2%, United Arab List 2.1%, Green Leaf Party 1.2%, Herut 1.2%, other 1.6%; seats by party - Likud 38, Labor 19, Shinui 15, Shas 11, National Union 7, Meretz 6, National Religious Party 6, United Torah Judaism 5, Democratic Front for Peace and Equality 3, One Nation 3, National Democratic Assembly 3, YBA 2, United Arab List 2 [link|http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/in.html|India]: bicameral Parliament or Sansad consists of the Council of States or Rajya Sabha (a body consisting of not more than 250 members, up to 12 of which are appointed by the president, the remainder are chosen by the elected members of the state and territorial assemblies; members serve six-year terms) and the People's Assembly or Lok Sabha (545 seats; 543 elected by popular vote, 2 appointed by the president; members serve five-year terms) elections: People's Assembly - last held 20 April through 10 May 2004 (next to be held NA 2009) election results: People's Assembly - percent of vote by party - NA; seats by party - INC 145, BJP 138, CPI(M) 43, SP 36, RJD 21, BSP 19, DMK 16, SS 12, BJD 11, CPI 10, NCP 9, JDU 8, SAD 8, PMK 6, TDP 5, TRS 5, JMM 5, LJSP 4, MDMK 4, independents 5, other 30 Yes, parliamentary democracies are different from what we have in the US, but similar issues arise due to the needs for majorities or supermajorities to pass legislation. Representing a broad range of views is a good thing in a legislature. But ultimately a majority has to rule and that majority shouldn't be held hostage to a tiny fringe minority. Minority governments often are not as moderate as the population as a whole. :-( So I agree that breaking the Republocrat hold on US government would be a good thing in the abstract, but in practice it depends on how it's done. IMHO. Cheers, Scott.
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Post #180,301
10/21/04 3:00:13 PM
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The number three is a wonderous thing.
Three branches of government.
Hmm..
Three houses of Congress? Senate, House, and Parliment?
All I want for my birthday is a new President!
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Post #180,330
10/21/04 6:22:02 PM
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One major difference:
In these places, IIRC, the Prime Minister (the chief executive-equivalent) is selected by the Parliament; he serves at their pleasure until the next vote of "no confidence" or until the next scheduled election, which ever comes first.
In the US, the Chief Executive would be chosen directly by the electorate, thereby limiting the effect of any nth-party candidates on the selection process. A run-off election will still result in a direct election of the Chief Executive; any nth-party candidates forming Parliamentary-style "coalitions" will mean squat in the "forming of the government"; all it could possibly do is make passing legislation more difficult (which may or may not be a good thing). Note that the concept of a "no confidence" vote will still not exist in the Constitution.
jb4 shrub\ufffdbish (Am., from shrub + rubbish, after the derisive name for America's 43 president; 2003) n. 1. a form of nonsensical political doubletalk wherein the speaker attempts to defend the indefensible by lying, obfuscation, or otherwise misstating the facts; GIBBERISH. 2. any of a collection of utterances from America's putative 43rd president. cf. BULLSHIT
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Post #180,381
10/21/04 9:46:07 PM
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Gridlock is preferred
At least by me. When the politicians are deadlocked and can't make substantive change, they also can't do substantive harm. Witness the catastrophe Bush has left us with having full control.
----------------------------------------- How do you convince a Washington Journalist that you're not slapping him in the face?
Tell him you're not.
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Post #180,384
10/21/04 9:50:08 PM
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Amen corner on that one
that way too many Iraqis conceived of free society as little more than a mosh pit with grenades. ANDISHEH NOURAEE
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Post #180,399
10/21/04 11:10:11 PM
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Exactly why Eisenhower years were so good. :)
Alex
In politics, what begins in fear usually ends in folly. -- Samuel Taylor Coleridge, poet (1772-1834)
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Post #180,796
10/25/04 4:57:07 AM
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His numbers are specious
because he just takes the numbers that were and figures out how many electoral votes would have been apportioned proportionally. However, if all electoral votes were apportioned proportionally the nature of the campaign would change dramatically, there would be no swing states, the campaign would have to be conducted on a national level and there would be a much greater incentive for people in a solid state to vote. Therefore the vote numbers would most probably be very different.
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