Post #171,505
8/29/04 12:46:23 PM
|
NY Times called for abolishment of Electoral College
[link|http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/29/opinion/29sun1.html|NY Times] The Electoral College got a brief spate of attention in 2000, when George Bush became president even though he lost the popular vote to Al Gore by more than 500,000 votes. Many people realized then for the first time that we have a system in which the president is chosen not by the voters themselves, but by 538 electors. It's a ridiculous setup, which thwarts the will of the majority, distorts presidential campaigning and has the potential to produce a true constitutional crisis. There should be a bipartisan movement for direct election of the president. Getting rid of the Electoral College is a simple, obvious, good idea that will probably never happen. But at least people are talking about it now. Jay
|
Post #171,506
8/29/04 1:54:31 PM
|
There are good reasons not to get rid of it too.
The NYT article touches on them but poo-poo them as giving too much power to the small states.
We have a federal system of states. The EC was created for 2 reasons - 1) The founders were worried about the population being hypnotized by a foreign puppet or a charlatan, and 2) To gain the support of the small states for ratification of the Consitution. Point #2 is still relevant today. Removing the Electoral College would likely require a constituional amendment, and as [link|http://www.multied.com/elections/Electoralcollgewhy.html|this] article points out, it isn't likely to be agreed to by the smaller states.
Do we really want the President to be chosen by just the voters of California, Texas, New York, Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Michigan? States with large cities would gain a tremendous amount of power if the EC was abolished. I would have to see a lot more information on the costs and benefits of abolishing the EC before I could support it.
The linked article points out that the states don't have to have a winner-take-all system for chosing Electors. Perhaps a more democratic system could be constructed by changing the way Electors are chosen while keeping the EC. I'd need to see the details though.
My $0.02.
Cheers, Scott.
|
Post #171,511
8/29/04 4:39:04 PM
|
There's an amendment up for vote on tnis
in Colorado, proposing to change the winner-take-all system to a system where the candidates get the proportion of electoral votes from the state as they got popular votes.
In other words, if Bush barely carries CO, then he will get five of our nine electoral votes and Kerry will get the remaining four.
A couple of things I like about this scheme: - If it passes in November, then it goes into effect immediately for the current election. - Repubs are violently against it, which suggests we may be on to something good.
Tom Sinclair
"While I'm still confused and uncertain, it's on a much higher plane, d'you see, and at least I know I'm bewildered about the really fundamental and important facts of the universe." Treatle nodded. "I hadn't looked at it like that," he said, "But you're absolutely right. He's really pushed back the boundaries of ignorance." -- Discworld scientists at work (Terry Pratchett, Equal Rites)
|
Post #171,569
8/29/04 10:31:57 PM
|
Can't see how it could be worse
Do we really want the President to be chosen by just the voters of California, Texas, New York, Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Michigan? States with large cities would gain a tremendous amount of power if the EC was abolished. I would have to see a lot more information on the costs and benefits of abolishing the EC before I could support it. Yes there is a significant risk that a couple of big states would dominate the presidential elections, but that would also be domination by the majority of the population. And I find it hard to believe that could be worse then the current system, where a large percentage of the population is just written of because they live in a state that leans one way or another sharply and the value of citizens in low population states is much greater then that of citizens in high population states. The linked article points out that the states don't have to have a winner-take-all system for chosing Electors. Perhaps a more democratic system could be constructed by changing the way Electors are chosen while keeping the EC. I'd need to see the details though. That might improve things a bit, but it would do nothing to solve the problem that voters in small states count for more then voters in big states. The biggest reasons for the current organization of the EC is that when the country was founded everything had to be done by hand and the fastest communication was horseback. The EC was setup the way it is so a single presidential voting event could be held. Each state could pick it's electors on their own schedule and then they would get together in one place to pick the president. These reasons no longer exist, and the entire EC should be replaced with direct election. Jay
|
Post #171,584
8/29/04 11:22:28 PM
|
I'm reminded of that joke...
...that I heard circa December 2000.
