As for the specific Longhorn junk. Indigo (SOAP) is a mess of a protocol (a kludge all the way down). WinFS is the Registry carried to it's logical conclusion (and totally fuxed). Avalon is only interesting as a mutation of Java that tries to get a Windows lockin by building a higher performance GUI.
You say that as if it meant Avalon won't become the dominant development model. History implies otherwise...messy protocols, fuxored OS subsystems, and constant API mutation are the only way to continue to ride on the coattails of that same Windows lockin. ISV PHBs everywhere will be trampling each other to get Longhorn and Avalon; it's the only way they can continue to make money without having to think or take risks.