Bush and Castro get together on the golf course to make nice-nice. 'Round about the 14th hole, Bush suggests to Fidel, "Ya know, partner, you should really put yourself up to a popular vote by the people of your country. If you win, we'll remove all economic sanctions against Cuba, since you'll be the popularly-elected leader of your country."
Castro responds, "You first."
-YendorMike
"They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety." - Benjamin Franklin, 1759 Historical Review of Pennsylvania
|
Post #171,624
8/30/04 2:13:25 AM
|
Not really fair
No one tries to win the popular vote. To win the popular vote would require a very different campaign strategy and therefore the popular vote is not a very good indicator of anything.
A good example is people like me who vote in a state that is solidly 1 way. I can vote by absentee ballot in NY, but I am not sure if I will because my vote is meaningless. Kerry is going to win NY by a large margin, therefore my vote whether for or against him is meaningless. Many people in states that are solidly 1 way (either Dem Or Rep) feel this way. For example, in the current system there is no incentive for the Republicans to bother to try get out the vote in NY, it is a waste of time and money. In a popular vote system (or a proportional allocation system) there would be a big incentive to get people out to vote and hopefully more people would vote.
|
Post #171,618
8/30/04 1:56:42 AM
|
Right now the only legitimate Federal elections ...
are for the Senate. The current Electoral College system basically disenfrachises most of the country except for voters in swing states. A Republican in NY or a Democrat in Texas has no reason to vote, their vote will not count. If you look at the Presidential campaign it is clear and obvious that they are basically only campaigning in the so called swing states.
House elections have become a sham as well. With all the gerrymandering at least 90% of Representatives are in safe seats where their party has enough of a majority in the district to ensure their election. Given the incumbent re-election rate in the House we might as well save money and not hold the elections.
In the Senate, there is no gerrymandering, and no games like the electoral college, every vote counts. And in fact, it seems to work, for example, heavily Democratic NY elected a Republican Senator for over 20 years (Javits, then Damato).
|
Post #171,620
8/30/04 2:02:32 AM
|
Instead the President is chosen by the people of Florida ...
Pennsylvania, etc. the swing states. A state like Florida in the current system has more power then NY would have without the electoral college. Now the voters of a state like NY are completely ignored. In a pure popular vote, no one can really be ignored because every vote counts. The Presidentail campaigns would at least have to try to run a national campaign and appeal to voters all over.
|
Post #171,655
8/30/04 10:22:37 AM
|
come on down and vote, everyone else in NY does.
These miserable swine, having nothing but illusions to live on, marshmallows for the soul in place of good meat, will now stoop to any disgusting level to prevent even those miserable morsels from vanishing into thin air. The country is being destroyed by these stupid, vicious right-wing fanatics, the spiritual brothers of the brownshirts and redstars, collectivists and authoritarians all, who would not know freedom if it bit them on the ass, who spend all their time trying to stamp, bludgeon, and eviscerate the very idea of the individual's right to his own private world. DRL questions, help? [link|mailto:pappas@catholic.org|email pappas at catholic.org]
|
Post #171,668
8/30/04 11:17:37 AM
|
Re: There are good reasons not to get rid of it too.
The founders were worried about the population being hypnotized by a foreign puppet or a charlatan Pity they didn't give the same consideration about a domestic puppet or a charlatan...
jb4 shrub\ufffdbish (Am., from shrub + rubbish, after the derisive name for America's 43 president; 2003) n. 1. a form of nonsensical political doubletalk wherein the speaker attempts to defend the indefensible by lying, obfuscation, or otherwise misstating the facts; GIBBERISH. 2. any of a collection of utterances from America's putative 43rd president. cf. BULLSHIT
|
Post #171,671
8/30/04 11:41:03 AM
|
Nah, they're ok..
"domestic puppet or a charlatan" is semantically equivalent to "politician". They've been around for years...
|
Post #180,268
10/21/04 12:17:53 PM
|
Broder on proposals to change EC.
[link|http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A50016-2004Oct20.html|Washington Post]: To solve the problem that vexes Raspberry and a great many others, a Colorado voter initiative on next month's ballot would divide the state's nine electoral votes according to the share of the popular vote each candidate wins. That is only one of the proposed remedies that have been considered -- and one of the easiest to debunk. If the proportional system, as it is known, became the standard for all states, the most predictable effect would be to throw more presidential elections into the House of Representatives.
A study by Congressional Quarterly, quoted by professor Judith Best of the State University of New York at Cortland in the Spring 2004 issue of Political Science Quarterly, found that at least four of the elections since 1960 -- those in 1960, 1968, 1992 and 1996 -- would have gone to the House under that system. The 2000 election might have wound up there, too, depending on how fractional votes were rounded. The Constitution requires someone to win a majority of electoral votes; otherwise, the House chooses the president from among the top three finishers.
How do you think the public would react to the discovery that in such a contingent election, each state delegation has one vote, regardless of its size -- the Democratic majority from California being matched by the single Republican member from Delaware?
Because that idea seems so flawed, most of those who support electoral-college reform favor going all the way to direct national election of the president. A constitutional amendment to abolish the electoral college and substitute direct election actually passed the House in 1969, only to fail in 1970 and again almost a decade later in the Senate.
[...]
But direct election, however appealing, has plenty of problems built into it. When Congress debated it after George Wallace threatened electoral deadlock with his third-party candidacy in 1968, opposition came from small states, whose senators feared they would be overlooked by the candidates, and from urban constituencies, who feared diminution of their power to swing big blocs of electoral votes through the unit rule.
A bigger problem, Best and others argue, could be the effect on the two-party system. Most proposals for direct election specify a minimum percentage for victory -- usually 40 percent or 45 percent -- with a runoff between the top two contenders if no one reaches that threshold.
But as soon as you introduce the possibility of a runoff, you create an incentive for minor parties to form, in hopes of bargaining for favors or policy concessions from the runoff opponents. In such a system, a John McCain might have continued running after the primaries of 2000 to extract a promise from Bush to sign campaign-finance reform, or a Howard Dean this year in hopes of swaying John Kerry's policy on Iraq.
I suspect this whole electoral-college issue is due for serious debate in the next Congress. But prudence dictates a long, skeptical look at the seemingly easy solutions. Amen on that last sentence. Cheers, Scott.
|
Post #180,270
10/21/04 12:28:14 PM
|
One thing is guaranteed
The discussion of solutions won't extend to solutions that could solve the limiting of our political system to 2 parties that are virtually identical.
Which is sad.
I've often noted that it is hard for me to start seriously analyzing a choice until I have at least 3 options. I think that holds for most people. Which means that our system discourages anything beyond simple binary thinking about politics. :-(
Cheers, Ben
I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
|
Post #180,289
10/21/04 2:23:43 PM
|
A great big "Huh?"
A bigger problem, Best and others argue, could be the effect on the two-party system. Most proposals for direct election specify a minimum percentage for victory -- usually 40 percent or 45 percent -- with a runoff between the top two contenders if no one reaches that threshold.
But as soon as you introduce the possibility of a runoff, you create an incentive for minor parties to form, in hopes of bargaining for favors or policy concessions from the runoff opponents. He says that like it's a bad thing.
----------------------------------------- It is much harder to be a liberal than a conservative. Why? Because it is easier to give someone the finger than it is to give them a helping hand. Mike Royko
|
Post #180,296
10/21/04 2:49:02 PM
|
Depends on how it's done.
I don't think we'd like a system like Israel's Knesset where a party getting 2% (I think it is) of the votes gets seats in a very small legislature and thus becomes king-makers. I think that India has a similar problem. [link|http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/is.html|Israel]: unicameral Knesset or parliament (120 seats; members elected by popular vote to serve four-year terms) elections: last held 28 January 2003 (next to be held fall of 2007) election results: percent of vote by party - Likud Party 29.4%, Labor 14.5%, Shinui 12.3%, Shas 8.2%, National Union 5.5%, Meretz 5.2%, United Torah Judaism 4.3%, National Religious Party 4.2%, Democratic Front for Peace and Equality 3.0%, One Nation 2.8%, National Democratic Assembly 2.3%, Yisra'el Ba'Aliya (YBA) 2.2%, United Arab List 2.1%, Green Leaf Party 1.2%, Herut 1.2%, other 1.6%; seats by party - Likud 38, Labor 19, Shinui 15, Shas 11, National Union 7, Meretz 6, National Religious Party 6, United Torah Judaism 5, Democratic Front for Peace and Equality 3, One Nation 3, National Democratic Assembly 3, YBA 2, United Arab List 2 [link|http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/in.html|India]: bicameral Parliament or Sansad consists of the Council of States or Rajya Sabha (a body consisting of not more than 250 members, up to 12 of which are appointed by the president, the remainder are chosen by the elected members of the state and territorial assemblies; members serve six-year terms) and the People's Assembly or Lok Sabha (545 seats; 543 elected by popular vote, 2 appointed by the president; members serve five-year terms) elections: People's Assembly - last held 20 April through 10 May 2004 (next to be held NA 2009) election results: People's Assembly - percent of vote by party - NA; seats by party - INC 145, BJP 138, CPI(M) 43, SP 36, RJD 21, BSP 19, DMK 16, SS 12, BJD 11, CPI 10, NCP 9, JDU 8, SAD 8, PMK 6, TDP 5, TRS 5, JMM 5, LJSP 4, MDMK 4, independents 5, other 30 Yes, parliamentary democracies are different from what we have in the US, but similar issues arise due to the needs for majorities or supermajorities to pass legislation. Representing a broad range of views is a good thing in a legislature. But ultimately a majority has to rule and that majority shouldn't be held hostage to a tiny fringe minority. Minority governments often are not as moderate as the population as a whole. :-( So I agree that breaking the Republocrat hold on US government would be a good thing in the abstract, but in practice it depends on how it's done. IMHO. Cheers, Scott.
|
Post #180,301
10/21/04 3:00:13 PM
|
The number three is a wonderous thing.
Three branches of government.
Hmm..
Three houses of Congress? Senate, House, and Parliment?
All I want for my birthday is a new President!
|
Post #180,330
10/21/04 6:22:02 PM
|
One major difference:
In these places, IIRC, the Prime Minister (the chief executive-equivalent) is selected by the Parliament; he serves at their pleasure until the next vote of "no confidence" or until the next scheduled election, which ever comes first.
In the US, the Chief Executive would be chosen directly by the electorate, thereby limiting the effect of any nth-party candidates on the selection process. A run-off election will still result in a direct election of the Chief Executive; any nth-party candidates forming Parliamentary-style "coalitions" will mean squat in the "forming of the government"; all it could possibly do is make passing legislation more difficult (which may or may not be a good thing). Note that the concept of a "no confidence" vote will still not exist in the Constitution.
jb4 shrub\ufffdbish (Am., from shrub + rubbish, after the derisive name for America's 43 president; 2003) n. 1. a form of nonsensical political doubletalk wherein the speaker attempts to defend the indefensible by lying, obfuscation, or otherwise misstating the facts; GIBBERISH. 2. any of a collection of utterances from America's putative 43rd president. cf. BULLSHIT
|
Post #180,381
10/21/04 9:46:07 PM
|
Gridlock is preferred
At least by me. When the politicians are deadlocked and can't make substantive change, they also can't do substantive harm. Witness the catastrophe Bush has left us with having full control.
----------------------------------------- How do you convince a Washington Journalist that you're not slapping him in the face?
Tell him you're not.
|
Post #180,384
10/21/04 9:50:08 PM
|
Amen corner on that one
that way too many Iraqis conceived of free society as little more than a mosh pit with grenades. ANDISHEH NOURAEE
|
Post #180,399
10/21/04 11:10:11 PM
|
Exactly why Eisenhower years were so good. :)
Alex
In politics, what begins in fear usually ends in folly. -- Samuel Taylor Coleridge, poet (1772-1834)
|
Post #180,796
10/25/04 4:57:07 AM
|
His numbers are specious
because he just takes the numbers that were and figures out how many electoral votes would have been apportioned proportionally. However, if all electoral votes were apportioned proportionally the nature of the campaign would change dramatically, there would be no swing states, the campaign would have to be conducted on a national level and there would be a much greater incentive for people in a solid state to vote. Therefore the vote numbers would most probably be very different.
|